Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[DC Al Fine]

Question which party would fight my views best Christian Heritage?

Yeah probably, although they're a fringe party if you have a problem with that.

[DC Al Fine]

Early Results from Newfoundland - all 5 reporting heading Liberal.

And they are wracking up rural Aberta/Manhattan type numbers.

[DC Al Fine]

St. John's needs to hurry the heck up and start releasing the only interesting result in this province

[DC Al Fine]

71.2% Liberal in the Newfoundland seats reporting so far. Is that normal?

The 2 NDP seats are not in yet. 71% is roughly in line with the 5 rural seats in my model.

Yes, the NDP seats will immediately begin to decrease the overall total, but there's a lot of talk at the moment of those seats being in danger for the NDP.

Exactly. 70%+ is a lot, but the Liberals put up 55-60% in rural Newfoundland on much shoddier overall numbers.

[DC Al Fine]

Polls close any second now in my home province.

[DC Al Fine]

So what does this mean? Early Liberal good sign?

Yes. They were expected to run up huge wins in Newfoundland but this is a bit higher than expected.

[DC Al Fine]

Grits up in Sydney-Victoria, where I'm pretty sure my Grandmother is the riding's only Tory

[DC Al Fine]

Mark Eyking (Lib) defeated the Conservatives by 40-38 in 2011. He's won the first poll in Nova Scotia with 72% of the vote.

Only one poll reporting out of over 200 though.

Also, the Tories ran a popular provincial politician last time.

[DC Al Fine]

Harris up <10% in St. John's East.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals are leading as expected in my riding (Halifax West)

Stoffer trails in Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook though

[DC Al Fine]

Halifax is Liberal, although the high Tory number suggests that the polls might be from the small old money bit of the riding, in which case the NDP would be fine. I could be wrong though.

[DC Al Fine]

I will be devastated if Peter Stoffer and Megan Leslie lose. Ugh. I feckin' hate Justin Trudeau.

Not going that far, but yeah Stoffer is my fave Dipper MP by far.

[DC Al Fine]

I will be devastated if Peter Stoffer and Megan Leslie lose. Ugh. I feckin' hate Justin Trudeau.

Not going that far, but yeah Stoffer is my fave Dipper MP by far.

You'd rather a Liberal? There's basically no difference, except these NDP candidates are known quantities and decent people.

No, I just meant I'm not using your language.

[DC Al Fine]

They might do a sweep.  When was the last time that happened.

I'd guess 1993 in the Chretien landslide.

Never. The Liberals won all but one in 1935 and 1993.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if it is fair to say that Canada is the most "elastic" of the major industrial democracies. The swings are just amazing.  Is it because Canada is less ideological than others, so personalities matter more?

For comparison, the highest Labour-Tory single seat swing here in a GE since 1945 was, I believed, about 19%.

Lol, that happens here in at least one seat most elections

[DC Al Fine]

And Fundy Royal, NB flips into the Conservative column... for now.

Rob Moore is a favourite of mine. I hope he hangs on.

EDIT: And it flipped back

[DC Al Fine]

I'm wondering with this stellar start if it's more like that the Libs could go against conventional wisdom and actually end with a majority. Thoughts?

Definitely a possibility.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals up nearly 20% in Halifax.

[DC Al Fine]

And Stoffer has lost, says CBC.

What riding is that?

Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook

[DC Al Fine]

Megan Leslie has been declared to have been defeated.

Goodbye to that particular leadership campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals lead a few rural Quebec seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Minor bright spot, Tories are doing well in Quebec.

[DC Al Fine]

Minor bright spot, Tories are doing well in Quebec.

Considering why the Tories are doing well in Quebec, that hardly seems like it would be a bright spot from your perspective.

Eh, it doesn't appear to have made much of a difference in PV. We are doing well because of the vagaries of FPTP.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know who to say is having a worse night, Harper or Mulcair.

Harper isn't down in his seat yet so...

Am I seeing 3 Conservative pickups in Quebec?

Yes, thank FPTP on your way out the door

[DC Al Fine]

Wonder how many seats in Quebec will have gone Bloc-NDP-Lib?