Not sure why D's are so excited about FL:
2012 EV
Obama +3
2012 ED
Romney +2.1%
Result
Obama +0.9%
2016 EV
Clinton +1%
2016 ED
Lets cut the Romney number to 0.6% and say Trump +1.5% election day. I would argue Trump will do even better election day in FL than Romney did but this is just to show why Trump is in great position to take FL.
Result:
Trump wins FL by 0.5%
You're conflating "Democrat" with "Obama" here. The EV edge for Democrats in 2012 was built in part on turnout among Democrats who did not vote for Obama. Democrats won the early vote in Liberty County with over 70% of the vote, but the majority of those Democrats ain't voting like it. After accounting for registration shifts since 2012, Democrats are in a better position now than they were at this point last cycle.
