SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

What the Wikipedia article doesn't tell you is that Mrs. Rosenberg left the party already in 2005 after the media (rightfully or not? No idea, I was 11.) hunted her down for those controversial comments (that may have been misreported, according to the Swedish Wikipedia article on her).

Originally, the party was supposed to be a broad feminist tent, but it collapsed quickly and Schyman was the only one left. Since then they've rebuilt into a cosmopolitan-and-postmodern-left big tent comprised of many young activists. Their rise deserves an essay, but it's partly because of the times, partly because of the Young Greens and Left failing to capture many politically engaged young and educated people in the cities and partly because of their own work rebuilding, organizing (especially on the Internet) and recruiting.

Re: The liberal feminist MEP, it was Maria Carlshamre (elected for the Liberals) who was convicted for a minor financial crime, causing the Liberals to cut ties with her. She then defected to FI, who IIRC didn't exactly embrace her but let her be until her term was up in 2009. EDIT: I misrembered, she was their no. 2 for the Riksdag in 2006, but she's not been a profile in the party since.

[Tayya]

In other news, the final counting of the votes is on-going, with more than 75% in. Two things to watch:

1. Could the Greens steal the Social Democrats' 6th mandate and make it into their 4th? It's unlikely, but possible as the postal votes of the largest regions (Stockholm, Västra Götaland incl. Gothenburg and Skåne incl. Malmö) are left uncounted. Postal votes are few in number, but tend to favor the Greens at the Social Democrats' expense.

2. Who will gain the Centre Party's mandate? Top candidate and incumbent Kent Johansson is anonymous and currently has only 11.03% of the personal votes, trailing both the no. 2 candidate Kristina Yngwe (chair of the Swedish Federation of Young Farmers) and the current leader, no. 3 on the list, Stockholm-based MP Fredrick Federley, who is aligned with the more right-wing turn of the Centre Party in contrast to the relatively traditional Kent Johansson. Federley looks likely to win, since most of Stockholm County (but not the City itself) is uncounted, but so is much of Johansson's base in rural Västra Götaland.

In 2009, two candidates got in on personal votes - Federley would be the only one in this election with most other parties having stronger top candidates and/or weaker challengers.

[Tayya]

2. Who will gain the Centre Party's mandate? Top candidate and incumbent Kent Johansson is anonymous and currently has only 11.03% of the personal votes, trailing both the no. 2 candidate Kristina Yngwe (chair of the Swedish Federation of Young Farmers) and the current leader, no. 3 on the list, Stockholm-based MP Fredrick Federley, who is aligned with the more right-wing turn of the Centre Party in contrast to the relatively traditional Kent Johansson. Federley looks likely to win, since most of Stockholm County (but not the City itself) is uncounted, but so is much of Johansson's base in rural Västra Götaland.

As you say, considering which parts are still uncounted, I think it's very unlikely that Yngwe or Johansson overtake Federley. I'll be rather satisfied as I personally do prefer him over Johansson, but I voted for Yngwe, so I'd be most happy with her. 

I admit some ignorance about the Centre Party's internal workings - what are the main differences between the three? Am I correct to cast Yngwe as slightly to the right of Johansson but to the left of Federley?

[Tayya]

I admit some ignorance about the Centre Party's internal workings - what are the main differences between the three? Am I correct to cast Yngwe as slightly to the right of Johansson but to the left of Federley?

Federley is clearly the most principled liberal of the three, which I guess would put him economically on the right of the other two, who have a more traditional centrist bent. He's also very socially progressive.

When it comes to the other two, it's mostly a difference in style and tone.
Yngwe is young and female farmer who's a strong environmentalist and who has agricultural issues as her main focus who doesn't have a long back-ground in politics. Pretty perfect combination to appeal to most of the different factions in the party.

Kent Johansson is sort of bland. Most people I've met in the party agree that he's a good politician, not just very inspiring or charismatic. He's more of a support-tropes person, rather than one to stand on the front of a political battle.   

