Alberta Progressive Conservative Leadership Election - March 18, 2017

[DC Al Fine]

So does anyone have any knowledge of how the race is shaping up?

All I hear from people here is "Kenney will win a glorious landslide" and "Progressives shall retake the party, no one wants Kenney and he will win 12%"

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks for the update

[DC Al Fine]

Kenney seems confident. Globe claims he's won 2/3 of delegates so far.

How many pc's do you think defect to the ndp if Kenney successfully merges with wildness?

I'm no expert, so Njall or RogueBeaver please correct me if I'm wrong...

If the federal conservative merger is any indicator, one or two prominent people will quit, and a similar amount will sit as independents and not run again.

Of course, the PC's only have eight MLA's now that Jansen has defected, so we could probably make educated guesses for all of them. I assume McIver and the two MLA endorsements Kenney has would stay. What about the rest?

[DC Al Fine]

Kenney's path to the hulk's bridge is basically clear. Unite Blue!

From the article: "Meanwhile, the NDP-friendly detractors of Kenney sometimes compare him to Donald Trump—though this is unfair, because Kenney doesn’t engage in demagoguery, nor is he policy-incompetent."

I agree that Kenney is policy competent, but I find him to be every bit as sleazy and every bit as much a demagogue as Trump.

[DC Al Fine]

75% of the delegates. That's a sizeable mandate for merger.

[DC Al Fine]

And so dies one of Canada's great parties. The Conservative Party of Alberta (with a wild rose as the logo, natch) rises in its place. What happens to PC Moderates? Do they pull a Jansen and cross the floor to the NDP or the hapless Liberals? Do they form their own party? Do they join the nascent Alberta Party?

My guess is many of them hold their nose and vote Tory or whatever the new party will be. The remainder will be split between NDP and one of the non-NDP/conservative parties.