The Future is Here!

[Maxwell]

Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) - 51.7%, 332 EV's
Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - 46.2%, 206 EV's

In a result that is not shocking, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will defeat Vice President Joe Biden. Both candidates were exceedingly unpopular, with Romney being viewed as an out of touch wealthy guy, and Biden being viewed as an old coot who constantly stumbled and bumbled in and out. Romney was the only Republican with significant monetary resources, so even with an upset Scott Walker win in Iowa, Romney squashed the rest of the GOP field. Meanwhile, health problems caused Hillary Clinton to leave the race, and after a long slog of a primary, Joe Biden beat Martin O'Malley and Amy Klobuchar for the nomination. Biden's penchant for gaffes and the Obama administrations continued mismanagement of ISIS and healthcare had caused Biden major troubles on the campaign trail, often trailing by double digits. Biden soared to a lead after the debates, but allegations of sexual harassment made Biden's numbers fall once again, and Mitt Romney pulled a major upset when he won Minnesota. Still, Romney's coat tails weren't as strong as even the weak prediction most pundits had for them.

"We have a shocking call to make tonight - Even as Mitt Romney wins Florida handily, One Term Congresswoman Gwen Graham will unseat incumbent Senator Marco Rubio and become Florida's next Senator. This is quite a turn of a events in a race that nobody saw coming. I'm looking at this and saying, man, people are going to be looking to Graham as the future of the Democratic Party."



2016 Florida Senate Election
49.9% Graham
49.4% Rubio

[Maxwell]

I will post the full results of the Senate in 2016 tomorrow. Get ready for some shockers.

[Maxwell]

Senate Results
D+3

Senate
51 R's
46 D's
2 I's

AL - 58% Roby, 41% Bell
AK - 52% McGuire, 45% Begich
AZ - 49% Schweikert, 47% Giffords
AR - 61% Boozman, 36% McDaniel
CA - 54% Garcetti, 46% Nunes
CO - 49% Bennet, 45% Tipton
CT - 68% Blumenthal, 29% Some Dude
FL - 50% Graham, 49% Rubio
GA - 54% Isakson, 42% Barrow
HI - 100% Schatz   
ID - 52% Labrador, 43% Balukoff
IL - 51% Bustos, 47% Kirk
IN - 52% Stutzman, 46% Buttigeg
IA - 68% Grassley, 30% Krause
KS - 59% Moran, 37% Orman
KY - 58% Paul, 40% Edelen
LA (JUN)- 37% Peterson, 26% Boustany, 24% Guillory
MD - 55% Van Hollen, 43% Rutherford
MO - 52% Blunt, 45% Zweifel
NV - 50% Hutchinson, 46% Reid
NH - 51% Ayotte, 49% Coakley
NY - 81% Schumer, 14% Trump
NC - 49% Cowell, 47% Burr
ND - 100% Hoeven   
OH - 55% Portman, 42% Pillich
OK - 76% Lankford, 18% Rogers
OR - 69% Wyden, 28% Some Dude
PA - 52% Toomey, 48% Sestak
SC - 66% Scott, 34% Some Dude
SD - 58% Thune, 39% Johnson
UT - 53% Lee, 45% Owens
VT - 65% Leahy, 33% Some Dude
WA - 57% Murray, 43% Didier
WI - 52% Burke, 46% Johnson

Romney held no coat tails, and vulnerable Senators in blue states lost re-election. Margins in Illinois and Wisconsin were smaller than some pundits expected, but Kirk and Johnson lost re-election by sizable margins. The surprise of the night was Florida and North Carolina - two seats expected to be held by the incumbents eventually upset by Gwen Graham and Janet Cowell. New Hampshire was close for the Democrats as well - Martha Coakley out-performed Joe Biden despite polling down by 7 or more.

As well, Democrats picked up some notable Republican seats that were picked up in 2014 - taking back NV-4 (Horsford), NH-1 (Ferrini), NY-1 (Spencer), NY-24 (Joy), TX-23 (Gallego), WV-2 (Casey), IA-1 (Vernon), ME-2 (Jackson), CA-3 (Bera), MI-1 (McCarthy), NJ-3 (Belgard). The Republicans did pick up NE-2 (Maxwell) and FL-2 (Kendall).

[Maxwell]

I see the GOP barely held onto the Senate.

I assume the Republicans also kept the House?

Yes, though they lose a good deal of seats they won in 2014.

Also, glad someone noticed the Coakley line.

[Maxwell]

Louisiana Run-Off - A Surprising Challenge



52% Boustany - 48% Peterson

After a narrow win over Elbert Guillory, things looked similar to the 2014 race where Senator Bill Cassidy was favored. However, Karen Peterson ran hard to the center, and Boustany did not get the same level of endorsement as Cassidy, with Guillory refusing to back Boustany. Peterson's ads also proved to be very potent, with Boustany's favorables hitting lows (43-53) while Peterson was fairly popular (49-39). However, Louisiana's Republican nature and it's racial divide proved to be too much for Peterson, and Boustany won a narrow victory, holding on to the GOP majority.

President Romney already faces problems in his transistion with his running mate Scott Walker being investigated for Campaign Finance violation for his gubernatorial campaigns. Senate Minority Leader-elect Chuck Schumer has held to blocking possible Romney violations until VP Walker's campaign finance violation is cleared up. Some Democrats may cross party lines to violate this order, but even Joe Manchin is trashing the Romney administration for pushing forward.

