European Parliament elections, June 2024

[Diouf]

Der (europäische) Föderalist also has regular projections of how the new EP will look.
Their May projection, where the distribute new parties to their most likely group, look like this:

EPP 172
S&D 137
Renew 99
ID 83
ECR 82
Greens/EFA 54
The Left 50
Non-Inscrits 28

So the Greens and Renew are in better shape here:

From their blog:
"Although the Greens are in crisis in their main stronghold Germany, several other member parties of the Greens/EFA group have recently improved their standing in the polls. These include the French EELV (EGP), the Czech Piráti (PPEU) and the Swedish MP (EGP), which is now back above the national four per cent threshold. Moreover, the Luxembourg Piratepartei and the Dutch Volt party would enter parliament for the first time.
All in all, this brings the projection for the Greens/EFA group to 50 seats (+8), its best figure in two years. For the European Greens, who suffered one setback after another in the polls during the first half of the parliamentary term, things seem to be moving forward again."

"The RE group is performing somewhat weaker than eight weeks ago. In both Germany and France, the Liberals went through a crisis in the spring from which they are slowly recovering. In the Czech Republic and Slovakia, too, RE member parties are doing slightly better than in March.

In other countries, however, the situation is considerably worse: In Italy, the liberal-centrist alliance between Azione (EDP) and Italia Viva (EDP) ended with mutual personal accusations between the two party leaders. In Finland, Keskusta (ALDE) suffered a crushing defeat in the national parliamentary election in April and has fallen further behind in the polls since. In the Netherlands, the liberal-conservative governing party VVD (ALDE) has been hit by the rapid rise of the agrarian-populist BBB (–). Overall, the RE group falls back to 92 seats (–⁠2) in the seat projection – its worst performance since summer 2020."


You can see the seat projection for each party in the table on the site here:

https://www.foederalist.eu/2023/05/ep-seat-projection-may-2023.html

[Diouf]

In Denmark, my current guess would be to distribute the first 13 seats as below. And then the 14th seat quite open between Social Democrats, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance. If parliament is expanded, which it really shouldn't be, then there would be a 15th seat to distribute between those parties as well.

Social Democrats (S&D) 3
SPP (Greens/EFA) 2
Liberals (ALDE) 2
Liberal Alliance (Most likely ALDE, perhaps EPP) 1
Conservatives (EPP) 1
Denmark Democrats (Probably ECR) 1
Red-Green Alliance (GUE-NGL) 1
Moderates (Likely ALDE) 1
DPP (currently ID) 1

[Diouf]

Agence Europe reports that the Coreper has accepted a compromise proposal which expands the EP to 720 seats. It's behind a paywall, so can't see the exact distribution, but Danish MEPs report it means an extra Danish seat, so now 15. With acceptance om Coreper, it would take something really weird for the Council proper to not approve it.

 https://agenceurope.eu/en/bulletin/article/13230/2

[Diouf]

Consultancy firm Rud Petersen has made the following prediction of vote share for the Danish parties for Politiken. I have added seat figures based on the known and predicted electoral alliances. We know Social Democrats, SPP and Alternative will ally, and that Liberal Alliance + Conservatives will do the same. My best guess is then an alliance between DPP and New Right, and one between Liberals, Moderates and Social Liberals.

Social Democrats 20.2% 3 seats
SPP 15.9% 3
Liberal Alliance 11.7% 2
Liberals 9.2% 2
Denmark Democrats 9.8% 1
Red-Green Alliance 8.1% 1
Moderates 7.6% 1
Conservatives 5.9% 1
DPP 4.2 1
Social Liberals 4.1% 0
New Right 2.2% 0
Alternative 1.1% 0

For the new parties, Moderates will go to Renew. Denmark Democrats seems very likely to join ECR, while Liberal Alliance seems to ponder between EPP and Renew.

[Diouf]

The Liberal Alliance lead candidate Henrik Dahl has announced that the party will join EPP in the European Parliament. He said it was a difficult decision between them and Renew, but that ultimately Renew is too federalist and too much like the Social Liberals. He says the biggest reservations with the EPP is about their opposition to environmental and climate legislation, but that this is an issue where the party could follow their own policies.

https://avisendanmark.dk/politik/i-en-fortrolig-samtale-med-lars-loekke-blev-henrik-dahl-bekraeftet-i-en-ny-erkendelse-om-eu

[Diouf]

The European Council President Charles Michel will run as a candidate for the European Parliament.

