Even if the Abacus numbers were right - the NDP would still win the vast majority of seats in Quebec...with a 10 point lead over the BQ and CPC and likely a much larger than 6 point lead on the Liberals among francophones. For any other party to get into the "pay out zone" in seats in Quebec they need to get into the high 20s
I put the Abacus numbers in the Too close to call simulator and was surprised to get 49 NDP seats which such a low vote percentage. It gave 15 Lib, 11 CPC and 3 Bloc. Last week Léger had the Bloc at 25% among francophones when at 20% general voting intentions so I imagined if the NDP gets only 30% the gap in francophone vote is something like 5% and there would be more of a split in number of ridings won.
I heard my first Conservative ad on local media (I've seen many times their attack ads on English Canadians tv channels). It was a radio ad talking about their legislation on niqab at citizenship ceremony. I had figured they must be concentrated their advertising in their target areas between Trois-Rivières and Rivière-du-Loup.
I also heard a Bloc radio ad last week about oil and niqab and returning to the Bloc. I think this one was attacking the NDP. The Conservative one mentioned Justin and Mulcair.
Many times I have come across Liberals ads on tv and radio (and even on the net), Trudeau talking about jobs and family allowances.
I think I saw one tv ad in French from the NDP one or two weeks ago and yesterday an internet banner when I visited La Presse website. They had the most campaign signs up in the days after the campaign was launched.
I'm thinking I don't watch tv at the right time because there must be more advertising going on.