Canadian federal election - 2015

[DC Al Fine]

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As an American who knows embarrassing little about Canadian politics what would be the outcome if this was the final result of the federal election? Also what if CPC had 126 seats to NDP 124?

Traditionally, in a tie, the incumbent gets first crack at forming a government. Historically, in either of the scenarios you posited, the Tories would form government and try to bribe other parties to get their bills passed. Eventually they'd fail, the government would fall and there would be another election.

However, the most likely situation today would have the NDP & Liberals working out some sort of arrangement (either a coalition or something less formal).

[DC Al Fine]

I think the more interesting question here is, what would happen if the polls hold and all three parties finish close together? Something like:

Con: 115
Lib: 105
NDP: 105
Oth: 5

Would the two left leaning parties work together if they both had a claim on the PM spot?

[DC Al Fine]

I think talk of Tory civil war is wishful thinking on the left's part. Jason Kenny will probably win the next leadership convention in a comfortably dull fashion.

[DC Al Fine]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/federal-parties-in-dead-heat-in-poll-that-shows-57percent-of-canadians-would-support-a-coalition-government/ar-BBkP6Cr

This article on this poll says as well

The Tories are within a majority

Great news for Harper and the Conservatives

Do you honestly believe that a party would get a majority with only a 1% lead? Or do you really believe what the media is telling you?

It's likely very rare, but it's not entirely unheard of.  These are the results of the Alberta election excluding Edmonton and (some) of the Edmonton suburbs. (For a description of what is an isn't included, check out the wiki page on the 2015 Alberta elections for how they defined the regions.)

NDP 32.75% 33
W.R 29.40 21
P.C 30.12 10
Lib 3.84 1
A.P 2.71 1


So the NDP won 33 of 66 ridings in a virtual 3 way split.  If the votes fall just right, you can win a majority under these circumstances.

Heck, the Tories nearly won a majority off a 4% loss in 1979.

[DC Al Fine]

Part of me thinks the Conservatives are continuing to attack the Liberals in order to cause the NDP to surge, allowing them to run a campaign accusing the NDP of being the reincarnation of the Bolsheviks who wish to impose Sharia Law and raise a carbon tax of 200%, or something.

We're not that smart, and we're not that dumb.

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP got 32.6% of the vote in NL in 2011. They're at 29% in my average. So there isn't a big drop for the NDP there, more so for the CPC.

Also, directly inputting the EKOS results give me
152 NDP
86 Con
95 Lib
3 Bloc
1 Green
And 1 FetD - due to other polling at 5% in Quebec.
I believe the EKOS poll is underestimating the CPC, however.

EKOS underpolled the Tories by about 3% in 2008 and by a whopping 5.7% in 2011. So while, the Tories are hardly doing well in the polls, I'd wait for a poll that Hatman hasn't faked from another firm to confirm their standing.

[DC Al Fine]

So far Duceppe's leadership bump is no bigger than Paillé, who polled in the high 20's for a month or so after becoming Bloc leader. Disaster averted?

Depends on whose side you're on. A viable Bloc is good for both the Liberals and the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Apparently Trudeau wants to abolish FPTP, is that getting any play there?

So does Mulcair and May. But Liberal plan is IRV and NDP plan MMP. Trudeau actually voted against MMP earlier this year.

Ugh. IRV is worse than FPTP.

[DC Al Fine]

He was always the favourite, but yeah this ups his chances. I'm sure the Reds will find someone.

Michael Chong?

While, I would love for Chong to run, he re resigned from cabinet over a non-binding motion. Hardly indicative of leadership ambitions.

[DC Al Fine]

Did anyone notice that the Forum poll had the Conservatives up only 39-35 over the NDP in Alberta? That would be more than historic if it happened. Obviously, that's probably quite a bit closer than it should be. I'd have to imagine at least part of the NDP result in Alberta in the fall will hinge on the popularity of the provincial government. What is the general consensus with how Notley has been performing so far and what can be expected over the next couple months?

Too early to tell. She's still in her honeymoon period, although that will probably still be the case come October... Still no polls since the election.

The EKOS poll does look a lot more realistic with a 50-29 Conservative lead, but even that is quite extraordinary for the NDP by historical standards (and a historical low for the right). Just for fun, but what do these two polls look if you put them in models separately (despite that the Forum poll looks like it would break any model)?

According to my model:
Forum
Con: 22
NDP: 9
Lib: 3

The NDP all but sweeps Edmonton, but their surge isn't quite big enough to to break out from there. Instead of winning 55-60% in Edmonton and 35-40% elsewhere, they win more like 40-45% in Edmonton and 25% everywhere else.

EKOS
Con: 30
NDP: 4
Lib: 0

NDP wins the most urban bits of Edmonton, plus Lethbridge and doesn't really come close anywhere else.

[DC Al Fine]

If he has any interest getting back into politics, he would be a star recruit for the provincial Liberal Party and in many ways, his Red Toryism would be a much better fit for them than it is for the federal Conservatives, if he has any driving interest in provincial issues.

Though, coming from the Canadian Alliance wing, James Moore isn't so much a "Red Tory" as a mainstreamish Con whose "liberal" values are more of an authentically generational trait than anything.  (By comparison, Pierre Poilievre is more of an out-and-out zealot.)

I'm not sure about his economics, but according to Campaign Life Coalition, he's one of the most socially liberal Tory MP's.

