EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Velasco]

Turnout in Spain at 14:00 (CET): 23.89% (-0.21%)

Record turnout in Catalonia: 25.26%(+5.91%). Increase in Basque Country (+1.04%), Navarre (+0.81%) and Andalusia (+0.37%). Decrease in the rest of regions: Murcia (-3.41%), Extremadura (-3.12%), Castilla y León (-2.77%), Canaries (-2.49%), Madrid (-2.07%), Valencia (-1.88%), Galicia (-1,26%), etc.

[Velasco]

Turnout figures in Spain look not very good for PP. At 18:00 it was 34.05% (+0.26%) and the trend of differential regional turnout continues. Turnout in Catalonia was 35,52% (+8,75%), whereas in PP strongholds is decreasing.

[Velasco]

Spain (97.9% counted)

PP 26% (-16.2%) 16 (-8) (EPP)

PSOE 23% (-15.8%) 14 (-9) (S&D)

IU-ICV 10% (+6.3%) 6 (+4) ( 5 GUE-NGL, 1 Greens/EFA)

PODEMOS 7.95% 5 (+5)!!! (GUE-NGL)

UPyD 6.5% (+3.6%) 4 (+3) (NI)

CiU+PNV+CC 5.45% (+0.35%) 3 (nc) (2 ALDE, 1 EPP)

ERC 4.1% 2 (+1) (Greens/EFA)

Cs 3.2% 2 (+2) (NI)
 
EHBildu+BNG 2.1% 1 (+1) (?)

Compromís+Equo 1.9% 1 (+1) (Greens/EFA)

[Velasco]

Spain (99.77% counted)

PP 26.06% 16 seats, PSOE 23% 14, IU 9.99% 6, PODEMOS 7.97% 5, UPyD 6.5% 4, CiU+PNV+CC 5.44%, ERC 4.02% 2, Cs 3.16% 2, EHBildu+BNG 2.07% 1, PE (Compromís+Equo) 1.91% 1, Vox 1.56% 0.

By group: EPP 17 (16 PP, 1 UDC), S&D 14 (PSOE), GUE-NGL 10 (5 IU, 5 Podemos), Greens/EFA 4 (2 ERC, 1 ICV, 1 Compromís-Equo), ALDE 2 (1 CDC, 1 PNV), Others 7 (UPyD, Cs, EH Bildu)

By region.

Andalusia: PSOE 35.12%, PP 25.89%, IU 11.62%, UPyD 7.13%, PODEMOS 7.11%, Cs 1.73%, PA 1.69%, Vox 1.2%, PE (Equo) 0.95%

Catalonia: ERC 23.67%, CiU 21.86%, PSC-PSOE 14.28%, ICV-EUiA 10.3%, PP 9.81%, Cs 6.28%, PODEMOS 4.66%, UPyD 1.29%

Madrid: PP 29.88%, PSOE 18.94%, PODEMOS 11.28%, UPyD 10.56%, IU 10.51%, Cs 4.8%, Vox 3.64%, PE (Equo) 1.99%

Valencia: PP 29.09%, PSOE 21,63%, IU 10.35%, UPyD 8.47%, PODEMOS 8.24%, PE (Compromís) 7.94%, Cs 2.93%, Vox 1.71%

Basque Country: PNV 27.45%, EH Bildu 23.35%, PSOE 13.78%, PP 10.21%, PODEMOS 6.9%, IU 5.56%, UPyD 3.28%, PE (Equo) 1.54%.

Galicia: PP 35.16%, PSOE 21.73%, AGE (IU) 10.52%, PODEMOS 8.34%, BNG 7.9%, UPyD 3.47%, Cs 1.61%

Castilla y León: PP 37.61%, PSOE 23.39%, UPyD 8.36%, IU 8.31%, PODEMOS 8.17%, Cs 2.67%, Vox 2.5%, PE (Equo) 0.9%

Castilla La Mancha: PP 37.7%, PSOE 28.73%, IU 8.67%, UPyD 7.2%, PODEMOS 6.35%, Cs 2.22%, Vox 1.46%

Canaries: PP 23.34%, PSOE 22.24%, CC 12.21%, PODEMOS 10.99%, IU 10.47%, UPyD 6.91%

Aragon: PP 27.85%, PSOE 24.32%, PODEMOS 9.51%, IU 9.41%, UPyD 8.53%, PE (CHA) 4.49%, Cs 2.91%, Vox 2.33%

Extremadura: PSOE 38.72%, PP 35.54%, IU 6.28%, UPyD 5.44%, PODEMOS 4.79%

Murcia: PP 37.47%, PSOE 20.7%, IU 9.73%, UPyD 9.46%, PODEMOS 7.58%, Cs 3.62%, Vox 2.32%

Balearic Islands: PP 27.45%, PSOE 22.01%, PODEMOS 10.3%, IU 8.86%, ERC 7.25%, UPyD 6.69%, Cs 2.29%, PE (Equo) 2.07%

Asturias: PSOE 26.06%, PP 24.11%, PODEMOS 13.67%, IU 12.93%, UPyD 6.02%, FAC 4.24%, Cs 2.49%

