Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Diouf]

PD proposes Orban-style electoral law. FFS. They try to brand it as a "adjusted German system", but in reality it is not anything like that when the proportional seats are not top-up seats. More like an adjusted Mattarellum if anything. Lega Nord seems to like it because they could win on this proposal due to being able to win several constituencies in the North, but hopefully the other parties will prevent this from coming through.

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2017/05/17/pd-to-present-proposal-for-german-style-electoral-law_638c3e73-f5f0-4117-84c2-08a2528e2cc5.html

[Diouf]

Orban-style electoral law

Well, to me the Hungarian electoral law seems to be as democratic as the electoral laws of developed democracies like the US, UK, Canada (FPTP), France (majoritarian with run-off) and Germany (effectively proportional). Calling it Orban-style associates it with Orban's authoritarian tendencies, but it is not some evil, manipulative trick engineered by Orban, it is just the Hungarian electoral law. It is not the electoral law's fault that the Hungarian opposition is unable to mount a cohesive, competitive challenge. I completely agree that Orban's regime is not a full democracy under every aspect, because democracy does not just mean the rule of the majority. But Orban would get a solid majority under many different electoral laws.

Regarding Italy I prefer electoral laws with (local) run-offs (or IRV, AV etc.) over FPTP. Incidentially Hungary does have run-offs.

(And yes, the proposed Rosatellum is much closer to the Mattarellum than to the German system.)

I fully agree with all of this. The Hungarian electoral system is not worse than FPTP for example.  It is just a small attempt to "spin back" against the PD with its German style nonsense. The Hungarian comparison then has the added benefit of being much more accurate

[Diouf]

It seems like FI and M5S can succesfully push PD to adapt an actual German-style electoral system. Great of them to take the PD-spin and turn into reality. It still seems like there are some differences, like whether there should there be a majority bonus at 40%, but hopefully an agreement can be reached.

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2017/05/29/pd-fi-m5s-working-on-election-law-deal_bbaefa06-5a8c-4c9a-9dfc-1194ecc050b1.html

[Diouf]

Centre-right coalition formalized

[Diouf]

YouTrend seat projections:

[Diouf]

Bidimedia

[Diouf]

M5S, Lega and FdL likely have a majority with these numbers. Is such a coalition possible?

When you look at voter's selfplacement, there is a relatively little overlap betweeen M5S and Lega. I know a single-axis political model does not explain everything in this day and age, but it does suggest that the vast bulk of M5S voters consider themselves leftwing, so a coalition with Lega and FdL will likely be problematic. M5S are also generally more divided across the spectrum than the other parteis, which is another reason why they are weary of any coalition.

[Diouf]

M5S, Lega and FdL likely have a majority with these numbers. Is such a coalition possible?

When you look at voter's selfplacement, there is a relatively little overlap betweeen M5S and Lega. I know a single-axis political model does not explain everything in this day and age, but it does suggest that the vast bulk of M5S voters consider themselves leftwing, so a coalition with Lega and FdL will likely be problematic. M5S are also generally more divided across the spectrum than the other parteis, which is another reason why they are weary of any coalition.

Do you happen to have a source for that graph?

https://medium.com/@jamesdennison_7425/how-might-undecided-italians-vote-tomorrow-bd24c8670b1f

[Diouf]

First senate result from tiny polling place in Lucca!

Centre-right 11 votes (FI 9, Lega 1, FdI 1)
M5S 8 votes
Centre-left 5 votes (PD 5)
Communist party 1 vote

[Diouf]

VoteWatch has looked at which parties, M5S has voted the most with in the European Parliament. This is also an imperfect measure, but, like the chart of voter self-placement, it shows that M5S most closely resembles a Podemos/Syriza-style party. They are more critical of non-western immigration (although the exact degree is hard to gauge) and less ideologically (and more pure protestically) left-wing.

[Diouf]

I guess the argument for M5S to tie-up with LN is not about ideological agreement but: "what would be the most disruptive to the "system""?

Sure. And I will certainly not rule it out, particularly if this ends up as M5S' only way of getting power. However, I just see a big chance that such a deal with also be the most disruptive to M5S.

[Diouf]

Only half of those who voted PD in the 2014 European Elections voted for PD again. 15.6% did not vote. 34.2% voted for other parties, of those half voted for M5S.

[Diouf]

Confirmed FPTP Senate Seats winners so far. 20 seats from Veneto, VALLE D'AOSTA, UMBRIA, MARCHE, LIGURIA, FRIULI-VENEZIA GIULIA. There are 116 FPTP senate seats.

Centre-right 15
Lega 7
Forza Italia 4
FdI 3
NcI-UDC 1

M5S 4

Centre-left 1
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Diouf]

Molise and Puglio done now as well. 9 more seats, all M5S.

Centre-right 15
Lega 7
Forza Italia 4
FdI 3
NcI-UDC 1

M5S 13

Centre-left 1
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Diouf]

Trentino-Alto Adige now finished. 6 seats more.

Centre-right 18
Lega 7
Forza Italia 6
FdI 4
NcI-UDC 1

M5S 13

Centre-left 4
PD 1
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Diouf]

Abruzzo, Basilicata, Piemonte finished. 11 additional seats.

Centre-right 26
Lega 9
Forza Italia 10
FdI 5
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 15

Centre-left 5
PD 2
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Diouf]

Campania and Sicilia finished. 20 additional seats, all M5S.

Centre-right 26
Lega 9
Forza Italia 10
FdI 5
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 35

Centre-left 5
PD 2
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Diouf]

Is this FPTP or the Senate?

The Senate FPTP seats. There are 116. Once they have all been finished, the 193 proportional senate seats should also be confirmed.

[Diouf]

Calabria finished. Another 3 seats for M5S and one for FI.

Centre-right 27
Lega 9
Forza Italia 11
FdI 5
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 5
PD 2
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Diouf]

Lombardia finished.

Centre-right 44
Lega 17
Forza Italia 17
FdI 8
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 6
PD 3
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1

[Diouf]

How long should it take to get the final seat count?

Less than 100 polling places are left to announce their result, so it shouldn't be too long. However, all results are needed before the proportional seats can be officially announced as well. There is a few seats from Italians abroad, that might take a bit longer to get results from.

[Diouf]

Toscana also done. 

Centre-right 48
Lega 18
Forza Italia 19
FdI 9
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 9
PD 5
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1

[Diouf]

Emilia-Romagna done. Only Sardinia and Lazio left.

Centre-right 52
Lega 20
Forza Italia 20
FdI 10
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 38

Centre-left 13
PD 8
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1
Civica Popolare 1

[Diouf]

M5S swept the three Sardinia seats. Now we are only waiting for Lazio, and we should have the full results.

Centre-right 52
Lega 20
Forza Italia 20
FdI 10
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 41

Centre-left 13
PD 8
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1
Civica Popolare 1

[Diouf]

M5S swept the three Sardinia seats. Now we are only waiting for Lazio, and we should have the full results.

Centre-right 52
Lega 20
Forza Italia 20
FdI 10
NcI-UDC 2

M5S 41

Centre-left 13
PD 8
SVP 2
UV (Valle d'Aosta) 1
Italia Europa Insieme 1
Civica Popolare 1

How did you figure out the party identity of the FPTP winners?  None of the sites I looked at has that info.

Googling and Facebooking the winning candidates to find the information. For some, it was a bit hard, so it's possible that there is a mistake or two. It takes some time, which is why I haven't done it for the Chamber