Who is next? (user search)
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  Who is next? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which of the following countries in the Middle East and North Africa are likely to see their regimes toppled next?
#1
Morocco
 
#2
Algeria
 
#3
Saudi Arabia
 
#4
Oman
 
#5
United Arab Emirates
 
#6
Qatar
 
#7
Bahrain
 
#8
Kuwait
 
#9
Jordan
 
#10
Iran
 
#11
Sudan
 
#12
Mauritania
 
#13
Chad
 
#14
Lebanon
 
#15
Mali
 
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Total Voters: 14

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Author Topic: Who is next?  (Read 2312 times)
Zioneer
PioneerProgress
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,451
United States


« on: July 20, 2012, 10:17:40 AM »

Yemen doesn't really count anymore, IMO.  It's more than half way to becoming the new Somalia.

I think this is pretty much it for the "Arab Spring," tbh.  The Arabian Peninsula regimes can draw on unlimited cash to buy off dissidents, Morocco and Jordan are making barebones concessions to protestors, etc.

Lebanon might see a Hezbollah coup soon, but I'd hardly count that as a revolution.

Jordan is actually doing really well for reforms, or so I heard, since the King of Jordan is Western-educated and seems to be taking a decent effort to modernize his country. I've heard that Qaboos of Oman is similar, though to a lesser extent.

Agreed on the rest of the regimes though; the Gulf States are basically invincible to dissent at this point, with all the money they can throw around. The Arab Spring, once Assad falls or flees, is over.

The only countries left that could face serious regime change are probably Sudan and/or Mali. Omar al-Bashir could fail spectacularly in his new conflict with South Sudan and have a general or whatnot replace him, and Mali could have enough problems with the Tuaregs that things go pear-shaped (beyond the instability already there). The Coup leaders could try to seize control again, or the Malians could force the appointment of a new leader.
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