Icelandic parliamentary election 2016

[Diouf]

Final polls from four different pollsters. Independence Party, Pirate Party, Left-Greens, Revival, Progressive Party, Bright Future, Social Democratic Alliance.

[Diouf]

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/elections2016/

It looks this English site will update on the results when they start running in from around 10 (GMT).

Their summary of how things look with the final opinion polls:

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[Diouf]

Is this PR?

Yes, it is. Unfortunately not open-list, I believe, but otherwise basically the Danish system, so as good as it gets
54 persons are elected by the D'hondt method in 6 constituencies; Reykjavik North and South, Southwest, Northwest, Northeast, South. An additional 9 seats are distributed among parties who pass the 5% thereshold nationally to make sure the result is also proportional on the national level.

[Diouf]

Icelandic TV link here: http://www.ruv.is/ruv

Pirate Party youtube live here: https://www.youtube.com/c/PiratenpartijPPNL/live

[Diouf]

Results starting to come in now. Predicted national result suggests that the Pirates might only finish 3rd; the Left-Green Movement is currently slightly ahead with the same number of seats. It predicts 31 seats for the left wing parties, one seat less than required for a majority. This means the new centre-right party Revival will likely be decisive. But still early, and I guess the big Pirate revolution is predicted in Reykjavik

[Diouf]

Predicted national result only has left-wing parties on 29 seats now, so the four-party left wing majority looks unlikely to occur. Pirates only on 13.5 % in a distant third place.

[Diouf]

Hard to predict which government will be formed now, I guess.

There is a centre-right majority with Independence - Revival - Progressive, but there are major differences between these parties on EU-membership, free trade, fishery etc. Revival is a breakout from Independence Party, and I don't know whether they are on OK terms. Also for a Revival party with a new style vibe, it might be too old-fashioned to simply team up with the traditional two right wing parties immediately.  Progressive party was hammered, so they would like some time to re-build.

I guess Revival could try to form a sort of modernizing majority with the left wing parties, but it will be messy with five-party cooperation with some huge ideological differences.

Since the Independence Party is by far the largest party, they will be hard to avoid in government formation, but there is no clear viable majority for them.

[Diouf]

Self-description by the Revival-party before the election:

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It seems like Bright Future and Revival is rather similar, with the former leaning centre-left and the latter leaning centre-right. The Independence Party will just have a majority, 32 seats, together with these two parties. This is probably among the more likely scenarios, although a one-seat majority might be deemed to thin as just one defection would make it collapse. But the political differences should be more manageable than most other possible scenarios. 

http://grapevine.is/mag/articles/2016/10/10/where-do-they-want-to-take-us-the-platforms-explained/

[Diouf]

No, the most likely scenario seems to be a coalition consisting of the Left-Greens, Pirates, Bright Future and Regeneration, supported from the outside by the Social Democratic Alliance, who do not want to govern because they have lost so much. The absolute expert on Icelandic politics, a certain Scandinavian poster who was banned from participating on this forum, agrees with this (see AAD). The reason is that Regeneration explicitly state they do not want to govern with Independence. While there are vast differences in outlook among the Left-Greens and Pirates on the one hand and Regeneration on the other hand, they could probably agree on some sort of a reformist agenda, perhaps including a referendum on EU membership and a proposal for a new constitution.

Well, just looked there. And the three possible coalitions mentioned are basically the same as those I have described in the two last posts:

There is a centre-right majority with Independence - Revival - Progressive

I guess Revival could try to form a sort of modernizing majority with the left wing parties

It seems like Bright Future and Revival is rather similar, with the former leaning centre-left and the latter leaning centre-right. The Independence Party will just have a majority, 32 seats, together with these two parties.

[Diouf]

Finally a government in Iceland.

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I'm not sure the EU vote is much of a concession, but will probably take a lot of space in international reporting. The anti-EU parties have a clear majority in parliament, so even a few rebels will not be enough. To not even get started on the very low probability of a yes in a referendum.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14U12T?il=0