Primus Inter Pares - February 2005 General Election

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January 2005 - With an economic crisis and chaos in Northern Ireland, can Livingstone survive?

Prelude: With the United Kingdom deeply divided as the Troubles in Northern Ireland explode in violence and the economy tanks after a crash in 2004, Ken Livingstone has lost a key vote on further bank nationalization and has been forced into an early election with a few more months to go. He faces Ann Widdecombe's Conservatives and Don Foster's Liberal Democrats at an apparent disadvantage, also having to fend off a large-scale rebellion of MP's under Tony Blair and his "Gang of Five". With many likening the election to 1983, can the embattled Prime Minister score the upset of the century?

Labour Party: As divided as it was on the 80's, Labour has increasingly been taken over by the hard-left, which keeps a tight leash for the party on this election. Livingstone, still retaining a decent level of public support due to his successful domestic reforms, is running on a manifesto which is as leftist (if not more) than the 1983 one, supporting bank nationalization, entry into the Euro and adoption of the European Constitution, a potential referendum on the monarchy, large scale investment in public services, support for same-sex marriage, unilateral nuclear disarmament, a pacifist foreign policy and a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should rejoin Ireland. Livingstone has also bashed the Lib Dems and New Labour for "standing for nothing" and Widdecombe as a "raving Thatcherite clone".

Conservative Party: Under Ann Widdecombe the Conservatives enter the fight in full force (despite defections from social liberal voters), rallying against the dangers of Livingstone's hardline socialism and presenting themselves as the only credible government alternative. Widdecombe has put together a populist manifesto, with moderate Eurosceptic views and staunch social conservative views which include the return of the death penalty and an anti-abortion stance (combined with pro-civil liberties stances against excessive government surveillance). Among other pledges, Widdecombe promises to reverse Labour's nationalization programme of the past eight years, introduce a ban on fox hunting, reform public services to increase efficiency and keep spending under control to recover from the economic crisis.

Liberal Democrats: Foster has kept the "progressive center-left" course, and is now presenting himself as the moderate alternative to a far-left Labour. As a result, the Lib Dem manifesto is mostly similar to that of 2001 and focusing on large-scale political reform, environmentalism, socially liberal polices and a commitment not to cut public spending to solve the economic crisis, while adding a pledge not to join McCain's wars against terrorism, driving Northern Ireland into a sensible peace process for all sides and adopting the European Constitution. Foster has also reached an agreement with New Labour, allowing both groups straight fights against Labour in a few key constituencies.

New Labour: Threatened with deselection several Labour rebels have joined forces in a new electoral vehicle (not a formal party, as they still see themselves as Laborites), currently led by Tony Blair and fielding candidates in several constituencies across the country. The New Labour rebels argue for a moderate center-left alternative, taking a strong stance against crime and terrorism, pursuing social-liberal policies, a pro-Europe view, an interventionist and humanitarian foreign policy, and attacking Livingstone and the Labour hard-left for having placed the country in such a crisis. While they have too few candidates to form a government, the New Labour rebels expect to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament, or collaborate with the Lib Dems owing to the positive relationship between both groups.

Three days for this one, info on the Livingstone Premiership can be found in the main thread.
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I'm confused to why a hard-left member would support the following, entry into the Euro and adoption of the European Constitution. It makes no sense. They're most opposed to things, especially the Euro.

Most of them are, but here's the thing, after doing research on Livingstone I found that in 2001 he not only argued for Labour to put entry into the Euro on their manifesto, he believed Labour should enter the Euro after winning a General Election without a referendum.

So while certainly a large part of the hard-left will not be pleased with Livingstone on this particular issue, he did believe and advocate in real life to enter the Euro.

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Two things, where do Livingstone and Foster stand on Afghanistan. Along with Foster's position on SSM? Thanks!

Livingstone has presided over British troops leaving Afghanistan, and he expects to end British participation by the end of 2005. Foster was supportive of the initial push to find Bin Laden and crush the Taliban regime, but have grown more skeptical of the intervention with time. They believe in a more phased and responsible withdrawal, bur withdrawal nonetheless.

Foster and the Lib Dems strongly support same-sex marriage and other equality measures.

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Fun Fact, Widdecombe still doesn't get anywhere near a majority with those numbers (constituency boundaries really help Labour, particularly on the 2005 model)

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This ends tomorrow.

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February 2005 General Election:

February 2005 - Livingstone hangs on

Labour Party: 34.9% (320 MP's)
Conservative Party: 32.6% (225 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 19% (55 MP's)
New Labour: 7.6% (14 MP's)
Others: 6% (32 MP's)

It was one of the most bizarre campaigns seen in British politics, with a result which left all three major parties in an ironic situation of disappointment. Due to the economic crisis and the perceived low popularity of the Livingstone government Widdecombe and the Tories started the campaign in the lead, with Foster and Blair being close to Livingstone in terms of the vote. This lead lasted through the early campaign, with the Lib Dems and New Labour confidently betting on a 100 seats for their parties (despite running against each other on many seats) and the Conservatives dreaming of unseating Livingstone to win a small, but workable majority. That this didn't happen was a subject of much study and scrutiny, for during the other weeks the Labour vote stabilized and even saw a rise to a narrow lead, which was only secured in the last days.

Two main factors appeared to be decisive: one, that the Labour base chose not to abandon Livingstone despite their misgivings about the Prime Minister, giving further relevance to his domestic accomplishments and in the hopes that his reshuffled cabinet could turn things about. And two, the deep divisions in the Opposition. Whatever the dreams of Blair, Foster and Widdecombe, all proved unsuitable to capitalize on the election at the right moment. Blair, while truly successful in electing several New Labour MP's and proving more skilled at that than the old SDP, was not the man to draw a larger still defection from Labour, and took many votes from the center. Foster's dynamism appeared to be increasingly gone, fighting the election in a "one more heave" attitude that was perceived to hurt the Lib Dems in the polls. Widdecombe, despite her passion at the campaign trail, was the target of immense satire and attacks from the media, combined with positions that turned off swing voters and even social-liberal Conservatives.

A stunned nation woke up to see Labour retaining a victory in the popular vote despite a large swing against the government, losing them their majority but leaving a strong minority of 320 seats. The Conservatives, despite making decent gains in terms of MP's actually lost ground in the vote share, a fact which enraged CCHQ and the Parliamentary Party. New Labour lost several of their candidates and MP's (including Ruth Kelly), but more than a dozen MP's survived, including Blair, King, Milburn and Field. The Liberal Democrats, under Foster, woke up to the disappointment of not even breaking 20% and 60 seats, targets that were considered all too possible. Despite a failed attempt at building bridges with the Lib Dems (Livingstone was willing to offer electoral reform, but his party wouldn't hear of it), Labour eventually sailed on as an unstable majority, an early election expected for 2006 and 2007.

Tony Blair remained as head of New Labour as the MP's pondered on whether to actually start a new party, and Don Foster resigned voluntarily after his failure to achieve the breakthrough. The knives also came for Widdecombe, leading to her resignation a few days after the Queen's Speech.