Well, I wouldn't know if principled is the word I'd use to describe Federley with, but hopefully he's regained his conscience since 2009 and can act more like he wants to in Brussels. The whole situation is a good example of why I'm in favor of instant-runoff voting; now we have Federley at 13% of the personal votes beating Yngwe and Johansson with 11% each. I don't think most of this year's C vote was a vote for Federley's Centre but, well, a vote for the pigs' Centre.

[Tayya]

Mathematically, FI would gain 2 cabinet posts. But who would they have other than Schyman? And where?

My suggestion: Lina Thomsgård (founder of Rättviseförmedlingen, an organisation that collects suggestions for competent persons that increase minority representation) as Minister of Culture, with Schyman at Equality.

[Tayya]

Prime Minister - Stefan Löfven (S)
Leader of the Social Democrats, former Chairman of the Metalworkers' Union
   
Minister for Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)
Shadow Minister for Finance, former State Secretary and Deputy Executive of the Tax Agency
Deputy Minister for Finance and Minister for Financial Markets -  Per Bolund (MP)
Spokesperson for Financial Affairs, MP, former Stockholm Commissioner in Opposition

Minister for Foreign Affairs - Margot Wallström (S)
Former Minister for Social Affairs, former European Commissioner
Minister for Trade - Anna Johansson (S)
Gothenburg Deputy Mayor
Minister for Foreign Aid - Urban Ahlin (S)
MP, Foreign Affairs Spokesperson

Minister for Justice - Morgan Johansson (S)
MP, Former Minister for Public Health
Minister for Migration Affairs - Ardalan Shekarabi (S)
MP, former Youth League Chair

Minister for Defense - Peter Hultqvist (S)
MP, Chairman of the Defense Committee, former Executive Chair of Borlänge

Minister for Commerce - Mikael Damberg (S)
MP, Social Democratic Parliamentary Group Leader
   
Minister for Education - Gustav Fridolin (MP)
MP, Green Party Spokesperson
Minister for Schools - Ibrahim Baylan (S)
MP, Former Minister for Schools, Deputy Chairman of the Education Committee

Minister for Equality - Gudrun Schyman (FI)
Party Spokesperson, former leader of the Left Party
Minister for Democracy and Anti-Racism - Victoria Kawesa (FI)
Researcher

Minister for Rural and Regional Affairs - Matilda Ernkrans (S)
MP, Chairwoman of the Environment and Agriculture Committee

Minister for the Environment - Åsa Romson (MP)
MP, Green Party Spokesperson

Minister for Infrastructure - Carin Jämtin (S)
Party Secretary, former Minister for Foreign Aid, former Stockholm Minority Leader
Minister for Housing - Veronica Palm (S)
MP, Deputy Chairman of the Civil Affairs Committee

Minister for Social Affairs - Helene Öberg (MP)
Stockholm Region Commissioner in Opposition
Minister for Health Care and Public Health - Lena Hallengren (S)
MP, Former Deputy Minister for Education, Deputy Chairman of the Social Affairs Committee
Minister for Social Security - Gunvor G. Ericson (MP)
MP, Spokesperson for Social Security, Deputy Parliamentary Group Leader, former Södermanland Region Commissioner

Minister for Employment - Ylva Johansson (S)
MP, former Minister for Employment

Minister for Culture - Anders Wallner (MP)
Party Secretary

23 ministers, 10 men and 13 women, 15 Social Democrats, 6 Greens, 2 Feminists. 2 with foreign background, 3 LGBT.

Decided against a Feminist Minister for Culture and chickened out by making up a deputy ministry for Schyman which is useful for having more than 1 non-white cabinet member.

[Tayya]

Not a bad proposal, there are a few things I'm uncertain about though. 

