He'd definitely survive any vote in the Senate, as there are nowhere close to 2/3 of the Senate willing to convict and remove the President. As for impeachment itself, I would urge the House to move forward with impeachment hearings and proceed with a vote prior to November. I would be downright ecstatic to see John Boehner hand over the Speaker's gavel back to Nancy Pelosi.
I agree with you about Obama surviving an impeachment vote in the Senate. No Democrats would vote in favor of it and the only Republican's who would likely support it would be Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Jim Inhofe, Jeff Sessions and maybe Tim Scott and Rand Paul.
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