Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DC Al Fine]

What are "tax integrity measures"?

Mainly, changes to the "Canadian-Controlled Private Corporation" status, which is currently used by some wealthy individuals to split revenue and pay less taxes. They say it allows to evade 500 millions from taxation. Also, more money for CRA to fight tax evasion (they say than every dollar invested to fighting tax evasion generates 4 dollars in taxes) and other measures, including passing C-621.

C-621 (An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (economic substance)). It's a bill saying than the economic substance of a transaction must be considered by the minister and the Courts to determine if that transaction is a "avoidance transaction" and creating a presumption than an "avoidance transaction" with no economic substance violates the law.

Make no sense to me, but economics/accounting isn't my field of work, probably says more to you.

1) CCPC changes are vague as hell. I can't find anything more detailed, which is annoying. This policy could range from being pretty good to really dumb depending on the specifics.

2) Money spent fighting tax evasion is good, although at some point we will run out of low hanging fruit.

3) Bill C-621 in non-accountantese: Currently it is illegal to undertake a corporate transaction primarily for tax purposes (e.g. Charging management fees from subsidiary in a low tax province to a subsidiary in a high tax province). The burden of proof in these cases is on the government. Bill C-621 broadens the scope of this provision in the Income Tax Act and shifts the burden of proof to the taxpayer. Hence my problem with it.

[DC Al Fine]

The problem with the stable government thesis is that it assumes there is at least one subordinate member. Junior coalition partners know they're... well junior. I have a harder time imagining a stable government forming so long as each progressive leader thinks he is the rightful Prime Minister, especially when winning power on their own is just a confidence vote away.

[DC Al Fine]

As an aside, am I the only one who thinks the old stock Canadians remarks wasn't Crosby's? CBC seems to think he's been given absolute authority over the Tory campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

I think this Bloc ad speaks for itself.

They're at what, 15% in the polls? At this point, what do they have to lose, by going full on FN?

EDIT: And the CBC comments about the ad are surprisingly positive

[DC Al Fine]

There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.

There was even less love or trust between Stalin and Churchill/FDR.

Yes, probably a Godwin, but the point stands.

Even your Godwin example doesn't point to a stable coalition. It took what, two years for the USA/USSR to fall out after their mutual enemy was defeated?

[DC Al Fine]

In true journalist fashion CBC completely fails at election analysis. They have a piece about "where your vote counts most in Toronto" and then proceed to talk about a bunch of close races from 2011... you know, the seats the Tories barely won that will be easy Liberal gains this time.

If they really want interesting races in Toronto, there's Eglinton-Lawrence, Ajax, and some of the Brampton ridings, which will actually be close on election day

[DC Al Fine]

Jim Pankiw is leading a fringe party called Canada Party.

IIRC they are one of the many fringe parties that emerged out of the death of Social Credit.

[DC Al Fine]

In which the Toronto Star doesn't get that the polling swings have all been within the margin of error.

Seriously, the Tories were at 30% on day one. They are at 30% now. There is no massive comeback going on.

[DC Al Fine]

Hash had some ration un-nice things to say about Harper back in the day, so the double standard is surprising.

Double standard or not, I'm glad he's enforcing it here. This is one of the best places on the internet to discuss politics. If I want juvenile name calling, I can read the comments at CBC.

[DC Al Fine]

Vosem, remember that this polling is sponsored by one of those ABC strategic voting groups, so we ought to take it with an additional grain of salt on top of the grain of salt we take normal riding polls with.

[DC Al Fine]

More riding polls:

From Maintreet Research:

Ahuntisc-Cartierville
37-34-13-13

Mount Royal
50-27-16-7

Richmond-Arthabaska
46-35-10-7

And a bunch of Forum ones.

Eglinton-Lawrence
44-38-17

Etobicoke Centre
43-42-11

Etobicoke Lakeshore
41-33-22

Scarborough Southwest
35-32-27


[Insert riding poll disclaimer here]

The Quebec polls are interesting. I didn't thought the Tories would have a chance in Richmond-Athabaska unless Bellavance was on the ballot to split the vote. Also, if Mourani pulls of a win, she'll be the new "landslide" Anne MacLellan

[DC Al Fine]

Pat Martin is such a swell guy

[DC Al Fine]

Watching the French debate with translators. My main takeaway is that the moderator let the leaders walk all over her

[DC Al Fine]

A Winnipeg area NDP candidate has resigned over comparing Orthodox Jews to the Taliban

[DC Al Fine]

More riding polls:

Mount Royal
50-27-16-7

Isn't this the most Jewish riding? I thought most Canadian Jews were Conservative?

Not quite. That honour goes to Thornhill, which is a safe Tory seat.

As for why the Tories aren't doing as well in Mount Royal as they are in Thornhill:

1) Mount Royal is mostly "secular Jews". Thornhill has a lot more Orthodox/Ultra-Orthodox.

