VT-GOV: Phil Scott in

[Oldiesfreak1854]

YES!!!  Endorsed!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Obviously - strongest possible Republican GE candidate.

What if Brock and/or Milne run?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Yeah, really.  Apparently they never learned anything from eight years of Jim Douglas.  The way a state votes for president is not always an indicator of how it'll go in statewide contests.  Shumlin's job approval isn't all that great, and he barely won in 2014, even as the polls showed him cruising to reelection.  Plus, he's not running this time, so that opens it up even more.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Not surprising considering they also have IA listed as a Lean D state and NV as Likely D in 2016.

Agreed on IA.

As for NV - if Trump/Cruz/Carson is going to be the GOP Nominee, Nevada probably doesn't go for them because of its large hispanic population. And yeah, I think it's more likely than not that one of them will receive the nomination. So I can see where the rationale comes from there. But as there is still plenty of time for all three to falter, I think it's best to continue predicting based on a Clinton vs. Generic R scenario, in which NV is Toss-Up/Tilt D.

I wouldn't rate Nevada as even Lean D; they have a lot of libertarians and Mormons who could easily offset the Hispanic vote.  That's why I thought it was stupid when pundits were writing off Mitt Romney's chances there (especially because he's a Mormon himself).  Even if Obama did ultimately get the state, it was far from a given.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Phil Scott is probably the only Republican in the country that hopes Bernie ISN'T the Democratic nominee.

I doubt Scott wins 2016, but he'll have a very good chance in 2018. Especially if he runs a respectable margin in 2016.

He can win even in 2016.. Vermpnt voters are flexible and quite adept at splitting their vote. After all - he rather easily won Lt. Governor election in 2012 despite big Obama win in the state, and Democrats will have rather late (August) and, possibly, divisive, primary in 2016..

But Vermont has not elected a non-incumbent Republican governor in a presidential year since 1976, when it hadn't fully trended Democratic yet. Richard Snelling and Jim Douglas were elected in midterm years. I think it will be difficult for any Republican to take the governorship in a presidential year-even an established winner like Scott.

We will see soon. Of course - it would be easier for him in midterm year, but, IMHO - quite possible in 2016 too...

Two words: ticket splitting.