Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Orion0]

Read it. Neat stuff.

I'll go negative here and predict:

Calgary Centre: Liberal (to go Tory again in 2015)
Durham: Conservative
Victoria: NDP

Gonna have to disagree with the prediction, Crockett is not ideal, but Greens and libs both have (relatively) high support here, and any strategic ABC voting doesn't seem to be coalescing around one candidate. I'll be watching green support, as the higher it is more likely Crockett wins. If it does flip, I tend to agree with mileslunn & dc and see it going back to con in 15, temporary blip style.

[Orion0]

Then again, who knows if the added attention to Calgary Centre actually now being winnable or at least competitive for a non-Conservative might carry on into the next general election...

You might think, but Calgary is a different political beast than Edmonton where opposition parties at least have a decent showing. I used to believe that like Edmonton, Calgary was ripe for non-cpc parties. Then I moved to Calgary, and the last 4 years have proven (to me at least) that Calgary is solidly blue, unless the libs start saying yes to nexen, northern gateway, etc etc as a group (not just individual candidates piecemeal support for some aspects) and with a general election on the line in 2015 I doubt that Calgary would bite the hand that feeds, so to speak.

[Orion0]

Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

Perhaps not, but there is a huge push on the ground for both Turner and Locke = a split. And you more than anyone else should know that Calgary centre holds not only the downtown core, but large swaths of middle class suburbs, which are the cons bread and butter. Plus the monied mansions along the elbow which are reliably conservative as well.

No matter the results, it's a perfect storm sort of by-election, with a polarizing cpc candidate and two very savvy challengers (the NDP sitting this one out it seems) and a situation not likely to be repeated come 2015.

[Orion0]

Perhaps this has been covered somewhere on the preceding 28 pages (which I'm too lazy to inspect), but is there any reason why the NDP seemed not to have contested Calgary Centre or the Liberals Durham?

Candidate strength.

Agreed, especially as a strong green candidate draws on the relatively soft NDP support here in Alberta.

[Orion0]

If the Liberals lose CC, then you can point your finger at McGuinty.

And the presumptive prince Trudeau.

[Orion0]

Pretty exciting that Victoria is also close, the power of byelections!
CC seems to be stabilizing though.

[Orion0]

It would seem that the Grits and Greens should have come to some sort of vote-trading agreement between Calgary Centre and Victoria and they'd both be well ahead.

Works in theory, but not on the ground. Older progressive voters write off green candidates (single issue, not in position of power, etc etc) and go liberal, and there is a large contingent in Alberta that would rather vote ABC with another caveat ABL. Never underestimate how poisoned the liberal name is among certain people in this province.

[Orion0]

Who would have thought that of the three seats, Victoria would be shaping up to be the closest!?

Not I that's for sure.

Greens could be the big winners/gainers tonight. A viable 4th party. NDP under 4% in CC down from 15% in 2011 shows just how soft their support is, and if Victoria goes green, the NDP will be spun as the big losers. Liberals also in a tough spot, but I don't foresee that changing anytime soon, especially with the coronation of Justin on the horizon. Cons need to stop feuding and if that can be done, 2015 will be a cakewalk in Calgary once again.

[Orion0]

FTR, the NDP didn't get below 9% in any riding in 2011. So, yeah bad result. Especially considering they have absolutely no campaign in CC in 2011.

The NDP guy was at every forum, unlike Crockett. It does not bode well for NDP hopes outside of Edmonton and maybe (big maybe) Lethbridge.

[Orion0]

NDP does worse in CC than the greens in Durham.
NDP pulls similar % in Durham as the greens in CC.
NDP much weaker in Victoria than expected, and likely the target of a focused attack come 2015.
All in all it's not positive signs for the NDP, given the rise of the greens.

Liberals a non-entity? I'd say they hit the high water mark in terms of raw vote #s in Calgary, and their showing in Durham and Victoria is particularly poor. I hope that they take the leadership contest seriously, as it's going to take more than a decent hairstyle and shoddy acting skills to win people back it seems.