Guess NH results (%) for both sides. (user search)
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  Guess NH results (%) for both sides. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Guess NH results (%) for both sides.  (Read 2489 times)
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« on: February 03, 2016, 11:39:21 AM »

Democratic Side:
54% Sanders
46% Hillary

Closer than the polls or the pundits predicted.

And I will not predict the GOP side until we get some polling.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2016, 12:23:31 PM »

Why Christie at 2%? Why Carson at a whopping 11% (which is more than Iowa, his obvious natural home)?
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2016, 01:53:05 PM »

Why Christie at 2%? Why Carson at a whopping 11% (which is more than Iowa, his obvious natural home)?
Well, first of all, I can edit my post between now and then, so I will look at the polls and if they don't agree with me I might, although there is also the margin for error.
Second, I always expect the unexpected and realize that any guess I make is going to be off. I don't have a good track record so far of guessing correctly, but giving the fluidity of this election it is hard to guess accurately. The polls were off vis a vis Trump in Iowa. I guessed Trump and Sanders would win in Iowa, and I was certaintly close about Sanders potential win.

Third, as for your two questions. I could be right about Christie, he is sinking fast. I could be wrong about Carson, but he would be the most likely to beat expectations; on the other hand he could continue to sink and then I would be way off. Perhaps some of Santorum's support and Huckabee's support could go to him. There is also the uncertainty of undecideds and independents. Maybe crazy, but this is a crazy year.

I mean it is pretty unpredictable - but I will point out that Santorum and Huckabee were both at 1% or 0% in New Hampshire.
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