Some of my thoughts

[Hoverbored123]

On #1, I'm inclined to agree, even if the bounce is only temporary (my guess is that it is). 

#3 I agree with strongly.  As Wayne Allyn Root opined some months ago, Obama has nowhere to go but down compared to 2008. 

#4 could be true, but it's largely speculation.

#5 is definitely true.  No matter what the convention bounce is for Obama, the economy is still working against him. 

#7- I wouldn't be at all surprised if the GOP won control of congress, but I wouldn't forecast an Obama victory just yet.  As Michael Berry of CU-Boulder pointed out, Jimmy Carter in 1980 would have the same odds Obama has now.  This isn't to say that 2012 will be a Romney landslide, but a Romney upset is far from impossible. 

Sadly, I have to agree on #8.  If Romney manages to go all the way in November, he'll have his work cut out for him come January.