I doubt SAP would agree to give the Greens that much power in the Social Affairs Ministry. I'd put Carin Jämtin on Minister of Social Affairs, and make Karin Svensson Smith Minister of Energy & Infrastructure. (That's more of the Greens' area anyway)

And I think your guess for FI on the culture portfolio was better. Having a minister of anti-racism just feels off. I can't help but to think that SD would gain every time the  title showed up on television. I'd find another post for Wallner instead. Minister of Cuteness and Good Looks or whatever.   
   

You're probably right on Social Affairs, but it's an area where the Greens have a surprisingly large bench, unlike others where it's rather thin. Jämtin at Social Affairs would work, as would Employment with Ylva Johansson moving to Social Affairs. I considered Infrastructure for the Greens but the Social Democrats might not be very happy about it, especially not with a motorway west of Stockholm for 25 billion kronor on the line.

"Anti-Racism" was perhaps not the best idea, but basically what the Centre Party did after the 2010 elections when they were in-between 3 and 4 cabinet posts - cutting off IT and Regional Affairs into Anna-Karin Hatt's cabinet post, leaving the Centre Party with one more minister but no other actual areas of influence.

[Tayya]

What exactly is the rationale for the FI party? I was under the impression that Sweden was already just about the most egalitarian country in the world when it comes to women's rights and that all the legislative battles on behalf of women's equality were won long ago. Are there ANY issues where the Social Democrats or the Greens or the Left Party are regarded as 'anti-women" (for that matter are there any issues where the even the Moderaterna are considered not to be pro-female enough?)...or is this party just a personality cult around a leader?

It's partly a personality cult insofar that it wouldn't be any higher than 0.5% without Schyman, but it's also a vehicle for formerly non-partisan radical middle class people who found the Greens too milque-toast and who the Left failed to bring along. The Left Party just got rid of a impopular leader in Lars Ohly in 2012 - he still identified as a Communist in 2005, and only stopped after he was hit on this by journalists - and then decided to focus solely on ending private profits in the welfare industries, while the Feminist Initiative charged forward on postmodern issues such as fervent opposition to the Sweden Democrats and, of course, feminism. It's not really about the party, at least not only - voting FI is making a statement.

[Tayya]

Chilling poll numbers from Demoskop today.

M - 18,5%
C - 5,3%
FP - 5,7%
KD - 4,8%

S - 29,1%
V - 8,1%
MP - 13,0%

SD - 10,0%
FI - 4,4%  

The trends from the EP election seems to show up here. The Moderates are doing terribly, C and KD sllightly gaining to above 4%. Sweden Democrats, the Greens, and Feminists are doing strong. The Social Democrats surprisingly weak.

S+MP+FI government anyone?  

This must be the biggest lead for the left during this parliament?

"Left bloc" - 54,6% (including the feminist party)

"Right bloc" - 34,3%

Sweden Democrats - 10%

No, the Alliance hit 34.2% in a May poll.

A thought struck me today: I've always been predicting that the gap between the blocs will narrow, which has also been the common wisdom. But what if that doesn't happen?

Usually, I'd laugh away these numbers - this pollster has seen more large swings from month to month than others - but never this big, and they do correlate very well with the EP results suggesting that something might be up. This is the first poll we've seen that's conducted after the EP elections. We should be seeing some web panel polls in the upcoming week (yes, I'm starting to get a hang of polling schedules, which is kind of sick) and then the most trustworthy ones by the end of the month. Hang in there and let's see what happens.

[Tayya]

I don't think you can really call the Swedish Greens 'ultra left'.

At least the Swedish Greens are clearly in the centre-left bloc. While the supposedly "ultra left" (!) Norwegian Greens are open to the idea of supporting a bourgeoisie government.

12 years ago, the Swedish Greens negotiated with the center-right to join the government. Right now, though, they've bound themselves surprisingly hard to the Social Democrats.

[Tayya]

As I had predicted, we have two new web panel polls out today.