[Maxwell]

The Proposed Romney Administration



President - Mitt Romney
Vice President - Scott Walker
Chief of Staff - Mike Leavitt

Secretary of State - Robert Kimmitt
Secretary of Treasury - Glenn Hubbard
Secretary of Defense - Robert Zoellick
Attorney General - Michael Chertoff
Commerce Secretary - Carly Fiorina
Energy Secretary - James Connaughton
HHS Secretary - Tim Murphy
HUD Secretary - Rick Lazio
Interior Secretary - Bob Beauprez
Labor Secretary - Jim Talent
Agriculture Secretary - Mike Johanns
Transportation Secretary - Marion Blakely
Education Secretary - Tim Pawlenty
EPA Administrator - Susan Dudley

[Maxwell]

LEAK: Romney's first initiative is Corporate Tax Reform

A leak from staffers of Senator Rob Portman's office has revealed that President Romney's first agenda will be corporate tax reform. This is an effective stab at the unpopular leaving President Barack Obama, who spent his last two years flopping at corporate tax reform. Romney is meeting with prominent Democrats and Republicans who caused the bill to flop (Sen. Cruz, Paul, Leahy, McCaskill, Manchin, Merkley) and the incoming Senators to make sure what adjustments they could make. The bill will be a testament to President-elect Romney's management skills.

Walker investigation ended, Schumer demands more answers.

Walker is already becoming a favorite target of Democrats. Even with the Vice President-elect being cleared of charges against him, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is demanding more answers from the administration. He and several Democrats are attempting to put administrative officials on hold for that purpose. A couple of notable Democrats, however, have spoken out against Schumer's holds, calling it a "witch hunt".

[Maxwell]

Senate rejects Beauprez for Interior Secretary

Shortly after President Romney's inauguration (and a slight boost to his approval ratings), the fight for a cabinet secretary ends brutally when Interior Secertary nominee Bob Beauprez is rejected by the Senate. He gained the votes of all the Republicans and none of the Democrats or Independents, but couldn't make it over Senator Bernie Sanders filibuster. Sanders did the fully monty, and inspite of his age, went on for nearly 24 hours protesting Beauprez's environmental views, his previous birtherism, and his support for the pre-approved Keystone Pipeline, which has since produced rather mixed results in terms of environmental impact and job creation. Romney is hunting for a replacement for Mr. Beauprez, and insiders in the administration say it will be someone more moderate on enviormental issues.

Otherwise, President Romney successfully managed to herd several Democratic moderates and vote on his nominations quickly, mostly over the objections of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, showing surprising strength in his newfound position.

First edition of the Portman-Ryan Tax Reform Bill passes the House easily

The newest tax reform bill, which extends certain recession era provisions, cuts the top corporate tax rate to 30%, and clears out deductions and subsidies, passes the house by 288-142, with several Democrats joining the large Republican majority. This isn't the same as passing the senate, where Democratic leadership says it faces a lot more hurdles. Still, a good deal of Democrats are saying they are willing to compromise with the President on this, so the status of the bill is up for grabs, with a lot of votes still undecided (with Cruz, Lee, and Paul standing ground from a conservative perspective).

Economy hits lowest unemployment rate in decades, Romney dedicates troops to ISIS

At 5.8% Unemployment, the economy is stronger than ever. Even Labor force participation, a rate Republicans have been saying is a more accurate descriptor of a weak economy, is starting to pick up again after years of declining. Romney hasn't been office long enough to enact policy, so President Obama has been thanked for this, and he has seen a minor bump in his abysmal approval ratings.

In one of his first acts as President, Mitt Romney has used executive power to put more troops in Iraq to deal with ISIS once and for all. He has said to reporters "we must fight evil wherever it stands, and America will not back from that fight because it never has". In addition, he has sent Vice President Walker on a trade mission to South America, in hopes to inspire new trade agreements. Democrats are questioning the President's constitutionality of his order, calling it "reckless and lawless".

2017 election watch - Ed Gillespie for Governor!

In early February, Gillespie finally declares his candidacy for Virginia Governor, to the excitement of Politico writers everywhere. He instantly clears the field, pushing the former frontrunner Mark Obenshain to run for Senate in 2018 against Tim Kaine. He's viewed as frontrunner for the state in general, leading Attorney General Mark Herring (49-42) and Congressman Don Beyer (51-39) by significant margins. However, early signs aren't very good for Gillespie - his first rally was interrupted by a heckler, who Gillespie responded to by saying "being a Washington insider makes me very credible in Virginia!", a clip that will no doubt be replayed non-stop.

[Maxwell]

2017 Election Watch - Republicans trail hard in New Jersey, Fulop ahead among Democrats



March 2017 - New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary poll (Democrats)
28% Steven Fulop
22% Frank Pallone
16% Stephen Sweeny
8% Barbara Buono
6% Louis Greenwald
5% Others
15% Undecided

March 2017 - New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary Poll (Republicans)
29% Sean Kean
26% Michael Doherty
16% Steve Lonegan
12% Jeff Chiesea
4% Others
13% Undecided

Due to the indictment of Governor Chris Christie, all Democrats hold double digit leads over each Republican (with the exception of Sean Kean and Jeff Chiesa vs. Stephen Sweeney and Barabra Buono, who lead Kean by 4 and 5 points respectively and Chiesa by 6 and 8 points respectively). Chiesa's candidacy has been plagued by his connection with Christie, but his performance has been surprising, and he's gained momentum among establishment elements who view Kean's campaign as rather weak. The biggest fear of the GOP establishment is Doherty fading and Kean and Chiesa battling it out, causing a narrow Lonegan win, which would almost certainly result in a complete wipeout of Republicans in the legislature.