Michel plans to take up his seat in the European Parliament mid-July if he’s elected, meaning EU leaders will have to agree quickly on a successor for his vacated Council post. If they don’t, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose country will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU in July, would lead the meetings — a broker-role normally undertaken by the European Council president

It’s the first time a sitting Council president will be a candidate in a European parliamentary election. Michel would normally have stayed on in the job until the end of November, when the new College of Commissioners would be installed. While Michel’s move is legally kosher, it piles extra pressure on European leaders, as they usually have more time for wheeling and dealing during the great top-job carve up that always comes after the five-yearly EU ballots.

https://www.politico.eu/article/charles-michel-to-run-for-eu-election-2024-top-jobs-viktor-orban/

[Diouf]

My best guess is then an alliance between DPP and New Right, and one between Liberals, Moderates and Social Liberals.

It seems like this Renew electoral alliance is about to be in place. At their new year event today, the Social Liberal leader Martin Lidegaard accidentally said 'our electoral alliance' when looking at Liberal leader Troels Lund Poulsen. And if those two party are allied, it would surprising if Moderates aren't involved as well.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2024-01-07-lidegaard-gjorde-salen-helt-stille-talte-han-lige-over-sig

[Diouf]

In Denmark, Epinion made a poll for Altinget and DR about the lead candidates for each party. For 9 out of 12 lead candidates, more than half of the population didn't know them. And still the numbers probably overrate the familiarity of the candidates somewhat, since the campaigns are not really starting yet.

Ranked from most to least known, with approval rating added (approve minus disapprove, don't knows discarded)

Morten Løkkegaard, Liberals, 30% unfamiliar, +8 approval
Stine Bosse, Moderates, 37%, +13
Martin Henriksen, New Right, 40%, -25
Henrik Dahl, Liberal Alliance, 51%, -8
Christel Schaldemose, Social Democrats, 53%, +2
Anders Vistisen, DPP, 59%, -10
Per Clausen, Red-Green Alliance, 62%, -4
Niels Flemming Hansen, Conservatives, 74%, -2
Kira Marie Peter Hansen, SPP, 76%, =
Jan Kristoffersen, Alternative, 76%, -4
Kristoffer Storm, Denmark Democrats, 77%, -3
Sigrid Friis, Social Liberals, 77%, -2

It's worth noting that since the poll was conducted, the New Right is no longer eligble to run at the European elections, so one of the most well-known (and the most unpopular) lead candidates is no longer in the field.

One might have an tendency to underrate Morten Løkkegaard, but he was the candidate with the highest personal vote at the 2019 European elections, despite the Liberals also running the very popular Søren Gade on their list. He was a TV host before becoming a politician, and has been a MEP 2009-2014 and 2016-now. And his approvals are quite good as well, so there should be a good chance of him overperforming the party's current woes. The rest of the list is okay with MEP Asger Christensen, ex-MP and Minister Ulla Tørnæs and ex-mayor and MP Carsten Kissmeyer plus some decent young talents. A Renew electoral alliance with Moderates and Social Liberals is expected to be announced soon.

The Moderates look in a strong position with famous and fairly popular lead Stine Bosse, the former business woman and leader of the European Movement. And then with MEP Bergur Løkke Rasmussen, former Conservative leader and minister Lars Barfoed plus MP Karin Liltorp as candidates, they should get a good result.

Henrik Dahl is somewhat known as lead candidate for Liberal Alliance. He belongs to the right wing of the party with quite tough views on immigration, so he is perhaps not gonna challenge as much for the pro-EU liberals as other LA candidates would have done. The rest of the list is filled with unknown people, so the question is whether they can get a very good result even with a below-par list.

Christel Schaldemose has been a MEP for the Social Democrats since 2006, so has plenty of experience with EP politics, but has never been a household name in Denmark. The party's two other MEPs Niels Fuglsang and Marianne Vind are also running again, but are even lesser know. Journalist Magnus Barsøe looks like the only other likely candidate in play for a seat. But it's the strenght of the party which will carry them through.

