2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[MATTROSE94]

2016
Safe Republican:
Alabama
Idaho
Kansas
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Likely Republican:
Alaska (would be Tossup if Joe Miller primaries Lisa Murkowski and faces off against Mark Begich)
Arkansas
Georgia
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri

Lean Republican:
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina

Tossup:
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Lean Democrat:
Illinois
Wisconsin

Likely Democrat:
California (would be Safe Democrats were it not for the slight possibility that both of the candidates could turn out to be Republicans due to the primary election system that California has)

Safe Democrat:
Connecticut
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Oregon
Vermont
Washington

[MATTROSE94]

Here are my preliminary ratings:

Safe D
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Vermont

Strong D
Oregon
Washington

Lean D
California
Connecticut

Toss-Up
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Lean R
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
North Carolina

Strong R
Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
North Dakota
South Carolina
Utah

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Oklahoma
South Dakota

I think Ayotte will win, even if Hassan runs for senate. 

Not sure. It will be  very close. Ayotte moderated substantially since her 2010 cmpaign, but still - not sure.

Agreed. NH is still a very difficult state for Republicans to win.

Since when? Bush carried it in 2000 and lost it by the barest of margins in 2004.

You predictions look very accurate at this point, but I might move Pennsylvania to lean Republican and Wisconsin and Illinois to lean Democrat.