Momentum on the Democratic side belongs to Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who has just pulled ahead of former frontrunner Frank Pallone, who has run a limp campaign filled with gaffes and snooze-worthy moments (he fell asleep during a press appearance). Fulop has some issues as a big city mayor, but he looks very solid to win in a race against any Republican.

Head to Heads
49% Fulop - 38% Kean
52% Fulop - 36% Doherty
55% Fulop - 32% Lonegan
48% Fulop - 35% Chiesa

[Maxwell]

In a surprising turn, The Portman-Ryan Tax Bill passes 62-37

It turns out the President's charm offensive has worked beyond his wildest dreams - the bill not only passes, but passes beyond the filibuster by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The bill put a lot of Senators on the fence on both sides, including conservative members who felt the bill didn't do enough to lower corporate taxes, and liberals who felt the it was a huge boon to big corporations. This bill was certainly a deciding factor between who was going to be working with the new President and who was going to fight him - two Presidential contenders took surprising opposite votes, with California Senator Eric Garcetti voting for the bill after amending the bill to include tech company deductions, and Florida Senator Gwen Graham voting against the bill on a populist stand.

The only thing left for the bill is to clear up differences in the Senate and House bills, which are surprisingly few in number. This is a testament to President Romney's ability as a leader, and he gets a boost in his approvals for his bipartisan efforts.

Ayes: Grassley (R-IA), Hatch (R-UT), Roby (R-AL), Inhofe (R-OK), Roberts (R-KS), Schweikert (R-AZ), Capito (R-WV), Cochran (R-MS), Ernst (R-IA), Hutchinson (R-NV), Alexander (R-TN), Garcetti (D-CA), McConnell (R-KY), Nelson (D-FL), Risch (R-ID), Stutzman (R-IN), Cardin (D-MD), Perdue (R-GA), Enzi (R-WY), Isakson (R-GA), Sessions (R-AL), Rounds (R-SD), Carper (D-DE), Manchin (D-WV), Lankford (R-OK), Wyden (D-OR), Blunt (R-MO), Sasse (R-NE), Gardner (R-CO), Boozman (R-AR), Fischer (R-NE), Labrador (R-ID), Wicker (R-MS), Cornyn (R-TX), Barasso (R-WY), Corker (R-TN), Collins (R-ME), Tillis (R-NC), Moran (R-KS), Graham (R-SC), Cassidy (R-LA), Portman (R-OH), Hoeven (R-ND), McGuire (R-AK), Heller (R-NV), Daines (R-MT), Thune (R-SD), Boustany (R-LA), Toomey (R-PA), Scott (R-SC), Ayotte (R-NH), Cruz (R-TX), Lee (R-UT), Sullivan (R-AK), Cotton (R-AR), Flake (R-AZ), Paul (R-KY), Booker (D-NJ), Coons (D-DE),  Donnelly (D-IN), Bennet (D-CO), Warner (D-VA) - 62

Nays: Peters (D-MI), Leahy (D-VT), Sanders (I-VT), Durbin (D-IL), Blumenthal (D-CT), Markey (D-MA), Hirono (D-HI), Udall (D-NM), Warren (D-MA), Reed (D-RI), Stabenow (D-MI), Murray (D-WA), Schumer (D-NY), Franken (D-MN), Brown (D-OH), Menendez (D-NJ), Burke (D-WI), Whitehouse (D-RI),  Cowell (D-NC), Tester (D-MT), Merkley (D-OR), Casey Jr. (D-PA), Klobuchar (D-MN), Baldwin (D-WI), Gillibrand (D-NY), Graham (D-FL), Heinrich (D-NM), Schatz (D-HI), Murphy (D-CT), Finestine (D-CA), King (I-ME), Shaheen (D-NH), McCaskill (D-MO), Heitkamp (D-ND), Kaine (D-VA), Van Holen (D-MD), Bustos (D-IL) - 37

Didn’t Vote: Cantwell (D-WA) - 1

[Maxwell]

Romney approvals hit record high after successful domestic agenda passed



May 2017 Presidential Approval
61% Approve
26% Disapprove

After getting off on the wrong foot in January with investigations on the Vice President, President Romney has started his Presidency on the right foot by working with Republicans and Democrats to get things through. He's passed a good deal of his domestic agenda - Obamacare adjustments, corporate tax reform, scaling back federal education, and eliminating waste in the Federal Government - with a good deal of Democratic votes. This has shocked many observers who expected a gridlocked Washington. Instead, Democratic Senators have praised the President's ability to work with Democrats and give where giving needs. Foreign affairs are still cloudly, but they are in the backseat to what has been called the most successful domestic agenda since the Reagan administration.

2017 Election Watch - Fulop dominates, Chiesa surprises, McWaters won't leave



New Jersey Democratic Primary
42% Fulop
23% Pallone
15% Sweeney
14% Buono
6% Greenwald
1% Others

New Jersey Republican Primary
35% Chiesa
29% Doherty
23% Kean
11% Lonegan
1% Others

With the Virginia Gubernatorial Primaries coming up, the New Jersey primaries have just closed, and results were expected and unexpected - Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop rode his momentum to a landslide victory over Congressman Frank Pallone. This was a blow to the political establishment in New Jersey, who had backed Pallone and Sweeney. Fulop represented a reform faction of the Democratic Party and him winning by such a large margin was, in his words, a mandate for his agenda.

However, in a shocking twist, Former U.S. Senator Jeff Chiesa climbs to first place over State Senator Michael Doherty and State Assemblyman Sean T. Kean. Kean led in the polls, but was considered unlikely to win due to his limp and lifeless campaign. Doherty was in the strongest position, but would've made winning the Governorship entirely impossible, due to his Tea Party ideology. Chiesa ceased the oppurtunity of a weak field, and ran on being the best able to win the election.

