GOP: your dreams of recapturing Virginia are just that

[hopper]

It will slowly become another CO.  The GOP got caught in the '70s demographically and now they have nowhere to go.

Well 80's.

No I think Colorado will probably continue to be a swing state. VA is probably going trend to the Dems more and more as the years go by.

[hopper]

Loudon County was pretty close to the State Average Presidential Results in 2008 and 2012 so as Loudon County goes as the state goes in terms of the Presidential Results I guess.

What's interesting about Loudon County is the Demography of the county vs the state average

Loudon County         State Average

White: 69%              64%
Black: 7%                 20%
Hispanic 12%            8%
Asian 15%                 6%

Loudon and Prince William are pretty Republican on the State and Local Level except for the State Senate where as Fairfax County is pretty solid D on all levels of government in the state.

[hopper]

Everybody says black turnout was high because Obama of in VA. That may simply be not true because 21% of blacks showed up to vote in VA in 2004 and Bush W. did win 13% of the black vote in the state that year. The black turnout in VA for Obama was 20% which Obama won 92-6% both in 2008 and 2012. So the point in the 2010 Census is that the Black Population grew by 13%(along with the state average of 12%) but that black turnout peaked in 2004 of 21% and Blacks make up 20% of Virginia's population at the end of the decade. The numbers just don't add up and I don't think in 2004 the Blacks made up 20% of the VA's population unless theBlack population flat lined in VA in the second half of the 2000's.

[hopper]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/arlington-county-among-fastest-growing-in-virginia/

"The densely populated Northern Virginia suburbs, close to the District, accounted for half of the state’s overall growth of 259,381 residents since 2010. Fairfax, the state’s largest jurisdiction, grew by 35,171 people to more than 1.1 million residents. Prince William County’s population grew by 29,256, a 7.3 percent increase to 431,258 residents. Alexandria’s population of 151,218 was an 8 percent increase that amounted to 11,252 new residents."

It's ok, with Obama's war on coal, you are sure to pick up votes in Southwest Virginia... OH WAIT...

"Ms. Cai said 33 Virginia localities — most of them outside the state’s urban areas — lost population. All seven of Virginia’s coal-producing counties lost residents from 2012 to 2013, the report said."

So now it seems the five inner counties of NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudon) are about 28% of the statewide population.  This doesn't include a few other NOVA cities/municipalities, so NOVA is probably about 30% of the state population to date... at least the heavily democratic part of NOVA is...

At this rate NOVA proper will be about 33% by 2020.  When you add in Richmond and its inner suburbs + some heavily democratic college towns, you are at about 40% of the state population. 

DC is about at capacity so this growth will probably just accelerate... especially after the silver line going deep into Fairfax is constructed.

Basically by 2020 the state population will be about:

40% living in very democratic areas.

30-35% living in swing areas (i.e., Virginia Beach area and outer Richmond/NOVA burbs).

25-30% living in very republican areas.

Obviously it's almost impossible for Republicans to win with that kind of math

You posted several numbers, but lets look at some numbers that you have decided to ignore.

Virginia Representation in the US House of Representatives: 8 Republicans 3 Democrats

Virginia Representation in the State House: 67 Republicans 32 Democrats

The State Senate is even at 20 Senators each.

With numbers like these, I find it rather funny to state that a republican couldn't win in Virginia.

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

2 things:

1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...

There were polls last November, that showed that if the election would have been held in 2013 instead of 2012, Romney would have won.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/19/president-romney-yes-if-the-election-were-held-today/

The only thing your "argument" proves is that the house and senate are gerrymandered, what do district races have to do with a statewide vote.  While you're at it why don't you explain how New York is a battleground state because the map is mostly republican except for those little dots on it like New York City.

Why would democrats need to win a major of districts to win the electoral votes... when they are winning the major population centers 2 to 1.

Oh I know why, because you guys want to rig the electoral college now so the votes are allocated based on congressional district, having just realized you have no hope of winning the White House anytime soon.

Rigging Electoral College? Only 2 states have electoral college based on House Districts won and that's one blue state(Maine) and Nebraska(A red state.) Those are small states granted....

[hopper]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/arlington-county-among-fastest-growing-in-virginia/

"The densely populated Northern Virginia suburbs, close to the District, accounted for half of the state’s overall growth of 259,381 residents since 2010. Fairfax, the state’s largest jurisdiction, grew by 35,171 people to more than 1.1 million residents. Prince William County’s population grew by 29,256, a 7.3 percent increase to 431,258 residents. Alexandria’s population of 151,218 was an 8 percent increase that amounted to 11,252 new residents."

