Turkish Presidential Election: August 10, 2014 (user search)
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  Turkish Presidential Election: August 10, 2014 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Turkish Presidential Election: August 10, 2014  (Read 13637 times)
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 15, 2014, 05:36:51 PM »

I lurked in that blog of James in Turkey the other day. I feel somewhat disappointed because little has been said on my favourite candidate (Demirtas). The Kurdish opposition is clearly better than AKP and the Kemalists.
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Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
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Western Sahara


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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2014, 12:52:34 PM »

I wonder about the young liberals who demonstrated against Erdogan. Despite being Kurd, Demirtas must have some potential among this population right?

It's possible. Demirtas got 9.1% in Istanbul, almost doubling the HDP result in the local election held in March (4.8%). If you compare the district results, Demirtas improved remarkably in some 'westernised' areas like Besiktas (HDP 1.7%/ Dem 6.7%), Kadiköy (1.8% to 6%) or Sisli (4.1% to 9.9%). In Beyoglu, where is located the Gezi Park, Demirtas got 13.1% (HDP 7.3% in the local election). Demirtas did better in Esenyurt on the European side (17.2%) and Sultanbeyli on the Asian side (16.2%), both working class. Sultanbeyli was the district where Erdogan did better (69.6%) and the only one where Ihsanoglu came third (14.2%). It's a fast growing suburb (82k in 1990, 298k in 2011) settled by migrants from Bulgaria since 1945, according to Wikipedia. The Turkish version says nothing on the proportion of Kurdish population there, although it gives some interesting historical details.

Notably hilarious result in Sultanbeyli where Ihsanoglu actually came third, hahaha.

To be fair, CHP and MHP did even worse in the local elections coming 5th and 6th behind Felicity Party and HDP. Great map, btw.
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Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,739
Western Sahara


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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2014, 03:32:50 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2014, 01:37:35 PM by Velasco »

Vote shifts between the March local elections and the August presidential election. 28% of MHP voters shifted to Erdogan.


Sources: http://cilekagaci.com/  (Turk)

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/explained-turkeys-presidential-election-results-in-a-nutshell.aspx?pageID=238&nID=70588&NewsCatID=338 (Eng)
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Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,739
Western Sahara


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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2014, 03:32:36 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2014, 03:46:12 PM by Velasco »

There's an IPSOS post-election survey. My comprehension of Turkish language equals zero, but Demirtas' voters -considering the last local elections- seem to come from:

HDP-BDP 76%, AKP 9%, CHP 7%, MHP 1%, Others 7%.

http://www.cnnturk.com/fotogaleri/turkiye/ipsos-cumhurbaskanligi-secimi-sandik-sonrasi-arastirmasi?page=28

Note that Demirtas does pretty well with abstainers in the graph, better than the other two candidates.

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Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,739
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2014, 08:32:33 AM »


Quite interesting. On what the author considers one of his main mistakes (Syria), the surge of ISIS has had the consequence of a de facto alliance between Turkey and the KRG (the Kurdish regional authority in northern Iraq).

I've read this article on Davutoglu the other day. It's a bit old (2009), but it provides a couple of clues on the principles behind Turkey's foreign policy (the 'strategic depth'). It's clear that the man has his own ideas, albeit Erdogan has (ahem) a strong personality.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34754#.VAcWGsJ5NOI
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