The most interesting question is what does the Democratic establishment in New Jersey do? Fulop has weak relations with them, while Chiesa is a former Christie Attorney General, and Christie, despite his legal fumblings, still has a non-hostile relationship with establishment Democrats. Many pundits believe Chiesa has a chance if he gains their backing over Fulop. Many observers think this election just got interesting.

In Virginia, things are less interesting. Polls show Attorney General Mark Herring as a shoe-in for the nomination over Congressman Don Beyer, who is considered an also-ran and a weak candidate. Similarly, Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie is a shoe-in over his remaining Republican opponent, State Senator Jeff McWaters. McWaters, however, is demanding to stay in the race, calling out Gillespie on his recent history of gaffes. In a press statement, McWaters said "If we nominate him, we are going to lose, and I won't stand by that".

[Maxwell]

Ingraham announces for Arizona Senate



Arizona Senate Primary Poll
41% Flake
35% Ingraham

After much talk, Ingraham has finally left her commentating job at ABC and is running for Senate against Jeff Flake. Flake has earned the ire of conservatives over his record on immigration and Cuba, and Ingraham has been a prominent figure demanding for his blood. Ingraham's first press conference was firey, but relatively light on policy. Flake has a bring it on attitude, but his fundraising numbers have been surprisingly weak, compared to what is expected to be a robust grassroots operation from Ms. Ingraham. This race is already shaping to be nasty, negative, and a perfect opportunity for a Democratic pick-up in a year that looks hard for Democrats to make any gains.

2017 Election Watch: It's Gillespie v. Herring



47% Gillespie - 43% Herring

Unsurprisingly, both Ed Gillespie and Mark Herring won their respective primaries to challenge each-other for the Governorship of Virginia. Herring beat back a spirited challenge from Congressman Don Beyer, who had previously ran for Governor of Virginia a long while back. Meanwhile, Gillespie beat back a surprisingly potent challenge from State Senator Jeff McWaters, who called out Gillespie on his recent history of gaffes. Gillespie's "Washington Insider" quote has run his favorables through the mud, and while Herring still trails, Herring is closing the favor-ability gap and closing the margin gap (from 7 to 4 on average).

Revelation - President Romney effectively repeals Obama immigration order



Approve - 51% (-10)
Disapprove - 42% (+16)

Controversy arose when it became news that President Romney had moved the table back on immigration secretly. Documents between government officials reveal the administration telling immigration department heads to "ignore everything the last President did". Democrats immediately went after the administration, attacking Romney's lawlessness. Romney's approvals took a significant dip, but still remains slightly over 50%, but it bodes well for Democrats in Hispanic heavy areas. For the moment, Romney continues to deny, but it gets harder and harder for him to do so as evidence continues to mount.

[Maxwell]

HOT WATER - Investigation over Booker Bribes!

In September, just moments before 20 New Jersey Democrats move to endorse Republican Jeff Chisea for Governor, Senator Cory Booker, a noted opponent of the pro-reform Steven Fulop, has been charged with bribery, campaign finance violations, and a litany of other crimes involving his time as Newark mayor. Booker, seen as someone who had taken on the New Jersey establishment, had close relationships with Republican donors and Wall Street, and seen his bank account fill up with their donations. Booker continues to deny, but speculation reveals that Senator Booker will probably resign his seat soon, instead of facing congressional ethics committee. If that all wasn't damning enough, low quality video surfaces of Booker taking a bribe from a bugged FBI agent, showing Booker as senator continuing the crimes of Booker the mayor.

Report: Romney ISIS strategy failing

A recent report shows that the Romney administration strategy in ISIS, after being well-received early on by the public as "taking action", has failed in its goal of wiping out ISIS. Casualties have been high, but despite insistent Romney officials claiming the strategy has moved quickly to wipe them out, whats happened instead is an apparent emboldening of ISIS. The first Republican to speak out against the President prior to the release of this report is Senator Rand Paul, who demands the US withdraw from the region, claiming - "we can't get anything done over there, so what's the point". Increasing calls come from odd sources to end conflict and save American lives, and the President's downward spiral continues.

Louisiana Governor Dardenne leaves the Republican Party

In a shocking press conference, Louisiana Governor Jay Dardenne has decided he will leave the Republican Party. He has not specified whether he will join the Democrats, but he has stated that he wants to be "a Governor for all Louisianans to be proud of". Dardenne's surprise victory over Former Senator David Vitter has caused him to be stonewalled by his own Republican legislature, with a record number of vetoes and nasty exchanges between Republican leaders and the Governor. Dardenne's numbers were not effected by this switch, with his approvals among voters remaining fairly high (47-32), if weak among Republicans (42-40). He hasn't stated whether or not he plans to run for re-election in two years, saying "that's a decision for next year, friends".

[Maxwell]

2017 Elections - Democrats Sweep!

New Jersey Gubernatorial Election
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) - 52.1%
Former U.S. Senator Jeff Chisea (R) - 46.3%
Others - 1.6%

Virginia Gubernatorial Election
Attorney General Mark Herring (D) - 49.3%
Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) - 46.5%
Fmr. State Senate Candidate Rob Sarvis (L) - 3.8%
Others - 0.4%

After trailing mildly in early October, Steven Fulop ran hard against the corrupt New Jersey establishment and, in particular, Former U.S. Senator Cory Booker, who recently resigned over his indiscretions with the law.  Combined with a coming home effect of undecided Democrats and rage over corrupt politicians of both sides, Fulop won a decent victory over Former Christie Attorney General Jeff Chisea and picked up a Governorship for the Democrats.