Anders Vistisen from DPP was a MEP from 2014-2019 and again since November 2022. He is a fairly good campaigner, with New Right currently out of the picture and DPP making slight progress, I would expect him to get fairly close to a seat. But whether they can get all the way to the 5-6% likely to be necessary might be too big of an ask. No-one else worth noting on the list.

Long-time MP Per Clausen should get things done fairly calmly for the Red-Green Alliance. He is the only notable candidate for the party, but with them currently doing quite well and them being the only Eurosceptic left-wing option, I think he should be able to get his seat.

But on the left-wing, Red-Green Alliance might be overshadowed by SPP. Not by their young incumbent MEP and lead candidate Kira Marie Peter Hansen, but by former SPP leader and Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal, who could be a good candidate to top the personal vote charts. The party is also running former MP Rasmus Nordqvist, who was a lead candidate for the Alternative in 2019.

The Conservatives have a completely unknown MP as lead candidate, with the more divisive ex-MP Marcus Knuth relegated to second on the list, and another ex-MP Birgitte Bergman as third. I think the party's strength, three okayish candidates, and not least the electoral alliance with LA will secure them a seat once again.

Alternative will have a very hard time getting a MEP with a list of complete unkowns and polling low.

Denmark Democrats are doing well in national polls, but are running a completely untested candidate here. And so far the party seems to be running on its own, so if they fall below 6% the seat could be in danger.

Ex Social Liberal Youth leader Sigrid Friis impressively fought off three ex-MPs to become the party's lead candidate. With the party not polling very well, she might need to perform another surprise to ensure the party stays represented in the EP.


My current estimates for the 15 seats on electoral alliance.

Red-Green (Social Democrats, SPP, Alternative): They should get at least five seats, and likely six. I think Villy Søvndal could propel SPP high and close to the Social Democrats, but propably not higher than them. So I think the five would go to three Social Democrats and two SPPs. And then if there's a sixth, it could be a quite equal battle between the two. I don't see the Alternative getting close.

Renew (Liberals, Moderates, Social Liberals): They should get at least three seats, and likely four. Both Liberals and Moderates have quite strong line-ups. From the three seats, I think Liberals will get 2 and Moderates 1. A fourth seat could be open between all three parties, perhaps with a second Moderate a bit more likely than a Social Liberals one or a third Liberal.

EPP (Liberal Alliance, Conservatives): They should get three seats, and probably two for Liberal Alliance. Liberal Alliance are doing very well in current national parliament polls, so maybe they will overperform. But I just don't see any of the two parties candidates' being very big assets.

Red-Green Alliance: Likely one seat

Denmark Democrats: Probably one seat if Kristoffer Storm can do ok, and maybe if they shore up their list a bit.

DPP: They are still doing quite poorly in most polls, except YouGov, so it would take something to get a seat. But Messerschmidt is particularly fond of the European question, and Vistisen a decent candidate, so again I think they could get close to a seat.

[Diouf]

Renew (Liberals, Moderates, Social Liberals): They should get at least three seats, and likely four. Both Liberals and Moderates have quite strong line-ups. From the three seats, I think Liberals will get 2 and Moderates 1. A fourth seat could be open between all three parties, perhaps with a second Moderate a bit more likely than a Social Liberals one or a third Liberal.

This electoral alliance now official. So three major electoral alliances are now in place. It seems certain that Red-Green Alliance will run on its own. Then there's DPP and Denmark Democrats left. I haven't heard any rumours about a potential alliance there. Even though both are Eurosceptic, DPP is it to a far bigger degree, and Støjberg is very focused on keeping DD as a party where government participation is possible. Also Denmark Democrats might currently feel quite hopeful that they can get enough votes on themselves to get a seat, considering their national polls.

[Diouf]

First Danish EU poll by Epinion for Altinget and DR

Social Democrats 22% 4 seats
SPP 12% 2 seats
Liberals 11% 1 2 seats
Liberal Alliance 10% 1 seat
Denmark Democrats 9% 1 seat
Red-Green Alliance 7% 1 seat
DPP 7% 1 seat
Moderates 7% 1 seat
Conservatives 6 1 seat
Social Liberals 6% 1 seat
Alternative 1% 0 seats

With both Denmark Democrats, Red-Green Alliance and DPP making it above the threshold, there is one less seat than 'expected' to distribute among the three electoral alliances. It's quite narrow, but in this poll it means that the EPP alliance only gets two seats, so Liberal Alliance only end with one. But relatively few vores should have been moved, to make it the fourth Social Democrat seat disappearing instead.

