Bill Young (FL-13) retiring

[Donerail]

Lean R with Ehrlich (2012 candidate) or Wagman (former St. Pete Mayoral candidate), Tossup with Long (ex-State Rep, County Commish) or Rice (would-be St. Pete City Councilwoman). Lean D with Justice (former candidate for FL-13, ex-State Sen, County Commish), Kriseman (should he lose his mayoral bid; ex-State Rep) or Welch (County Commish), Safe D with Crist (Gov).

Possible Republicans: State Sen. Brandes, Mayor Baker (St. Pete), State Sen. Latvala, Mayor Hibbard (Clearwater), Commish Seel, Commish Morroni, David Jolly (Young aide), or Billy Young (Young's son).

[Donerail]

And we all know that the GOP candidate will most likely be quite conservative, which would be a further drag on Republican chances. Not the type of seat they really want to have open up.

No, we don't all know that, because that's simply false. Pinellas County, long ago, used to be basically the only place the GOP was competitive in Florida - it still maintains much of that legacy, including a very moderate Republican Party relative to the rest of the state/nation.

Unless the GOP nominates Brandes (who is a Tea Party/elected in 2010 guy), they won't be running a conservative. Latvala, he's conservative, but he's not kind of conservative to lose them the seat, he's the kind of conservative who I respect because he has interest in governing. Great guy. And Baker's a widely respected, rather nonpartisan figure on the GOP side; he did great things as St. Pete's Mayor. Hibbard is less well-known in this part of the county, but he served 10 years as Clearwater's Mayor and did a pretty decent job. Seel and Morroni are the sort of Republicans who are also very moderate - Seel has always been pro-fluoride, and Morroni (though unlikely to run due to issues with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma) has changed his fluoride stance and recently endorsed a lesbian Democrat running for St. Pete's City Council. Jolly isn't well known, and Billy Young is probably gonna try for a State House seat instead, but the odds of the Pinellas Rs nominating anyone "quite conservative" besides Brandes is ludicrous.

[Donerail]

Not going to dissect all that, but the fact remains, recent history points to the GOP nominating some poor candidates, it's not outside the realm of possibility, even in "moderate" areas. It's quite a common trend.

Not gonna get off the hook that easy. Find the poor candidate - out of Latvala, Baker, Hibbard, and Seel, which one's the Tea Party loon that's gonna lose them the seat?

[Donerail]

Not going to dissect all that, but the fact remains, recent history points to the GOP nominating some poor candidates, it's not outside the realm of possibility, even in "moderate" areas. It's quite a common trend.

Not gonna get off the hook that easy. Find the poor candidate - out of Latvala, Baker, Hibbard, and Seel, which one's the Tea Party loon that's gonna lose them the seat?

Actually, if all these moderates run won't that give an advantage to Brandes who'll monopolize the conservative vote?

If they all run, yes, but Latvala or Baker would largely clear the field, and both of them have (I feel) a respect for each other that would lead to only one of them running. Both Latvala and Baker are far stronger candidates than Frish - and Brandes is a very strong candidate in his own right. He's more 'actual libertarian' than 'Tea Party loon masquerading as one'.

Is there any confirmation that Crist is running?

For this seat? No, not since he lives in Castor's. For Governor? Yeah, he's running. All but declared.

[Donerail]

Running but not declared? Are there any hints you picked up or feelings you got that he's running?

Running? Absolutely. Plans are underway, fundraisers are being talked to, operatives are being, if not hired, at least promised their jobs (expect Steve Schale).

The FDP will be having their state conference on October 25th. Sink and Nelson (and any other viable Dem candidate) have already opted out. It's possible he'll announce there, but more likely he'll announce in St. Petersburg.  He'll declare after November 1st for sure - that's when donors can now pay $3K instead of $500 per person. But November's also too close to the holidays, and he won't be fundraising during Thanksgiving or the holidays. He's also releasing a book next year, so he'll be able to do a book tour instead (which wouldn't be bound by campaign finance limits). Look for, say, a January announcement.

[Donerail]

Revised Dem prospects: attorney/2012 Congressional candidate Jessica Ehrlich, attorney Ben Diamond, real estate owner/2009 St. Petersburg mayoral candidate Scott Wagman, County Commissioner and fmr. State Rep. Janet Long, County Commissioner and fmr. State Senator (and 2010 Congressional candidate) Charlie Justice, current St. Pete City Council candidate Darden Rice, current St. Pete Mayoral candidate and fmr. State Rep. Rick Kriseman, former Speaker of the State House Peter Wallace, and fmr. Governor Charlie Crist.

Revised GOP prospects list: fmr. Mayor (and rumored Romney HUD pick) Rick Baker (St. Pete), fmr. Mayor Frank Hibbard (Clearwater), County Commissioner Karen Seel, aide to Rep. Young David Jolly, son/State House candidate Billy Young, Mayor and former aide to Rep. Young George Cretekos (Clearwater), and consultant Nick Zoiler.

[Donerail]

I'm confused. Are people talking about Crist as a poitential candidate for FL-13?

Way less risky than a run against Scott. He was willing to give up the governorship for more job security in the Senate seat. Not a bad position for a 2016 Senate run either.