And in spite of the other statewide offices going Republican, Attorney General Mark Herring upset Ed Gillespie and became Virginia's next Governor. Gillespie, after being hyped a shoe-in, ran a gaffe-filled campaign that proved too dumb for Virginia voters. It helped that Herring distanced himself from unpopular Governor Terry McAuliffe, running as a bipartisan reformer. This attack was particularly blunt against Gillespie, whose known career was as a partisan warrior. Still, Pete Snyder narrowly defeated Aneesh Chopra for Lieutenant Governor, and Scott Rigell wiped the floor with some state senator for Attorney General, so the Republican bench is officially replenished in Virginia.

[Maxwell]

President Romney gives 2018 State of the Union



45% Approve
51% Disapprove

After his first year in the Presidency, Mitt Romney has had a rocky road. He's held a successful legislative agenda, pushing forward tax reform, education, and certain rollbacks of the healthcare bill, while at the same time giving in to Democrats on certain pieces of their agenda in the process and making strong allies across the aisle. At the same time, scandals over deportation has rocked his administration, and his foreign policy has caused more harm in the Middle East than there already was. Romney's State of the Union called for bipartisan cooperation on issues such as the energy, immigration, infrastructure, and voting rights. Conservatives criticized the speech as giving into the Democrats on infrastructure, while Democrats lambasted the President's previous behavior on immigration as a lack of trust.

Fulop appoints Dawn Zimmer to U.S. Senate seat, no Special Election

In his first major act since becoming Governor of New Jersey, Governor Steven Fulop has appointed Hoboken Mayor Dawn Zimmer to the U.S. Senate seat. Fulop, elected in spite of objections from the establishment New Jersey Democratic Party, has gone out of his way to push for his reform agenda, and Zimmer was far closer to the reform part of the party than the regular powers that be. Zimmer, no doubt, will face heavy opposition in 2020 over her appointment in the Democratic primary but also from Republicans who see a bloodly Democratic Primary as an opportunity.

V.P. Walker to fly to South America to talk trade

Most reports see Walker, who began the administration under investigation, as being completely iced from the West Wing. Despite that, or maybe because of that perception, Vice President Walker is being sent to South America to discuss the possibility of a new trade agreement with the region. After the announcement, video was leaked of a speech Walker gave to donors, condemning the Democratic Senate for stonewalling the President on trade, saying they "are taking food out of the mouths of children, and price gouging American families", a remark not likely to be taken well in South America.

[Maxwell]

I am guessing they just cut specific Obamacare taxes (device tax, income tax surtax) and raised the work week to 35-40 hours and what constitutions a mature, non-start up company to 100 employees? Otherwise, ignoring or abolishing the individual mandate, the subsidies or the welfare expansion would be tantamount to canceling Obamacare.

Yes, you're correct. Romney, while not explicitly stating it, has made it clear that he would not sign anything that cancels Obamcare overall. He's very sneaky like that.

[Maxwell]

Election 2018 Watch: McCaul faces Gohmert in Run-Off, Castro wins Dem Primary unopposed



Texas Senate Republican Primary
Congressman Louie Gohmert - 32%
Congressman Mike McCaul - 29%
Former State Rep. Dan Branch - 22%
Activist Debra Medina - 13%
Others - 3%

48% McCaul - 40% Castro
46% Castro - 45% Gohmert

McCaul's perceived non-firestarter image among the Texas Republican Party meant he started the primary at a low point, but after Gohmert's confusing campaign and idiotic messaging became more noted, his numbers started to drop, and when it became clear that the moderate in the race, Dan Branch, didn't have what it took to win, McCaul's well-oiled and self-financed campaign came through and scored a second place showing and a spot on the run-off. The Texas and National Republican establishment, including Governor Greg Abbott and President Mitt Romney, are in the tank for McCaul, noting his relative ease of beating San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, while most polling shows Castro ahead of the disastrous Louie Gohmert.

Franken - Very serious about potential Presidential bid



48% Romney - 42% Garcetti
47% Romney - 40% Graham
49% Romney - 37% Franken

2020 season is beginning to heat up, with aging Senator Al Franken the first to address Presidential speculation with anything but a no. He has already said he plans to retire at the end of his second term, but most expect him to keep his options open. Franken would be considered the progressive wing of the parties choice, though many progressives are also considering California Senator Eric Garcetti, who, besides his vote for corporate tax reform, has mostly compiled a progressive record. Garcetti and Florida Senator Gwen Graham, a moderate who voted against tax reform, would be considered Romney's strongest challengers, but both trail the incumbent President at this point in time, with Franken trailing even harder.

President Romney to push for major voting reforms

In a new press conference, Romney announced, along with bill co-sponsors Joni Ernst and Joe Manchin, that he would be using his bully pulpit to push congress in favor of a new package of voting reforms. At this point in time, the bill includes voting reforms Democrats favor, such as national early voting minimums and making voting day a national holiday, in exchange for battling voter fraud, including a controversial provision requiring National ID. Senate Minority Whip Elizabeth Warren made a statement on the bill, saying that if the Voter ID Portion remains in the House version, the bill will be "dead on arrival".

[Maxwell]

Great timeline.

But one thing, either of the Castro brothers would never win a statewide election in Texas, especially during a midterm year. Even with Gohmert as the GOP. There's just too many "yellow-dog" Republicans there (literally people who would vote for a yellow dog before they would vote for a Democrat, the term was coined the other way around in the Solid South)

Yes, but I'm making two assumptions - 1. the growing hispanic population would finally turn out for Castro and 2. Gohmert is such a goober that he's worse than a yellow dog.