[DC Al Fine]

According to my model:
Forum
Con: 22
NDP: 9
Lib: 3

The NDP all but sweeps Edmonton, but their surge isn't quite big enough to to break out from there. Instead of winning 55-60% in Edmonton and 35-40% elsewhere, they win more like 40-45% in Edmonton and 25% everywhere else.

EKOS
Con: 30
NDP: 4
Lib: 0

NDP wins the most urban bits of Edmonton, plus Lethbridge and doesn't really come close anywhere else.

What's the general order of seats for the NDP based on the models? Obviously, the first two are Edmonton Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach. Is Edmonton Centre at the top? I only ask because that is the former Liberal top target in the province. In the Forum projection, I'm assuming at least two of those Liberal seats are in Calgary, correct?

Edmonton Centre is #6 in my projection. It his historically one of the best Liberal ridings, so their improvement in Alberta will have more effect there than other places where the Liberals are non-existent and the NDP are the main progressive party.

The Liberal seats were all in Calgary. The party is toxic outside the cities. Even in their 1993 landslide, their best rural result was in the low 20's and in 2011 they polled <5% in most rural areas.

[DC Al Fine]

More Tory leadership absurdity from Den Tandt.

Agreed especially about Wall. Why give up being God-King of Saskatchewan to muck around in federal politics?

[DC Al Fine]

Do you guys think the NDP is still tainted in ON by the stench of Bob Rae ? I am way too young to remember him as premier, but have read a lot about the 'Rae Day's' and the difficult economic times and austerity of his time in office. A lot of people 45 + would certainly remember him, and probably not too well. It could cut into the NDP's claims of competence when in office.

There are probably some very minor lingering effects, but I don't think it will affect very much. He's been gone 20 years and he didn't really do anything so bad and so outrageous as to kill the party brand (e.g. NEP with the Liberals made it a lot easier for NDP surge)

[DC Al Fine]

Justin won't prop up the Tories in any circumstance. He will suffer the same fate as Nick Clegg and possibly kill the party if he lets Harper stay in #24.

Trudeau propping up Harper is something out of Mulcair's wet dreams It'd be suicide for the Liberals as Andrew said.

[DC Al Fine]

And it appears I haven't missed much since I was away. I was hoping for another major shift like at the end of June.

[DC Al Fine]

And it appears I haven't missed much since I was away. I was hoping for another major shift like at the end of June.

Welcome back!  So tell us, what's going to happen in the three Nova Scotia provincial by-elections tomorrow?

The Liberals had an extended honeymoon with massive leads, but this recently decreased with their recent austerity budget. The province's finances chronically terrible and the government mishandled cuts to film subsidies. The polls are more or less match the last election results.

Dartmouth South should be an easy Liberal hold. A no-name Liberal won it comfortably last time, and there are no local factors at play.

The more interesting races are in Cape Breton Centre and Sydney-Whitney Pier. Both seats were barely saved by the NDP, in large part due to popular incumbents who have since retired. The Liberals would normally have been expected to pick up both seats but the seats in questions are the only bastions of NDP tribalism* in Nova Scotia and the Liberals have faltered in the polls recently. Both seats are tossups.

Success for the Liberals would be gaining either or both of the Cape Breton seats. The NDP would call it a success if they hold onto both of their seats convincingly. It would be a resounding success for them if they won Dartmouth South. The Tories will call it a win if they place second in Dartmouth South

*The kind of "I vote _____ because my father and his father voted _____" loyalty that the Tories and Liberals enjoy but the NDP almost never does.

[DC Al Fine]

Ivison says there's a decent chance Harper may call the election in 3-4 weeks.

Mulcair interview.

Hmm. I'm intrigued. Does Harper not remember how long a campaign he needed to turf the Liberals? Personally, if I were to try any shenanigans, I'd call a snap election for the dead of summer and hope my turnout advantage has a larger affect now and that generic anti-Harperites stay home.

[DC Al Fine]

I stand by my prediction that there won't be a coalition, but there will be something more structured than trying to bribe another party for every major vote.

[DC Al Fine]

Ivison says his source told him the announcement got pulled once it leaked. Methinks it was the same source who said Harper could resign last winter.

Or perhaps someone needed copy to fill a lazy summer Friday.

[DC Al Fine]

In mildly amusing news: NDP fundraiser letter encourages parents to donate UCCB cheques to NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Why is this Adams character jumping ship? And why is she disliked by our resident Tories - she a showboat?

To add to what RB said, she tried jump to a safer Tory seat for 2015 and got in trouble for using her Tory bigwig boyfriend to try and get rid of her nomination opponents.

[DC Al Fine]

Mendicino wins. Congrats Grits!

Was anyone else watching this?  I couldn't believe how just plain nasty those Mendicino supporters were.  Looking down at the Adams supporters, trying to out yell them.  Loud boos when Mendicino mentioned Adams by name, he had to tell his supporters to stop booing.  Classy.  

You know what's classy? Not trying to rig a nomination before jumping parties in a desperate attempt to stay in parliament.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting Abacus analysis of millennials.

The survey noted millennials are positive about the economy. I thought that weird until I realised the oldest people in Abacus' millennial subset were 29, and would have been 22 in 2008. The bulk of the 18-29 group has only known recovery/never known the pre-2008 good times depending on your POV.

[DC Al Fine]

Harper may go to Rideau Hall Sunday, before a rally here in Montreal.

I'd be surprised if Harper could actually get a rally together in Montreal where support for the CPC is almost non-existent...but i guess they can bus in all the Tory staffers from Parliament Hill to fill out the room.

Metro Montreal has 4 million people. I'm sure they can find a few hundrend Tories there to fill a gymnasium.