Navarre: PP 25.11%, EHBildu 20.08%, PSOE 14.51%, IU 9.51%, PODEMOS 9.35%, UPyD 4.58%, PNV 2.52%

Cantabria: PP 34.68%, PSOE 24.27%, PODEMOS 9.2%, IU 8.97%, UPyD 8.18%, Cs 3%, Vox 1.79%, PE (Equo) 1.3%

La Rioja: PP 38.48%, PSOE 23.67%, UPyD 8.98%, IU 8.11%, PODEMOS 7.48%, Cs 2.25%, Vox 1.39%, PE (Equo) 1.3%

Ceuta: PP 40.34%, PSOE 22.54%, PE 8.96%, UPyD 6.82%, PODEMOS 3.68%, IU 3.36%, Cs 2.41%, Vox 1.74%

Melilla: PP 43.97%, PSOE 25.21%, UPyD 6.85%, Vox 5.96%, IU 3.33%, PODEMOS 2.93%; PE (Equo) 2.02%, Cs 1.84%

[Velasco]

Podemos and their young leader Pablo Iglesias confirmed they are joining GUE-NGL.


http://www.publico.es/politica/523095/podemos-acuerda-con-tsipras-entrar-en-el-grupo-de-la-izquierda-unitaria-de-la-eurocamara

According to the above article GUE-NGL will get all 6 of the IU seats, but perhaps the writer made a mistake.
I'm interested in seeing whether the success of Podemos and IU and the failure of PSOE can lead to changes in Spanish politics.

http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.politics&id=1970

That article is wrong. The 'Izquierda Plural' list won 6 seats (4 IU, 1 ICV, 1 Anova). The IU and Anova (AGE, Galicia) elected MEPs will join GUE-NGL, but ICV is member of the European Greens and will join their group as usual.

I don't know how the success of Podemos will change Spanish politics, but I think it's impossible that things will remain the same. Pablo Iglesias may be 'radical', 'demagogue', 'messianic' or whatever but I am happy for the Podemos result because the Spanish political class needs a kick on the ass, including the 'official' alternatives for the PP-PSOE rule (the ambiguous UPyD and the PCE-controlled IU). Podemos ("We Can") was born as a political party only 3 or 4 months ago and is still under construction. There's a lot of enthusiasm among its membership and they ran an excellent campaign with very little money. Podemos and IU had talks before the elections, but they ran separately because IU rejected a Podemos' proposal on open primaries to elect the candidates (PCE's hierarchy abhors such things). I think the result of IU and Podemos running in coalition would not have been so good (they got 18% running separately). The Pablo Iglesias' party managed to attract many abstentionists. Podemos can be considered a heir and a consequence of the 15M Movement of 2011 and perhaps Pablo Iglesias may become in the Spanish Tsipras.

The election result has had consequences in PSOE. Rubalcaba called for an extraordinary party convention and will quit from PSOE's leadership. Criticism arose from potential candidates like Carme Chacón and Eduardo Madina, because they want open primaries before the party convention. Apparently, Rubalcaba's decision to call PSOE's convention before the primaries was due to pressures from the Andalusian premier Susana Díaz. PSOE had a decent result in its traditional stronghold and Díaz is one of the strongest contenders for national leadership. Susana Díaz will play with advantage in a convention, because she controls the main party's federation which has a lot of delegates. Postponing the primaries makes no sense if you want to open the party and recover people's confidence -in my opinion, this decision is a fiasco-. Anyway the establishment works according its own logic and interests.

[Velasco]

It's still a great swindle. I remember a debate where Martin Schultz assured that any person picked to be president of the EC who wasn't among the 5 candidates discussing there would be rejected by the EP. The others, including Juncker, agreed. Does he keep his word or lack honour?

[Velasco]

Jean-Claude Juncker has been confirmed president of the Commission, winning 422 votes out of 751 in the EP. He collected votes from the EPP (including Orbán), the S&D (except Labour and PSOE), most of ALDE and even some Greens. The Spanish socialists voted against Juncker by petition of Pedro Sánchez, the new PSOE leader elected on Sunday in a primary held amongst the militancy. Some veterans MEPs like Ramón Jáuregui -who stated that "it wasn't an easy decision"- were restless because they say they didn't want to vote in the same way as Marine Le Pen, but they obeyed the new leadership.

[Velasco]

the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

I'm afraid I was deceived by a false friend (indeed, 'militancia' and 'miltancy' are not exactly the same thing). I guess 'membership' is correct too. Anyway, the PSOE 'activists' elected a new leader called Pedro Sánchez Castejón (42), who defeated Eduardo Madina (38) and other candidate from the left faction . He's economist, skillful in political marketing and has been an unknown backbencher to date. It's possible that he's a man of the Andalusia premier, Susana Díaz. He received huge support in that region and also other regional leaders backed his candidacy. Sánchez claims that his models are Felipe González and Matteo Renzi.   