But the campaign hasn't started yet, so much can happen. But at least interesting to see DPP already ahead of their usual national polling.

[Diouf]

Is the People's Movement against the EU dead?

As an electoral entity, yes. After failing to get in last time, they decided to instead become an organization participating in the public debate, in the same way as e.g. the European Movement.

It would also take the collection of more than 70 000 signatures to be able to run, which would require a lot of effort.

[Diouf]

Ipsos for Euronews has polled a number of countries for the EP elections:

https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/europeennes-vers-une-progression-de-la-droite-radicale-au-parlement-europeen

Denmark:
Social Democrats 21.0%, 4 seats
Liberal Alliance 13.0%, 2 seats
SPP 12.0%, 2 seats
Liberals 10.5%, 2 seats
Denmark Democrats 8.5%, 1 seat
Red-Green Alliance 8.0%, 1 seat
Moderates 7.0%, 1 seat
Conservatives 6.0%, 1 seat
Social Liberals 6.0%, 1 seat
DPP 5.0%, 0 seats
Alternative 2.0%, 0 seats

[Diouf]

As expected Denmark Democrats will join ECR, if they get elected

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/eu/danmarksdemokraterne-har-fundet-sine-allierede-i-eu-og-en-af-dem-er

[Diouf]

Epinion poll for Denmark for Altinget + DR

The Moderates drop significantly, and would not get a seat with such a result. Much is attributed to lead candidate Stine Bosse's migration mess. The centre-left alliance is so far moving in the direction I expect, i.e. declining slightly combined and with SPP getting very close to Social Democrats in percentage terms. The sixth seat for the centre-left alliance is now the most marginal of the 15 Danish seats on 6.17%, although with a gap of around 0.5% to another seat for the Renew alliance. And it's only just that the Social Democrats take that seat instead of SPP (5.0% vs 4.9%).

I expect SPP to end up very close to Social Democrats, and if Villy Søvndal play the large role expected, I'm not ruling out SPP as biggest party and Søvndal as lead vote getter. I certainly think that if the alliance ends up with 6 seats, it will be 3-3 rathern than 4-2 Social Democrat.

The treshold for getting a seat for the single parties (Red-Green, DPP, Denmark Democrats) in this poll is around 5.7%. So in this poll, they all three get a seat.

Social Democrats 20.1% 4 seats
SPP 14.6% 2 seats
Alternative 2.3% 0 seats

Liberals 11.2% 2 seats
Social Liberals 7.0% 1 seat
Moderates 4.5% 0 seats

Liberal Alliance 12.0% 2 seats
Conservatives 6.8% 1 seat

Denmark Democrats 8.1% 1 seat

Red-Green Alliance 6.9% 1 seat

DPP 6.5% 1 seat

[Diouf]

In Denmark, it has been a quiet campaign so far, and there is speculation that the turnout could get be quite low. In 2019 it was all the way up at 66.08% as it was only a few days before the general election. Some political scientists predict that we could get all the way down towards the 2004 turnout which was 47.89%.
The significant debates has not happened yet. On Tuesday there will be a debate between party leaders, and then Thursday there will be the debate between EU election lead candidates. And then the election is on Sunday.

There has been some but not a lot of polling yet. The latest Megafon poll actually showed, as I had teased might happen, SPP as the largest party, just ahead of the Social Democrats. But all other polls have still had Social Democrats at least 4-5% bigger than SPP at around 21%. For the three parties running on their own, Red-Green Alliance, Denmark Democrats and DPP, it looks like their threshold for a seat will be slightly below 6%. Red-Greens are mostly quite stable in polls at around 6-7%, while DD and DPP results fluctuate more wildly between just below the treshold and being close to 10%. A recent poll had half of all likely voters as still in doubt, and a third was hard doubters ( no choice even when pushed). So there could be some big late changes.