Metro/YouGov
68% conducted before the EP elections

M: 24.8% (+2.6%)
C: 4.8% (+0.9%)
FP: 5.1% (-1.1%)
KD: 5.0% (+0.9%)

S: 31.2% (-2.1%)
V: 8.5% (-0.2%)
MP: 8.3% (+1.4%)

SD: 8.2% (-2.4%)
FI: 3.6% (+1%)
Others: 0.6% (-1%)

M+C+FP+KD: 39.7% (+3.3%)
S+V+MP: 48.0% (-0.9%)

Aftonbladet/United Minds
50% conducted before the EP elections

M: 19.7% (-1.9%)
C: 3.5% (+0.2%)
FP: 5.8% (-0.3%)
KD: 4.9% (+1.7%)

S: 30.8% (-3.8%)
V: 9.5% (+0.6%)
MP: 11.2% (+2.7%)

SD: 11.3% (+0.6%)
FI: 2.1% (no change)
Others: 1.1% (+0.2%)

M+C+FP+KD: 33.9% (+0.3%)
S+V+MP: 51.6% (-0.4%)

Both agree on S dropping, but United Minds seems to confirm more trends from the Demoskop poll while YouGov goes its own way. Still, that M below 20% wasn't unique will probably cause headaches for the party, as will the Social Democrats remaining at 2010 levels.

[Tayya]

Sifo's June Poll is out. Which is the first good poll done mostly after the EP election. (I do not personally view either YouGov or United Minds as good)

S: 29,4% (-1,5%)
V: 6,4% (-0,9%)
MP: 13,0% (+2,7)

M: 21,1% (-2,0%)
C: 5,5% (+0,5%)
FP: 6,8% (-0,2%)
KD: 3,5% (+/-)

SD: 9,0 (+0,2%)
FI: 3,4% (+0,5%)


I think looking at this poll, and the polls Tayya posted, and the EP election results we can make a few conclusions:

1)The dynamic between the parties on the left is changing.
2) The Moderates are in big BIG trouble.
3) The Centre Party has (at least for now) stopped its bleeding, and is slowly recovering.
4) The Sweden Democrats will do a very good election and I will have to suffer my bobo friends anti-racist rants in social media for months.
 

5) FI looks set to gain over 2.5% which means that they will have loads and loads of cash for 2018.
6) Stefan Löfven might be regretting taking the party leader gig, soon if not now.

Does Demoskop count as an OK poll? The trends show up here as well, but to a lesser extent - Demoskop is swingier and was conducted closer to the EP elections, so they might only be temporary.

[Tayya]

Indeed. I was surprised that most pollsters didn't underestimate SD as much as I thought they did - the web polls overestimated them, though - which will hopefully lessen the bobo freakout a bit, since they won't be as surprised (we'll see how much the exit polls differ with the bigger electorate).

What I'm definitely not looking forward to is Fi getting 4.5% in the exit poll and trickling down below 4% in the end.

[Tayya]

V: 72%
S: 71%
Fi: 71%
MP: 63%
FP: 62%
PP: 56%
SD: 47%
KD: 47%
C: 39%
M: 38%

Generic leftist with some conservative tendencies.

[Tayya]

Not that this would be news to any of our Swedish posters, but I just discovered the great tradition of Almedalen!

http://m.aljazeera.com/story/20147182122143113

Yet another reason to love Sweden!

Unfortunately, a lot of the politicians' precious time is awarded to/taken by lobbyists.

Yes, I'm just bitter at not being there.

[Tayya]

Yes, I'm just bitter at not being there.

Maybe next summer we should arrange a Swedish Atlas meet-up during Almedalen.

I'm all ears, though apparantly we'd have to book a room around last year. I haven't looked into it much, though.

[Tayya]

POLL ALERT: Aftonbladet/United Minds (web-based) showing a gleam of hope for the incumbents.

