CBS/NYT: Romney up 3

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The thing is, it's not that farfetched to assume Romney actually did close the gender gap. Santorum is no longer pulling Romney to the right and the Rosen controversy probably helped Romney win some support from mothers who would have otherwise been complacent.

Moreover, a lot of recent North American elections have shown huge swings in polling. Momentum shifts overnight and candidates surge. We frequently saw it in the primaries. It happened against the Wild Rose folks in Alberta's provincial election. It happened with the NDP surge in Canada's '11 federal election. For whatever reason, numbers swing fast. So why can't Romney be winning women?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I've never seriously called any poll a junk poll. There's no way of knowing how things could turn out, and basing your evaluation on the fact that something changed in a way you didn't predict is pretty weak. Gingrich jumped about 15 points in just over two weeks. Alberta pollsters predicted the White Rose folks would have a majority government--they got in the neighborhood of 20 seats.

The psychology of the race has changed as it has become Romney v. Obama, sans Santorum. While Obama has talked about gay marriage and Osama bin Laden, Romney has hammered home the idea that what's happened to the economy is universal. All I'm saying is things can change.

And I understand that the new trend would seem odd. I just believe the Dems around here would be a little less likely to point it out off the numbness favored Obama. I know there's some hypocrisy in there, but I guess my position is different. To me, a poll is a poll.