If you look at every other probability-based model (NYT Upshot, Sam Wang, Daily Kos), none of them have swung as wildly as Silver's. They have mostly stayed within a 70-90% Clinton range, which makes sense because the fundamentals of the race haven't really changed that much. But a good model that doesn't swing wildly from day to day doesn't bring in the page views. Nate just wants clicks. He's not interested in accurately forecasting anything.
Silver's old model looked fairly stable even as Obama was only leading by like 2-4 points.