[Maxwell]

2018 Election Watch Pt.1 - McCaul defeats Gohmert



Texas Republican Run-Off
51.2% Congressman Michael McCaul
48.8% Congressman Louie Gohmert

Conservatives lose a rising star and Establishment Republicans gain a work horse and a safer hold with McCaul's defeat of Gohmert. McCaul went highly negative in the final stretch, barraging Gohmert with ads, and most polls showed Gohmert down double digits. However, Gohmert had something McCaul didn't - grassroots support. This caused the race to be called very late in the night. McCaul is highly favored against Julian Castro, gaining a primary bump (52-40). Nevertheless, Castro has proved himself to be an impressive fundraiser, more able to compete with self-funder McCaul than many expected.

2018 Election Watch Pt. 2 - Arkansas race tightens after budget scuffles



48% Hutchinson - 44% Hays

In a race many expected to be a walk for Republicans, Democratic Primary winner Patrick Henry Hays gets a major boost in the polls after continual budget scuffles between Governor Asa Hutchinson and his Republican legislature cause problems for schools and regular government operations. Hutchinson, after campaigning on competent government, has run into major problems working with the legislature, often butting heads with major Republican leaders who are more ideological. Hays, the benefactor of all this, has campaigned like all successful southern Democrats nowadays have - on guns, public education, and the failure of a major Republican. This will be a surprising one to watch.

Figures - National Revenues under expectation, Unemployment rising

After Budget Director Judd Gregg originally made it clear that corporate tax reform would have a net positive effect on the budget, it turns out that national revenues are under expectation by a significant amount. This adds to a return of an unemployment problem starting in December of 2017, that has only grown since May has started. Most economists don't think that the tax reform has anything to do with a return of higher unemployment rates, but the change has dealt a good deal of damage to confidence people have in the Romney administration. Judd Gregg has since resigned from office.

Sensing his Presidential ambitions slipping away if he doesn't do something quick, Senator Eric Garcetti (D-CA), the most noted progressive to support Romney's tax reform, has backed away from his support, saying in a recent press appearance "it was a lethal mistake made under false pretenses and I am deeply sorry". Garcetti also noted his strong opposition to the Ernst-Manchin Voting Rights package, calling it - "a slap in the face to minorities across this great nation".

Garcetti's most noted challenger, Senator Al Franken (D-MN), took some well-deserved swipes at the Democratic frontrunner, calling it "an obvious error by a man too willing to believe, rookie mistake!". Franken was noted for his staunch opposition to the bill in the congress, becoming the all-too-well-known member of the "No Caucus", democrats who filibuster the houses bills and slows down the process for President Romney. Franken was praised for his insight.

Conservatives took this opportunity to chastise the President on spending. Potential challenger, Senator Raul Labrador of Idaho, took a swipe at the President in a speech, demanding cuts to spending and saying the ever famous Republican line - "Washington doesn't have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem". Labrador's views, which trend conservative and libertarian, allowed him to throw out red meat to the conservative voters while at the same time amping up his policy credentials, giving him a good chance should Romney not run again.

Romney vetoes bipartisan anti-spying bill

In another sign of the President's inability to communicate with voters, he has vetoed the major anti-spying bill, leaving before he could give an explanation. Stranger still, he had planned a press conference, but didn't show up. When reached for a statement, Vice President Walker, seething from being iced from the administration, said "well he should've at least showed up!". That clip is being played over and over again, causing drama for the administration, and building up votes in the Senate and House for an override.

[Maxwell]

What happened to Cruz in Texas anyway?

Cruz ran for President in 2016, lost embarrassingly, and has faded into obscurity. Probably going to end up the head of some think tank, or as a controversial appointee for Supreme Court.

[Maxwell]

So he resigned from the Senate or chose not to go for reelection?

He's not running for re-election.

[Maxwell]

Hot Hot Summer - Re-Districting, Voting Issues, West Virginia, Pot

Adding to the record temperatures in the summer of 2018 were issues involving re-districting and voting rights. Courts ruled Ohio and Michigan re-districting ruled to be unconstitutional, and an independent commission will be brought in to re-draw the state for 2022 elections. This news brings doom to the congressmen in a lot of at risk Republican districts in both states. If a wave wasn't already coming, this was a big sign of things to come.

In Congress, it looks like President Mitt Romney picked the wrong fight when it came to The Voting Reforms Act. From a 48-12 rating to a 32-59 rating, Senator Al Franken and Jeff Merkley moved the Democratic caucus significantly against the one provision that held Republicans on: Voter ID. The debate over the bill became vitrolic when protesters came to the White House front lawn with "Romney = Hitler" signs. The bill was defeated 52-47, with Joe Manchin voting for his bill, and Rand Paul, Dean Heller, Cory Gardner, and Chuck Grassley voting against it, with Orin Hatch not voting.

Afterward, news got bad for potential Democratic control of the Senate when Joe Manchin promptly resigned his seat from the Senate when the bill failed, calling it "An end to bipartisanship as we know it". In his place, the West Virginia Democratic Party has put Former Senator Carte Goodwin up as the nominee, who will certainly end up as an underdog to Former Olympic Gymnast Mary Lou Retton, but appears, at least potentially, to be competitive.

State referendums across the country are legalizing pot, even in states not typically known for pot legalization like Arizona, Kansas, Idaho, Montana, and Missouri. And for once, politicians are following the popularity of that policy. State Rep. Lydia Hernandez (D-AZ) is running as a supreme underdog to Governor Doug Ducey, has hitched her wagon to the popularity of pot legalization, as has Boise Mayor David Bieter (D-ID) and Former State Senator Paul Davis (D-KS). Even Republicans in previously legalized pot states have flipped. Former State Senator Mike Kopp (R-CO), a candidate for Governor, has flipped his position on pot and has gone to the left of his Democratic opponent.

