Why Christie at 2%? Why Carson at a whopping 11% (which is more than Iowa, his obvious natural home)?
Well, first of all, I can edit my post between now and then, so I will look at the polls and if they don't agree with me I might, although there is also the margin for error.
Second, I always expect the unexpected and realize that any guess I make is going to be off. I don't have a good track record so far of guessing correctly, but giving the fluidity of this election it is hard to guess accurately. The polls were off vis a vis Trump in Iowa. I guessed Trump and Sanders would win in Iowa, and I was certaintly close about Sanders potential win.
Third, as for your two questions. I could be right about Christie, he is sinking fast. I could be wrong about Carson, but he would be the most likely to beat expectations; on the other hand he could continue to sink and then I would be way off. Perhaps some of Santorum's support and Huckabee's support could go to him. There is also the uncertainty of undecideds and independents. Maybe crazy, but this is a crazy year.
I mean it is pretty unpredictable - but I will point out that Santorum and Huckabee were both at 1% or 0% in New Hampshire.