[Donerail]

I'm confused. Are people talking about Crist as a poitential candidate for FL-13?

Way less risky than a run against Scott. He was willing to give up the governorship for more job security in the Senate seat. Not a bad position for a 2016 Senate run either.

Wouldn't 2018 be better when Nelson retires? He'd at least have two terms in the House then.

Nelson'll be 74, so I dunno if he'll retire - he seems pretty healthy and like he could make it to 80, but I'm not sure. If he does retire, though, I'd expect Sink, Dyer, Buckhorn, Brown, and maybe Iorio or Smith to all be looking at the seat. 2016 also could be an open seat if Rubio runs for President.

[Donerail]

Holy crap, I would never have expected this.

Seriously? The guy will be 84 by the next the next House is sworn in. I can't see this as a surprise at all.

There's been talk about C.W. retiring before every race I can remember, and every time he didn't. Always struck me as a lifer.

[Donerail]

Revised Dem prospects: attorney/2012 Congressional candidate Jessica Ehrlich, attorney Ben Diamond, real estate owner/2009 St. Petersburg mayoral candidate Scott Wagman, County Commissioner and fmr. State Rep. Janet Long, County Commissioner and fmr. State Senator (and 2010 Congressional candidate) Charlie Justice, County Commissioner Ken Welch, current St. Pete City Council candidate Darden Rice, current St. Pete Mayoral candidate and fmr. State Rep. Rick Kriseman, former Speaker of the State House Peter Wallace, fmr. CFO Alex Sink, and fmr. Governor Charlie Crist.

Revised GOP prospects list: fmr. Mayor (and rumored Romney HUD pick) Rick Baker (St. Pete), State Sen. Jeff Brandes, State Sen. Jack Latvala, fmr. Mayor Frank Hibbard (Clearwater), fmr. County Commissioner Neil Brickfield, County Commissioner Karen Seel, County Commissioner John Morroni, aide to Rep. Young David Jolly, son/State House candidate Billy Young, wife Beverly Young, Mayor and former aide to Rep. Young George Cretekos (Clearwater), and consultant Nick Zoiler.

Revised and updated - a couple new faces and major decline for the Dems, and a couple big declines for the Rs. Beverly Young has said that she'd run only if Ehrlich is the Dem nominee.

[Donerail]

Add one more name to the Democrats' list - Alex Sink.

[Donerail]

Add one more name to the Democrats' list - Alex Sink.

How likely is she to take this seat?

Schorsch makes it seems like she's likely to run. The district favored her in 2010 (and she should do better than in 2010), but then again she'd be a carpetbagger. I'd be pulling for whoever the Pinellas Dems put up for Pinellas' seat, and I think a lot of people in the county will join me.

[Donerail]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

57.

Sink is all but in.

[Donerail]

Beverly Young must be younger than Bill by a decade if she is going to be running. She can't just start a congressional career at the age of eighty something ?!?

57.

Sink is all but in.

Seriously? We don't need someone who doesn't even live in the district and who lost to Governor Voldemort. Plus, Ehrlich could be a lot better for purposes of party-building in that district, since she'd have more time (being younger and all) in there.

I'm loathe to speak ill of another Democrat, particularly one from my area, but... she demonstrated poor form regarding Young's retirement (and she attacked Young throughout the campaign - not a great move against a respected figure), enough to be named Adam Smith's Loser of the Week. She's never held office, and there have been past issues raised with alleged resume padding and a questionable voting record.

Sink has said she's willing to move into the district, and her previous banking experience (as she pointed out when she said she'd decide within 30 days) was regional. For what it's worth, she did beat Scott in the district.

Best Democratic choice is probably Charlie Justice. He's only 45 but already served on the County Commission and in the State Senate and State House. He's also a native of St. Pete, went to St. Pete College and USF, works at USFSP, is well-known (ran a 2012 countywide race and ran against Young in 2010), and got good press for unseating a crazy person in 2012 (Nancy Bostock). He also seemed to consider running even with a Sink bid, telling the Times that he's "not sure anyone steps aside for anyone."

[Donerail]

Running:
ex State Rep. Larry Crow (R)


Not Running:
Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch (D)
Ex State House Speaker Rudy Wallace (D)
St. Petersburg mayoral nominee Rick Kriseman (D)


Alex Sink says she will decide in "weeks, not days" whether to run for the seat. I also hope she doesn't run, as I would prefer Justice as well.

Crow represented companies that let you observe the behaviors of women via the Internet sans clothing, as well as gambling interests. Shouldn't be a tough R candidate. And I wouldn't expect Kriseman to run - he's running for Mayor because his family wanted him to take a job closer to home, and Congress would be absolutely opposite to all of that. Welch, of course, would've had to move to run for the seat. Sink says "weeks, not days". The specific number of weeks is <4.

[Donerail]

Sink leads all contenders

Ugh. Disappointed they only tested Sink and Ehrlich.

[Donerail]

As she should. I would be much more surprised if the strongest Democrat not already in office in the state WASN'T leading.

Against the strongest Republican (well, area Republican at least) not already in office?

Also, Ehrlich raised 100K last period.