June-July electoral type event: Burundi

[politicus]

Following much criticised Presidential elections in mid-June (that we missed), parliamentary elections in late-June (that we, err, also missed) we have an indirect senate elections. I'm going to write a bit more about it, but (after the unrest and attempted coup earlier this year) it seems Burundi is regressing democratically under Pierre.

Okay, is it worth a separate thread? We have an electoral type event thread you could use.

[politicus]

According to wiki the Presidential election is July 21:

"On 8 June 2015, the electoral commission proposed that the date of the presidential election be moved from 26 June to 15 July, delaying the vote by nearly three weeks.

Nkurunziza began his re-election campaign at a rally on 25 June.

On 11 July 2015, in response to requests from regional leaders, the government announced another delay, pushing the vote back by six days to 21 July."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burundian_presidential_election,_2015

http://allafrica.com/stories/201507151893.html

[politicus]

Actually Tanzania Daily News says it has been delayed to July 30.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201507070799.html

"The heads of state from the East African Community (EAC) countries agreed in Dar es Salaam yesterday to postpone the Burundi elections to July 30, as the region's apex body for civil societies dragged President Pierre Nkurunziza before the court over constitutional abuse"

Nkuruziza is before the Arusha-based East African Court of Justice (EACJ) accused of breaching his country's constitution.

EDIT: It is held the 21th anyway. The mediation efforts failed.

[politicus]

So it is today - and there is lots of violence already.

Seven opposition candidates are on the ballot. The four who boycott the election still have their names listed + three nobodies are running.

Just to clarify Pierre Nkurunzizia claimed that his first term did not count towards the two period term limit because he was elected by parliament and the Constitutional Court ruled in favour of this.

"Why it matters" (decent summary of consequences)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33476228

[politicus]

More death and protests against it. A result should be available Thursday, so we can see how high they dare to set his vote share. Official turnout is 74%, comparable to the parliamentary election. This is almost certainly fictitious. The government admit turnout has been low in Bujumbura and the SW Bururi province, but apparently it is somehow magically 85-90% in other provinces.

US State Department: The elections lack credibility and by pressing ahead, the government risks its legitimacy. "The vote will further discredit the government".

[politicus]

Well, no surprise there - a solid win without being NK ridiculous. The only thing I wondered about was what they would set the official turnout to, and I haven't been able to find that.

EDIT: This election result would actually be credible if the turnout was very low due to opposition boycott and violence, but they willl probably set it much higher.

His CNDD-FDD is sending out conciliatory signal to the opposition in order to appease international donors:

1) formation of a national unity government
2) release of jailed demonstrators
3) reopening of private radio stations that were shut during the coup attempt.

But analysts say this wont last long because the opposition has radicalised and expanded and an increasingly paranoid Nkurunziza  has purged his party of intellectuals and moderates (mostly academics and middle class) in favour of hardline ex-guerillas from the civil war.

French academic Christian Thibon says Burundi has degenerated into a lawless society and that it's leadership may "choose to follow the path of the isolationist, paranoid and authoritarian Horn of Africa state of Eritrea."

Being the Eritrea of Central Africa is, well.., a new low.

[politicus]

Turnout was (or rather was set to be) 73.44%!!! Which makes the result officially ridiculous.

It is close to the official turnout for the legislative election which was 74.32%, so I guess that is the level they decided sounded respectable, but it would be quite high even for a free election in Africa held under non-violent circumstances.