[Velasco]

Oh yes, they have many programmatic coincidences with Syriza. The Economist defines Podemos as the "internet-savvy" equivalent in Spain of the Greek 'radical' left, which The Very Serious paper says it's far-left. Others define Podemos as "left-wing anti-austerity" or a "left-wing party with a far-left base" The effect caused by Podemos I'd say is something like a conmotion and  last polls indicate the party is at a popularity peak. PP and the right have chosen frontal attack, criticising the "far-left populism" and some Pablo Iglesias statements on ETA (he said terrorism has a political motivation and the right says that's a justification). Also, they claim that Podemos and Iglesias have been financed by Venezuela (the EP campaign was cheap and financed by internet crowfunding, according to Podemos). I think PP hopes that the fear of Podemos might mobilise abstentionists in the right, which damaged seriously the ruling party on May 25. The PSOE was directly affected by Podemos, but I wouldn't be good for them using the same tactic. Pedro Sánchez, the new leader-elect, has stated that Podemos is a "respectable force" but criticising the "populistic" economic proposals, because he considers "they might lead Spain to the Crash of 1929" and destroy the economy. I guess that gives an idea of how PSOE will approach the problem. Podemos calls the two ruling parties "La Casta" (The Caste). One of the first effects caused by the surge of Podemos, aside Rubalcaba retirement for the bad result, is the enforcement of primaries and other sorts of 'direct democracy' inside PSOE and IU. The last party disdained open primaries because the IU leadership considered them "an American invention", but they have changed their minds and gave more power to young deputy Alberto Garzón in order to approach Podemos.

It's not sure if there will be a left-wing coalition between IU, Podemos and other parties in the forthcoming elections. On the other hand, such coalition might not have the same result achieved in the EP elections separately; some of Podemos voters might not like it. One of the possible explanations of the Podemos' success is the so-called 'volatile left', a concept coined in 2007 by sociologist César Molinas (link below). According to him, there's a wide and heterogeneous group of left-wing voters disenchanted and uncomfortable with the 'institutional left' (PSOE and IU) which oscillates between both parties and abstention. The 'volatile left' has as common dennominators: a) outright rejection of PP and the right; and b) disdain for PSOE, a party to which they vote occasionally covering their noses. That theory is somewhat controversial for some sociologists, but I think it can explain the mobilisation in favour of Podemos in the last EP elections.

http://elpais.com/diario/2007/11/11/opinion/1194735611_850215.html

It's quite interesting the last CIS survey, which shows that support for Podemos is widespread across social classes, whereas there's a negative correlation between income and support for PSOE. Podemos is particularly strong amongst young, urban and educated people (between 18 and 34), but not only. It also has a good share amongst not so young people (34-54) and little amongst the elder (65+). PP has exactly the opposite age group distribution; extremely weak in the younger and strong in the elder.  According to CIS, amongst Podemos' voters unemployed have a share similar to the current unemployment rate (26.5%), but the new party is very strong amongst precarious workers that perceive that likely they are going to lose their current jobs (23.5%).

[Velasco]

Re PARTEI

http://www.taz.de/Martin-Sonneborn-ueber-seinen-neuen-Job/!141709/

So, he's breaking his campaign promise of resigning his seat after 30 days in parliament? Just like any party, DIE PARTEI is just after the power and the money!!!

Rebuilt the Wall in Berlin now.

[Velasco]

Thanks for the info Velasco.  I am definitely a Podemos supporter now.

I have mixed feelings and I'm ambivalent about Podemos. Trying to explain why would be definitely off-topic and, in any case, I need some time to clarify my own position.

[Velasco]

LOL, glorious news! Cañete has been appointed Commisioner for Climate Action and Energy. Definetely, the EC is a joke. As we say here, que Dios nos coja confesados.

[Velasco]

I think most of the success of this commission will depend on the vice-presidents. These 'super-commissioners' are a new thing, we will see how it works.

As for Canete, he was the candidate put forward by the Spanish goverment, so Juncker had to chose him, but is he going to be accepted by the European Parliament? They need the socialists to approve as well to get a majority.

Exactly, those country-based power quotas are part of the joke. It seems that Cañete is going to be subordinated to vice-president Alenka Bratusek, from Slovenia. I know nothing about her. As for the approval from the EP, as far as I know the issue was the few women in the EC. At first, I have no reason to think that European socialists are going to reject Cañete. PSOE might oppose him symbolically -previously the party voted against Juncker-, but at the moment I haven't read anything suggesting that. However, PSOE MEP Iratxe García stated that they are going to investigate if there exists conflict of interests, because Cañete is the chairman of the board of directors in two Spanish oil enterprises and owns 2.5% of their capital. That is another part of the joke and it might provoke his rejection, hypothetically. Juncker says that he doesn't consider it. We'll see.

What was Conete like as an environment minister? I know about the "debating with women" idiocy, but was he a known tool before the gaffe as well?

Cañete was minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment. He had previous gaffes, but not regarding women. Juncker said that from his first speeches, everybody will know that he's not who people thinks he is. Don't discard another funny stories, just in case.

('Conete' sounds funny in Spanish. If I put a 'ñ', it would be an obscenity)