Currently it looks like this

Centre-left alliance
Social Democrats 19.2%
SPP 15.1%
Alternative 1.7%

This alliance will get at least five seats. And on these figures they will just get the 15th and last Danish seat, so they are on six overall. As previously written, I think there's a chance that SPP could get close to or even bigger than Social Democrats. Alternative won't get near seats, so the distribution is likely to be 3-3 between the two big parties if the alliance ends up on 6, and 3-2 to the largest of them if they end up with 5.

Renew Alliance
Liberals 13.0%
Moderates 5.1%
Social Liberals 4.9%

The alliance will get at least three seats. Currently they are just about not getting a 4th seat. Liberals are holding on surprisingly well so far, so on these numbers the party would actually take the two first seats in the alliance, as their second divisor is 6.5%. Then it's a close battle between the two smaller, most clearly pro-EU parties about the last seat. If they do get the fourth seat, they would likely get one each and all parties in the alliance would get a satisfying outcome.

Centre-right alliance
Liberal Alliance 11.0%
Conservatives 7.1%

The alliance will get at least two seats. On current polls they also get a third as the 14th and second-to last Danish seat. Liberal Alliance is not hitting the heights of general election polls, and the Conservatives are doing a bit better than there. So currently it's quite clear a seat for each, and then a second seat for LA if they end on three.

Denmark Democrats 8.5%
DPP 7.6%
Red-Green Alliance 6.6%

On current polls they all three get a seat. But as written above polls are quite divided on the two top parties with some having them without a seat or very close to that.

[Diouf]

An interesting and fairly fierce party leader debate in Denmark.
Mette Frederiksen can probably feel the SPP's breath down her neck, and went quite hard against SPP's Olsen Dyhr, who dithered on the question of whether Denmark should join the refugee distribution mechanism (as the party's lead candidate has said they should). Lars Løkke Rasmussen brought a prop, a straw, which he used to attack Liberal Alliance and DPP for 'unserious campaigns' when focusing on EU's regulation of plastic straws instead of big issues as war, climate and migration.
Inger Støjberg delicatedly used the wedge in the Liberals on the climate question, when she cited Liberal MEP and farm Asger Christensen as being an example of a very efficient and climate friendly Danish farm, who already emits far less carbon per kg meat compared to many other countries, where the Danish cattle could move with a carbon tax on farming.
Feels like this was only really when the campaign started. Denmark doesn't vote until Sunday, so interesting if we will start getting some more movement in polls now, or whether it might even come to late for pollsters to really catch up.

[Diouf]

The Danish TV debate between EP lead candidates was tonight.

The Liberal lead candidate Morten Løkkegaard seemed the most convincing to me. He topped the personal vote chart in 2019, and it does seem like he could drag the party to an acceptable result despite the national woes.

Social Democrats and SPP have upped their attacks against each other. Social Democrats keep going after the SPP dithering on refugee relocation. SPP attacks Social Democrats for not being green enough.

The Social Democrats have had a poor day with the 2nd candidate and current MEP Niels Fuglsang proposing mandatory energy effective targets for private housing, paid for by owners of those houses. Lead candidate Christel Schaldemose has hammered the proposal down and rejected it clearly, but most news pages have been dominated by this today, and it started the debate tonight as well.

Both on the Eurosceptic right, DPP and Denmark Democrats, did quite fine. I think it looks most likely they will both get a seat, if their Eurosceptic voters bother to turn out.
Both EPP lead candidates are quite boring. Particularly Liberal Alliance's Henrik Dahl was very quiet and subdued, quite a difference from party leader Alex Vanopslagh. Easy to see why there's no way near the same enthusiasm for him.
Sigrid Friis from Social Liberals did quite well. Stine Bosse from Moderates were ok, but still dragged a lot on her "Wir Schaffen Das" refugee statements from the start of the campaign.
On the left, Alternative Jan Kristoffersen seemed very lightweight. Red-Green Per Clausen not a rabblerouser either, but still should do enough to get a seat.

[Diouf]

Social Democrats and SPP have upped their attacks against each other. Social Democrats keep going after the SPP dithering on refugee location.

Can you tell us more about the arguments they're using? I'm curious how intra-left disputes about immigration/refugees look like in Denmark, given how Mette is famous for her policies on that front and from what I heard SF and Ø aren't particularly liberal either.