[Maxwell]

Dem Wave Building, Ingraham defeats Flake, Goodwin closes the gap

 

Arizona Senate Poll - 51% Synema (D), 43% Ingraham (R)
Utah Senate Poll- 46% Owens (D), 44% Love (R)
West Virginia Senate Poll - 48% Retton (R), 45% Goodwin (D)
Idaho Governor Poll - 44% Wasden (R), 42% Bieter (D)
Arizona Governor Poll - 47% Ducey (R), 40% Hernandez (D)

Despite Democrats on the verge of losing two seats (Indiana and Missouri), it looks more and more like a Democratic wave that will wipe out Republicans in formerly stronghold districts and Governorships in strongly Republican states. The most notable races - a Tea Party victory in Arizona happens when talk radio host Laura Ingraham narrowly defeats Jeff Flake (44-43). Senator Flake was narrowly favored against Synema (48-45), but Ingraham causes this seat to go into incredibly hostile territory for Republicans. Some conservatives are even worried that Synema's victory will be so large that she carries with her State Rep. Lydia Hernandez, who is running against unpopular Governor Doug Ducey.

In Utah, to the disbelief of many, Doug Owens, son of Former Congressman Wayne Owens, has pulled ahead in public polls against rising star Congresswoman Mia Love. Love below an early advantage by overspending early, and losing the confidence of many Republican moderates when she stood against the President on the Voting Reforms Act and said "President Romney will get a big kick in the rear from us conservatives!". Some reports say that Romney operatives have secretly cut off Mia Love and backed Owens in subtle ways, and Owens, who knows Romney is still very popular in the state, has praised the President as a moderate consensus builder, and "will work constructively with Republicans to get through Utah's interests".

Finally, Former Senator Carte Goodwin is closing the gap against Former Olympian Mary Lou Retton. Goodwin has touted his West Virginia heritage, his business savy, and his youth, being able to campaign all across the state in nearly every town. Retton, meanwhile, has almost taken the race for granted, rarely appearing at forums, debates, and even at campaign events. Her reasoning? her lack of knowledge of the issues! When asked a reason to vote for Mrs. Retton, Governor Morrissey gave a mumbling non-answer about the American dream. The most potent attack against Goodwin is his record - being the most liberal Senator during his time is certainly a hampering on his campaign, but besides that, the race has been tightening from the start, and may be an unexpected Democratic hold.

Secretary of Treasury Carly Fiorina resigns, more economic troubles

In October, shocking news came about when Treasury Secretary Carly Fiorina announced her resignation from the White House. Her work has been as a cheerleader for the Romney fiscal agenda, with many pundits calling her one of the most political Treasury Secretaries in history. Whoever is confirmed in her place may face a tough hearing. Fiorina is considered a future Presidential candidate, especially if President Romney retires.

Unemployment has reached 7%, as economic troubles continue to burden the American people. The deficit is expected to rise, largely due to the economic distress, but certainly not helped by the Romney tax reform, which brought in a net negative of revenue, instead of the revenue neutrality promised by Senator Portman and Secretary Fiorina. Democrats have lambasted the President's performance on this front, and have campaign hard on the economic improvement of the Obama administration. Looks like President Obama will be getting the last laugh after all.

George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter die on the same day



George H.W. Bush: June 12th, 1924 - October 28th, 2018 (94 Years Old)
Jimmy Cater: October 1st, 1924 - October 28th, 2018 (94 Years Old)

[Maxwell]

2018 - A Shellacking

Competitive Senate Races

Arizona
In what many consider a landmark defeat, Talk Radio Host Laura Ingraham defeats Senator Jeff Flake by over 5000 votes (44-43, with a third anti-immigrant perennial candidate taking the rest). Flake, enraged, refuses to endorse Ingraham, and instead, praises Congresswoman Krysten Sienma as a "bipartisan consensus-maker in Washington", in effect, endorsing her. Sinema's lead in the polls ends up being slightly over-estimated (partially due to her agnosticism), but nevertheless, she is elected in a historic victory.

Congresswoman Krysten Sienma (D) - 53%
Talk Radio Host Laura Ingraham (R) - 43%

D Pick-up!

Florida
In one potential Republican pick-up, Republicans nominate Adam Putnam to face aging Senator Bill Nelson. Nelson proves his frality over the campaign, and trails definitively against Putnam most of the campaign. However, Putnam calls Democratic voters "a bunch of ignorant racists who can't understand what's even on their ballot" two days before election day, and Nelson pulls ahead, in a testament to how big the wave was Putnam lead in the last poll 51-46.

Senator Bill Nelson (D) - 49%
Ag. Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) - 48%

Indiana
In the one bright spot for Republicans in the Senate, Senator Joe Donnelly's unpopularity proved too much to overcome when Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard defeated two Tea Party challengers in a primary. Ballard held a strong lead throughout the campaign, and the margin of the race was shocking, but Ballard clearly defeated accidental Senator Donnelly.

Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard (R) - 52%
Senator Joe Donnelly (D) - 46%

R Pick-Up!

