Which state will be first to go Democrat on a national level?

[BaldEagle1991]

Georgia, because of the blacks and Northern Whites moving into Atlanta.

But Texas isn't too far behind, with Hispanics and Northern Whites moving into Austin and Houston.

Although one thing to note is that GA is surprisingly less religious, church going, and less wealthy than Texas overall, that right there are other non-racial factors.

[BaldEagle1991]

When do you think Texas could possibly flip? Shortly after Georgia does?

[BaldEagle1991]

When do you think Texas could possibly flip? Shortly after Georgia does?

Well, there's really no way to determine exactly when a state "flips." You can really only go by Presidential elections every four years. And trends can get in the way. You could say that California flipped in 1988, even though it didn't vote D until 1992.

And I don't think Texas or Georgia will ever completely flip. Neither one will ever be blue states, as the strains of social and economic conservatism are just too strong to be completely overpowered. But  I do think both will become swing states. Georgia could become a majority/minority state by 2020, and when that happens we will have definitely flipped.

 Texas is already majority/minority, but a flip will depend on higher Hispanic turnout and keeping them in the D column. Stronger growth in liberal cities like Austin could also speed up the process. It might also help Democrats if the economy continues to diversity and is no longer dominated by the conservative oil and gas industry.

But you have to remember, Texas is a state that Clinton never flipped, was won by Bush with well over 60% in 2000 and 2004, and Obama lost by about 10 points. It will take a while for demographic trends to overcome that legacy, so probably more than 10-15 years. But it can happen, I mean look at California.

I can see. I have to agree with you that the states can't be blue states like MA or CA, but potential future swing states like OH or FL.

Although coming from TX, I know the economy is continuing to diversify, but many of the economic sectors that is being diversified here are also conservative leaning, such as weapon/gun making, religious publishing, and military. I know the film and tech industries are coming here too, but in small amounts and it's mostly in either Dallas or Austin.

The only hope I think for many of these states is their minority populations, and growing Northern/Left Coast white populations as well. It's going to be much harder for TX though as Hispanics tend to have a lower turnout rate, but it could happen.

[BaldEagle1991]

The energy sectors in Texas were about the only industries in the country that actually did better in the recession. So even as Texas diversifies its economy, those sectors are still growing and powerful, which could prolong the state's GOP tilt. Now in Georgia's case, if Construction and banking never recover, they will be replaced by other sectors that are more liberal, which would flip the state like NC in 2008.

I'm expecting an oil industry collapse sometime soon, then you will see a large economic diversification that would even include the liberal leaning industries.

[BaldEagle1991]

I guess that makes sense. The same could be said for California staying red for as long as it did.

But Texas isn't California. 2008 might have shown a reversion to normal long term trends in Texas, meaning that the Democratic floor is higher than it used to be, around 43-44 as opposed to the high 30s during the Bush era. And if that's the case, then Texas will still take time to flip, if it does at all.

I guess it should be noted that the Republican party won't give up their two most electorally rich reliable states without a fight (In 2008, Georgia and Texas were the biggest prizes for McCain). Losing those states from their column would certainly make them a minority party at the presidential level. If the GOP doesn't evolve to bring hispanics and other minorities into the fold, you will almost certainly see these two states become tossup. I think it will take a while for these minority groups to truly warm to the party, but it will probably happen eventually, for the sake of the party's survival.

Still, if Texas and Georgia continue to attract people of all races, ethnicities, religions and ideologies, they will continue to become more of a microcosm of the country as a whole, which will make them swing states regardless.

When that happens, I guarantee you'll see some of the Democratic old white men come back.

[BaldEagle1991]

So if they both became swing states, than theoretically the unofficial party HQ s would move from Dallas and Atlanta to where? Indianapolis? Denver?
 

Woodbury, Minnesota.