It's ok, with Obama's war on coal, you are sure to pick up votes in Southwest Virginia... OH WAIT...

"Ms. Cai said 33 Virginia localities — most of them outside the state’s urban areas — lost population. All seven of Virginia’s coal-producing counties lost residents from 2012 to 2013, the report said."

So now it seems the five inner counties of NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudon) are about 28% of the statewide population.  This doesn't include a few other NOVA cities/municipalities, so NOVA is probably about 30% of the state population to date... at least the heavily democratic part of NOVA is...

At this rate NOVA proper will be about 33% by 2020.  When you add in Richmond and its inner suburbs + some heavily democratic college towns, you are at about 40% of the state population. 

DC is about at capacity so this growth will probably just accelerate... especially after the silver line going deep into Fairfax is constructed.

Basically by 2020 the state population will be about:

40% living in very democratic areas.

30-35% living in swing areas (i.e., Virginia Beach area and outer Richmond/NOVA burbs).

25-30% living in very republican areas.

Obviously it's almost impossible for Republicans to win with that kind of math

You posted several numbers, but lets look at some numbers that you have decided to ignore.

Virginia Representation in the US House of Representatives: 8 Republicans 3 Democrats

Virginia Representation in the State House: 67 Republicans 32 Democrats

The State Senate is even at 20 Senators each.

With numbers like these, I find it rather funny to state that a republican couldn't win in Virginia.

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

2 things:

1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...

There were polls last November, that showed that if the election would have been held in 2013 instead of 2012, Romney would have won.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/19/president-romney-yes-if-the-election-were-held-today/

The only thing your "argument" proves is that the house and senate are gerrymandered, what do district races have to do with a statewide vote.  While you're at it why don't you explain how New York is a battleground state because the map is mostly republican except for those little dots on it like New York City.

Why would democrats need to win a major of districts to win the electoral votes... when they are winning the major population centers 2 to 1.

Oh I know why, because you guys want to rig the electoral college now so the votes are allocated based on congressional district, having just realized you have no hope of winning the White House anytime soon.

Rigging Electoral College? Only 2 states have electoral college based on House Districts won and that's one blue state(Maine) and Nebraska(A red state.) Those are small states granted....

You're obviously missing the point.  A plethora of Republican led states are trying to change the electoral college rules in those states (See, e.g. - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc.)...

It seems Republicans know full well they are no longer competitive in the electoral college and now want to change the rules.

That's the key word "trying. Did the change the rules yet? No. There are always proposals by Democrats and Republicans that never see the light of day.

[hopper]

Well, in response to your argument about Republicans not winning Senate seats in Virginia, the state does seem to have a history of voting for Democratic senators, even when the state voted for Republicans at the presidential level. For one, Chuck Robb (D) defeated Oliver North (R) in 1994 while the Republicans won the Senate. Now, you could say that Oliver North was a weak candidate, but another rather weak candidate, Bob Dole, managed to win Virginia in 1996, albeit narrowly. It seems like Virginia just has stronger Democrats in office. You have Mark Warner, arguably an excellent Governor, who was elected just a few months after 9/11. Considering Bush 43 had sky-high approval ratings then, I believe Mark Warner's election has more to do with his individual strength as a candidate than Virginia's perception of the GOP. Virginia seems like it will continue to remain a swing state; I would expect it to vote for a Democrat if that Democrat won the presidential election, but I would suspect that if a Republican won the election, their path to victory would run through Virginia, especially since it was one of the closest states in 2012 (Obama won by 3.87%).

Some say Robb won in 1994 because of a third party candidate(Marshall Coleman) who had lost the 1989 VA Governor's race to Doug Wilder(D) as a Republican. Robb did win his first term in the US Senate without influence of a third party candidate and was also a previous Governor of Virginia as well.

I think if the Republicans can win more of the Asian and Hispanic Vote in NOVA they will be competitive there(not sure if they can win the state but they will be competitive), if they can't its gonna be hard to start off losing Blacks 90-8% to a Generic D(just throwing numbers out there) every election in the state.

I saw a map on the net which says VA will be a swing state in 2060. Not sure if I believe that or not.