I start with he assumption that any partisan Governor has an influence upon other statewide races. If that governor is popular, then he can aid the partisan election of another Candidate. If the Governor is unpopular he is a drag upon any such effort.
A state is in white if it has no Governor or an independent Governor or if its Governor has been defeated in a re-election bid, has not run for re-election, or has chosen not to run for re-election, then the next governor will have the effect. Thus I had North Carolina in white until the latest map because unpopular Governor Bev Perdue was going to have no effect upon subsequent statewide elections in North Carolina. That includes subsequent elections of US Senators in 2014 and 2016 and the Presidency in 2016. Now that there is a Republican Governor I show an effect. I also show the state whited out if the recent Governor has died or resigned or the Governor has been removed through impeachment or recall until polls appear for the current governor.
If the margin is 0%, then the state is in white. Otherwise, States are colored red or orange if the incumbent Governor is a Democrat and one has post-election polls -- red if the Governor has stronger approval than disapproval (example -- New York) and orange (example -- Illinois) if the Governor has stronger disapproval than approval... or blue or green if the Governor is a Republican, ed if the Governor has stronger approval than disapproval (example -- Virginia) and orange (example -- Florida) if the Governor has stronger disapproval than approval.
The rationale? Consider Florida, in which the current Republican Governor is wildly unpopular. Republican nominees for any high office are unlikely to share a stage with current Governor Rick Scott. Such could have been the difference between President Obama winning and losing Florida in 2012. Contrast Virginia, where incumbent Governor Bob McDonnell might appear on a podium with a Republican nominee for the Senate in 2014 or for the Presidency in 2016 and might be VP material.
Is it that important? Maybe not. Kentucky, Missouri, and West Virginia have popular Democratic Governors, and Barack Obama lost all three states decisively in 2012. Barack Obama has shown himself a bad match (at least culturally) for the heavily-rural states with much of their populations in the Appalachians and Ozarks. The next Presidential nominee will NOT be Barack Obama, and he (or she) will not get McGovern-like results in Kentucky or West Virginia.
I am not satisfied that the small margins for governors in Hawaii (Abercrombie is unusually unpopular for a Democrat in Hawaii) or North Carolina (political honeymoon) deserve to be treated as if they were 52-48 margins. I am tempted to lighten the color of those two states for Governors having small margins with total approval under 50%.
Thanks, but I doubt that Scott's unpopularity had much to do with Obama carrying Florida. I don't really think that it would have that much effect because it was a presidential campaign. If it were a statewide election, however, then something like that might happen.
