Unless President Obama completely collapses as a leader the 2012 election is likely to show why President Obama won in 2008. After all, he remains as slick a communicator as Ronald Reagan. If he can have as effective a campaign apparatus in 2012 as in 2008 (which will depend upon keeping the political base intact) he wins.
To be honest, I remember hearing Obama's speeches and genuinely being impressed. Since then, he kinda seems flat. Perhaps it's age.
I think it has to do with idealistic naivety and then learning the depressing realism of government. Reagan was an actor (professional liars) so he could sell anything with a positive attitude.
1)Obama did a ton of stuff his first two years and the public rejected his actions.
2)Obama doubled down after the historic rejection of the midterms. He has shown zero ability to adapt to CHANGE-ing conditions.
3) He is running a shockingly empty and shallow campaign(and before that his rhetoric). Most people who pay attention are turned off by him. He has basically been sliding downward continuously for 2-3 years now. I can't picture him turning it around because he has never turned it around.
4) Fast-Furious and the National Security leaks are equivalent to Watergate and Iran-contra, respectively. That is a lot of scandal to have going on simultaneously.