2) The Liberals are running a prominent member of the Jewish community. The Tory candidate is also prominent and Jewish, but also used to lead a controversial Anglo rights party, which doesn't help with the decent sized francophone population.

I should note, that Quebec and especially, Montreal politics isn't really my strong suit. Rogue Beaver or one of the other central Canadians can probably give you a more detailed explanation.

[DC Al Fine]

Spent the weekend in Cape Breton, touring around. All of you should do the Cabot Trail btw if you are ever out east.

Whole place was a sea of red signs. I saw maybe thee Tory signs and a lone NDP sign the whole time I was there

[DC Al Fine]

I don't believe Abacus showing the Dippers tumbling into a 3-way race here in QC. Nanos seems more believable.

Even if the Abacus numbers were right - the NDP would still win the vast majority of seats in Quebec...with a 10 point lead over the BQ and CPC and likely a much larger than 6 point lead on the Liberals among francophones. For any other party to get into the "pay out zone" in seats in Quebec they need to get into the high 20s

This is true, although the other parties would still make some modest gains if the NDP were at 30%. Quebec City and Laval would be more in play for example, and the Bloc might actually win seats!

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos: 33/32/27.

NDP picking up some steam again? Or just a fluke?

Neither. They're down from the last Ipsos poll and Nanos, Ipsos and Abacus all have the NDP at 27%.

[DC Al Fine]

More riding polls from Forum:

Edmonton Centre
40-30-27

St. Albert-Edmonton
38-29-19-11

Ottawa West-Nepean
46-35-15

Kind of surprised at how well Rathberger is doing, although I'm guessing he'll under perform near the end.

Also, I wish someone would do riding polls of Fortin and Plamondon's ridings. Those could be some interesting races.

[DC Al Fine]

Think that OWN poll has a Grit lead, DC.

You are correct. Typo on my part. Fixed.

[DC Al Fine]

How is Inky Mark doing in Manitoba? When he announced, it didn't look like he had a chance.

No one really knows. There hasn't been any polling. I think he'll pull a respectable amount for an independent, but come nowhere near winning pr playing spoiler (say 10-15%)

[DC Al Fine]

So I've been out, what's the reason NDP has dropped in the polls?

Part of it is that their numbers in Quebec (and Ontario, somewhat) have been dropping recently.  Arguably, their very high recent numbers in Quebec were inflating their national numbers to a certain degree.

To add to what Njall said, the NDP has been on the wrong end of a wedge issue recently. Banning the niqab in citizenship ceremonies has come up recently. The NDP are opposed to this while the Bloc and Tories are for it. Quebec is the most anti-niqab region of the country, so the NDP has been bleeding support there.

[DC Al Fine]

To add to what Njall said, the NDP has been on the wrong end of a wedge issue recently. Banning the niqab in citizenship ceremonies has come up recently. The NDP are opposed to this while the Bloc and Tories are for it. Quebec is the most anti-niqab region of the country, so the NDP has been bleeding support there.

Why did they decide to be against it? It is not like if it was a hijab or chador etc. The niqab makes you a hidden non-entity and a citizenship ceremony is about confirming your new identity as a citizen.

Just PC run amok?

Strategically, the NDP was/is stuck. The Liberal base is very anti niqab ban, while the Tory and Bloc bases are pro niqab ban. The NDP has a more mixed profile with an Anglo progressive anti-ban wing, and a Francophone pro-ban wing. By staying anti-ban they opened themselves up to attacks from the Bloc and Conservatives, but if they had gone pro-ban, they would have opened themselves up to attacks from the left from the Liberals.

Personally, I think they made the correct choice strategically. The NDP can afford lost votes more in Quebec than ROC. Unless the Bloc really takes off, their decline in Quebec will cost them something like 5-6 seats. A similar decline in ROC would hurt a lot more.

[DC Al Fine]

FTR I'm anti-niqab ban.

I'm a member of a religious minority that is sometimes criticized in the same manner that Islam is. My inclination is to side with the minority in these cases unless the burden on the public at large is really large.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not so sure Mulcair would resign in that case, and personally don't think he should resign. Familiar opposition leaders tend to do better than new ones, and, especially in a minority government, having a familiar, well regarded leader is something that would benefit the NDP.

As an example, after Stephen Harper lost the 2004 election in what was seen as a big disappointment, he continued on, become PM, and now his familiarity has become a big strong point.

Harper at least gained seats in that election. If this goes on, the NDP may well fall back to high teens outside Quebec. The Liberals *will* repeat the same tactic which won the 2004 federal and 2014 Ontario elections. Tellingly, the same people who ran those two campaigns are also running this campaign.

Precampaign expectations matter of course. McLaughlin managed to lead a few polls and the NDP spent a large chunk of her leadership polling over their 1988 result. Going from that to 9% is a career killer.

By contrast, when Paul Martin became Prime Minister, the combined CA-PC vote share was around 25%. A 30% score is not so bad for Harper in this context.