Missouri
In what most expected to be the second bright spot of the night for Republicans, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, a woman of considerable luck, saw her luck run out against Congresswoman Ann Wagner. Wagner, while considered to be too conservative for the state as a whole, proved to be a strong campaigner, and McCaskill, try as she might, couldn't compete. However, with most polls deadlocked, 2018 turned out to save McCaskill's bacon, as she won re-election narrowly.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) - 50%
Congresswoman Ann Wagner (R) - 48%

North Dakota
Senator Heidi Heitkamp was very popular in North Dakota (56-32 Approval Rating), but Republicans saw an opportunity when she trailed Congressman Kevin Cramer in opening polls. Cramer, however, proved to be a bumbling nominee, uninspiring to Conservatives, and too conservative for the party moderates. This was a secret Democrat that President Romney backed behind closed doors, refusing to fly to North Dakota to campaign for Cramer. Heitkamp beat Cramer back by a surprising margin.

Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) - 53%
Congressman Kevin Cramer (R) - 45%

Nevada
Senator Dean Heller racked up a moderate record along with his fellow Nevada Senator Mark Hutchison, and Heller was ranked "the most centrist Senator in the country" in 2017. Heller, however, faced a stellar challenge from Former Attorney General Catherine Mastos, who charged Heller was a "solider in the Romney army". Despite his record, Heller couldn't shake the label, and lost against Mastos.

Former Attorney General Catherine Mastos (D) - 49%
Senator Dean Heller (R) - 45%

D Pick-Up!

Pennsylvania
While Congressional races went decisively Democrat this year, the Pennsylvania Senate race almost defied the year. Lieutenant Governor Michael Stack faced off against Congressman Charlie Dent in an extremely nasty and negative Senate race. The retiring Senator Bob Casey had little faith in Stack, but saw Dent as a continuation of the Republican Senate, and campaigned strongly for Mr. Stack. Leads changed throughout the campaign, but the 2014 banner year managed to carry Stack to a victory. Dent has almost positively made sure he will run again in 2024.

Lt. Governor Michael Stack (D) - 51%
Congressman Charlie Dent (R) - 49%

Texas
The contentious primary non-withstanding, Mike McCaul came out of the primary with strong fundraising, strong backing from Governor Abbott and President Romney, and a seemingly insurmountable lead in the polls. In race that nobody had on their radars, San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro began slowly but surely chipping away at McCaul's lead. McCaul was not considered a strong campaigner, with most Texans finding him cold and distant, and while Castro wasn't as strong with the yellow dog Republicans, he found a voice with Republican moderates who saw McCaul's stance on immigration as too extreme, and with hispanics, who turned out in record numbers to vote for the first hispanic Senator of Texas. In the biggest upset of the night, McCaul was defeated by a little over 1000 votes.

Former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D) - 49.5364%
Congressman Mike McCaul (R) - 49.5363%

D Pick-Up!

Utah
With his thunder slightly stolen, Doug Owens nevertheless shocked most observers with his campaign, running as strong or even stronger against Congresswoman Mia Love as he did against Senator Mike Lee in 2016. Mia Love, considered a rising star in the Republican Party, made plenty of fundamental errors throughout the campaign, while Owens went to nearly every little town in Utah and talked to voters about his independence. Owens was another Democrat secretly supported by President Mitt Romney, who cut off Love from public appearances. Owens, in return, said he would've voted for the Voting Reforms Act, and would work with Republicans to get things done for Utahans. The margin of which Owens won by was probably the most shocking thing.

Former Senate Candidate Doug Owens (D) - 53%
Congresswoman Mia Love (R) - 46%

D Pick Up!

West Virginia
With the surprise resignation of Senator Joe Manchin, the seat was almost certainly thrown to the Republicans. Or so we thought. Olympian Mary Lou Retton was set to be the Republican nominee, and Democrats successfully sought out Former Senator Carte Goodwin as a sacrifical lamb. Goodwin, however, proved to be a successful nominee, touting his fair trade credentials, support for blue collar workers, and most important of all, his love for Former Senator Robert Byrd. Retton, however, proved to be a disaster, making few public appearances, and the few she made proved how little she knew about the issues. Goodwin pulled an upset and actually held the seat for the Democrats.

Former Senator Carte Goodwin (D) - 51%
Former Olympian Mary Lou Retton (R) - 49%

All Senate Races
AZ - 53% Sienma, 43% Ingraham
CA - 58% Chiang, 42% Nunes
CT - 61% Murphy, 38% Debicella
DE - 71% Carper, 28% Some Dude
FL - 49% Nelson, 48% Putnam
HI - 78% Hirono, 19% Some Dude
IN - 52% Ballard, 46% Donnelly
MA - 56% Warren, 41% Polito
MD - 62% Cardin, 36% Some Dude
ME - 55% King, 26% Poliquin, 14% Some Dude (D)
MN - 68% Klobuchar, 29% Abeler
MO - 50% McCaskill, 48% Wagner
MS - 58% Wicker, 41% Some Dude
MT - 55% Tester, 39% Zinke
ND - 53% Heitkamp, 45% Cramer
NE - 71% Fischer, 26% Some Dude
NJ - 60% Murphy, 36% Lonegan
NM - 66% Heinrich, 28% Some Dude
NV - 48% Masto, 46% Heller
NY - 68% Gillibrand, 26% some Dude
PA - 51% Stack, 49% Dent
RI - 68% Whitehouse, 26% Some Dude
TN - 72% Haslam, 27% Some Dude
TX - 50% Castro, 50% McCaul
UT - 53% Owens, 46% Love
VA - 56% Kaine, 42% Forbes
VT - 100% Sanders   
WA - 64% Cantwell, 32% Some dude
WI - 55% Baldwin, 43% Duffy
WV- 51% Goodwin, 49% Retton
WY - 100% Barasso   

[Maxwell]

Another Adams/Jefferson incident, it seems.

Indeed! Thanks for noticing.

Also, if you think the Senate results are brutal, wait for the Governors and Congressional results (rubs hands together).