In the end I think Trump and possibly Cruz will say enough stupid things to lose the state to Hillary. That said, it will not be a tipping point and is the Dems pretty clear 347th electoral vote.
Also get the feeling that southern whites will hold up well for Cruz/Trump while northern whites would swing D, possibly considerably in rich suburbs. NC also doesn't have many Hispanics and black turnout could fall slightly, although more minorities will be eligible voters in 2016 than 2012. A state like FL is a bigger risk for Trump/Cruz where Hispanics will be like 3% greater and whites 3% less than 2012 and Romney already got 39% of them (mostly older Cubans).
Trump or Cruz could easily make up for losing North Carolina by picking up Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado.
