Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Zanas]

Can the OP add in the election's date, as is standard procedure round here ? It's May 5th, right ?

[Zanas]

Those aren't very good numbers in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview. In a riding the NDP currently holds, you'd expect landslide numbers, not 50%.

Well, I don't know, but to me 50% with a 25 pt lead in FPTP is at least kinda landslide numbers.

[Zanas]

Line of the night from Notley: "That's not a good way to speak to a donor Jim"

Context ?

[Zanas]

New Forum poll:

NDP: 38 (+10)
WRP: 25 (-5)
PC: 20 (-7)
ALP: 7 (-5)
AP: 6 (+4)
Oth: 5  (+3)

NDP are now in the lead in Calgary too...

I feel it's only adequate to say : DOMINATING!

To answer the above question, even if I'm not particularly well versed in Canadian politics, I feel like this election is bound to have a pretty negligible effect on federal politics and the federal election, whatever its result. Canadian posters can correct if I'm mistaken in this feeling.

[Zanas]

Don't need to listen to my analysis. Just go to Twitter. A common theme of many AB NDP supporters therein is that the AB NDP "has shot themselves in the foot".

Just watch the political fallout over the next 9 days. And, at the end of the day, from an analytical perspective, don't let me say I told you so. Open your eyes to realpolitik man.

Sorry bloke, but if you think that whatever goes on on Twitter will have any meaningful effect whatsoever on the real outcome of the real election, you're gonna have a bad time.

[Zanas]

Who the hell are all these Federal Green/Provincial Wildrose voters?!

Green must be their favourite colour. That or they hate all the established parties.

That struck me as well, but probably just a very small sub-sample.

Oh and at this point, given what the recent history of provincial polling has provided us with, I'll say that the PC will be reelected.

[Zanas]

Though I followed this here and it's been quite a fun ride, I can't pretend I'm an expert in Canadian or Albertan politics and elections, so I'll make a prediction just for the sheer fun of it.

Vote share :

NDP 39.5 %
WR 28 %
PC 23 %
Lib 4.5 %
AP 3 %
Other 2 %

Seats :

NDP 42
WR 19
PC 23
Lib 2
AP 1

I think NDP falls just short of a majority because, in spite of polls and everything, this is still Alberta. I think WR makes the difference in the PV, but poorly distributed enough to fall short of forming official opposition, though this should be a horse race with the PC. Both Lib and AP survive, despite what we've just seen in PEI, just because it would be more fun that way !

[Zanas]

For now it seems we'll get 5 parties in, Libs and AP both clinging on to one seat. I switched WR and PC in vote efficiency in my prediction.

[Zanas]

Dat PC vote inefficiency tho... Ô_o"

It seems a lot of people ended up casting a Conservative vote in places where it ultimately didn't matter.

NDP vote share should stabilise just below 40%. I'll be a Tender and say I told you so.

[Zanas]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

I'm not sure they're that much disappointed. They end up clearly above of the PC, and it seems that Alberta doesn't have room for more than 2 main parties, at least not for a long time. If they get their act together and act credibly in the official opposition, they should end up grabbing a lot of the Tory vote come next election and either strenghten official opposition status and wipe the Tories out or even win government if the NDP f[inks] up.