Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)

[Zanas]

Is everyone here of the opinion that Trump is almost certainly going to win the New Hampshire primary? Does anyone here believe that another candidate has a reasonable chance to beat him tonight?

Almost everyone seems to be of the perception that this is essentially a fight for second place in New Hampshire tonight.

Frankly, from what we've seen in Iowa, I think it's possible that a lot of people turn out eventually to just stop Trump. Now what would be their choice ? I'd say Kasich, because I'd guess those people would be Independents just disgusted by the very thought of Donald Trump, so I'd say Kasich has a 25% chance of winning, Rubio a 5% chance, and Trump's got the rest.

[Zanas]

I saw on CNN that 56% of GOP primary voters were college graduates. I think that doesn't bode very well for Trump, does it ?

[Zanas]

According to MSNBC: 2/3 of Republicans want to ban Muslims from entering US.

I'm pretty sure that for the average GOP voter these days, "Muslim" is literally a synonym of "terrorist", so of course they would answer that.

[Zanas]

Decision Desk toplines:

Trump 35.84%
Cruz 15.12%
Kasich 14.94%
Rubio 10.72%
Bush 9.62%

Clinton 36.52%
Sanders 61.98%

Wow.

This only tells us what we already knew : Trump and Sanders win this things. Ranks 2 to 5 in the GOP race are still open.

[Zanas]

Will there be any actual returns before 8?

I would guess so : small towns should be counted in 20-30 mins.

[Zanas]

So, can we trust the results there (http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/) or not ?

[Zanas]

Who was allowed to vote this morning at midnight?

People in Dixville Notch, Hart's Location, and Millsfield.

It is a thing since 1960. You must be new.

[Zanas]

Did anyone expect late-breakers to be, apparently, going to Trump this hard?

We have no evidence of that as of yet. We have lilliputian reports. Wait and see.

[Zanas]

It's actually neck-and-neck between Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Christie for 3rd in both the DD reports and the AP/CNN ones !

[Zanas]

In AP reports, Richard Witz is beating Carson and Fiorina for 7th place.

[Zanas]

Kasich nearly ties Trump in Merrimack county, but in Hillsborough county he's getting TRUMPED as of now.

[Zanas]

Trump has just Concord New Hampshire !

[Zanas]

Any chance Christie drops out tonight?

My prediction is yes. Coming in 4th in the establishment lane (behind Kasich, Jeb!, and Rubio) in a state he focused on is a loss as big as Christie himself.

He's not that far behind Bush and Rubio however, and since Kasich is going nowhere nationally, I don't see why Christie should be dropping out after tonight.

[Zanas]

Guys, remember that ?

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That was the closest poll to where the results are standing now, that's what that was. ARG. Yes.

[Zanas]

Guys, remember that ?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That was the closest poll to where the results are standing now, that's what that was. ARG. Yes.

First Overtime Politics is the most accurate at predicting Iowa, and now ARG predicts NH?

Gravis will nail the results in SC.

The thing is, I actually believe that.

Gravis actually did quite well in NH as well, at least with Kasich's score. Monmouth was pretty good too...

[Zanas]

In all honesty, despite the small margins, it does seem that the GOP order has somewhat settled at:

1. Trump
2. Kasich
3. Bush
4. Cruz
5. Rubio
6. Christie
7. Fiorina
8. Carson

Each spread is by a few hundred votes or more. I doubt it will change.

Yeah except for Bush and Cruz who are really close and could switch.

[Zanas]

Geez CNN is getting on my nerves trying to sell us a "close battle for 2nd place !!!!11!!1" No there isn't one ! Kasich is 2nd, period.

[Zanas]

Trump looks drunk.

It's so different from Sanders' speech just earlier. Sanders was making a political manifesto speech. Trump sounds like he's speaking to kindergarten kids...

[Zanas]

French : done.

[Zanas]

Trump is basically saying "We are gonna solve everything, it will be so great. I'm the best person ever created by god." How is that a political agenda ? I never really listened to him up until now, but it's really appalling.

[Zanas]

Kasich looks like a decent human being, promoting hugs and all. I didn't think there were any left in the GOP. Not seeing him going anywhere from now on, but he seems decent enough.