Here the argument was about whether Denmark should join the new EU refugee distribution mechanism. Social Democrats are clearly against, while SPP really are dithering and talking about taking 500 UN refugees instead of answering clearly.

Social Democrat lead candidate Christel Schaldemose has tweeted a lot about this refusal to answer clearly from SPP in recent days, and attacked in the same way during the debate.

https://x.com/SchaldemoseMEP/status/1798063006640939164
https://x.com/SchaldemoseMEP/status/1798417129571598807
https://x.com/SchaldemoseMEP/status/1798831933226656191

I think SPP are a bit caught between two wishes. On one hand they want to be a serious, mainstream party on immigration in Denmark, so that they can be part of a government and broad political deals. On the other hand, they would also still like to keep their many soft left voters, and not reject outright taking more refugees. As well as fitting into the EP Green Group by not rejecting the refugee distribution.
So they have landed on this place, where they don't say clearly yes or no to the EU distribution mechanism, which is expected to send around 7 000 refugees to Denmark, and instead just say the line about taking 500 UN refugees. So they are doing something pro-refugee without being loony.

[Diouf]

We will probably only get a couple of final EP polls in Denmark tomorrow or Sunday, and since I will be a polling worker on Sunday and might not make it tomorrow, I will try to make my guess of the 15 Danish MEPs now. Or at least the layers of likelyness. Hard to know whether the assault on Frederiksen will matter. If it gives a big boost to Social Democrats, then of course they could do much better than otherwise expected. I haven't figured it in at all.

Safe:
Christel Schaldemose - Social Democrats (S&D)
A second Social Democrat (S&D)
Kira Marie Peter-Hansen - SPP (G/EFA)
Villy Søvndal - SPP (G/EFA)
Morten Løkkegaard - Liberals (Renew)
Henrik Dahl - Liberal Alliance (EPP)

Very likely:
Niels Flemming Hansen - Conservatives (EPP)
Kristoffer Storm - Denmark Democrats (ECR)
A second Liberal (Renew)

Quite likely:
Anders Vistisen - DPP (ID)
Per Clausen - Red-Green Alliance (The Left)

On the edge
Rasmus Nordqvist - SPP (G/EFA)
Stine Bosse - Moderates (Renew)
Sigrid Friis - Social Liberals (Renew)
A third Social Democrat (S&D)
A second Liberal Alliance (EPP)

Possible
A fourth Social Democrat (S&D)
A fourth SPP (G/EFA)
A third Liberal (Renew)

Unlikely
Jan Kristoffersen - Alternativet (G/EFA)
A second Conservative (EPP)

Based on current poll, it looks likely than all three parties running alone will do enough to get a seat. This means that there is two seat left to fight for between the tree electoral alliances. Will the centre-left get their sixth, will Renew get their fourth or will the centre-right get their third? While LA has underperformed, it still looks most likely they will benefit from the third centre-right seat. In the Renew alliance, it's very close between Moderates and Social Liberals for the third seat, so one of them will likely need the alliance to get four to enter EP. And if Liberals get a boost from Løkkegaard, maybe even a third Liberal seat is in play. In the centre-left alliance, it could be tight between Social Democrats and SPP. The bigger of the two will get the fifth seat, while the other will have to hope for a sixth seat if they are to end up on three as well. An outside possibility of a seventh seat for them, and perhaps also still possible we could have a 4-2 distribution instead of 3-3.

For the Social Democrats, it seems quite open who will be second, third and fourth most popular on their list. Last time Niels Fuglsang got 29 444 votes and Marianne Vind got 27 396. Journalist Magnus Barsøe could be in play as well. Fuglsang probably the most known one and with an impressively broad campaign, but then his mistake about the housing proposal yesterday got a lot of criticism.

For the Liberals, it could be quite open who will be the second-most popular candidate. MEP Asger Christensen got 31 347 personal votes in 2019, but this time he will have to fend off Ulla Tørnæs, a former long time MP and Minister. I think the latter could be slightly favoured.

For the Liberal Alliance, second on the list Mads Strange seems to have a quite good youth vote, so could be favoured. Danny Malkowski has been a replacement MP previously, but otherwise not many known names.