S: 28.0% (-2.8%)
V: 7.5% (-2.0%)
MP: 11.9% (+0.7%)

M: 22.8% (+3.1%)
C: 4.8% (+1.3%)
FP: 5.0% (-0.8%)
KD: 4.4% (-0.5%)

SD: 10.5% (-0.8%)
Fi: 4.0% (+1.9%)

Others: 1.2% (+0.1%)

M+C+FP+KD: 37.0 (+3.1%)
S+V+MP: 47.4% (-4.2%)
S+V+MP+Fi: 51.4% (-2.3%)

While the changes are rather large, the last poll was something of an outlier as well. We can compare these results to a poll index conducted for public radio two days ago, before this poll:


S: 30.8% (-2.8%)
V: 6.9% (+0.6%)
MP: 12.0% (-0.1%)

M: 21.1% (+1.7%)
C: 5.5% (-0.7%)
FP: 6.6% (-1.6%)
KD: 3.7% (+0.7%)

SD: 9.0% (+1.5%)
Fi: 3.3% (+0.7%)

Others: 1.1% (+0.1%)

M+C+FP+KD: 34.9 (+2.1%)
S+V+MP: 49.7% (-2.3%)
S+V+MP+Fi: 53.0% (-1.6%)

There's still a change, but the new numbers are closer to the average than the very tabloidic tabloid Aftonladet presents them as. We'll see if it's a real change, if it's the holidays messing up polling, if it's the EP elections fading from voters' memories or if it's just an outlier.

[Tayya]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

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This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

Indeed. The Left Party will surely be heading for double digits with a red-green (rather than red-red-green) government*, despite the rise of a Fi that might have better chances at catching disgruntled MP voters than V.

Of note is that the Demoskop poll has an error committed by the newspaper - the Feminist Initiative's score should be a decrease, as they got over 4% in the last Demoskop poll.

*We need snazzier names for government alternatives, German style. I'm trademarking "Gambia coalition" for S-MP-FP.

[Tayya]

Eh, S+M would be Grand, of course.

Of course, I'm still holding out for a S+Junilistan+SD+MP+M+Pirates Pride coalition.

[Tayya]

It's interesting to speculate what will happen with the Moderates after the election. Fredrik Reinfeldts days an leader seemes to have come to an end, and after the catastrophic election to the EU-parliament, I can't see him as Chairman of the party after the national elections if they lose.

Let's also pretend that the Christian Democrats ends up below four percent and the new left-wing government start flirting with the Center Party and the Peoples Party. That would leave the Moderates without anyone to cooperate with. What we have to remember is that the current leadership of the party is the liberal wing. However, the Moderates holds conservative forces as well and when the liberal wing is failing, the party may give the conservative and more traditional wing a chance.

My conclusion to this is that we in a couple of years will see a more conservative orientated party that may stay nearer the Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats when it comes to the immigration issues and the family values.

What do you think? Is this a possible scenario?

No, I don't really think so. Which of Reinfeldt's possible successors would push that line?

Anders Borg has been everywhere in the party's ideological spectrum except socially conservative. Ulf Kristersson was the liberal/neoliberal candidate against conservative (yes, really) Reinfeldt in the Youth League, and Anna Kinberg Batra was IIRC a Kristersson protégé. Tomas Tobé is gay and would stay away from KD's social policies. Hillevi Engström pushes for more equal parental leave. Gunilla Carlsson isn't someone I can see as a contender since she retired from the cabinet. Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd is to me somewhat of a blank slate, but I can't see her as an actual conservative. Carl Bildt? Seriously? His wife is too old, as is Lena Adelsohn Liljeroth, as is Gunnar Hökmark, who is also tainted by the EP elections. The current Youth League generation are too young. Maria Abrahamsson would put her foot in her mouth too often. Peter Norman is too non-partisan. Beatrice Ask? LOL.

The only alternatives from some kind of conservative wing would be an outsider, perhaps former Youth League chairman and Reinfeldt chief of staff Johan Forssell - who would be a very long shot - or Tobias Billström. But the Moderates can't be that stupid, can they?

For the record, Reinfeldt himself is conservative. He's just not *that* kind of conservative.

[Tayya]

The only Swedish party which is clearly moving closer to SD is the Social Democrats. Their strategy on that is pretty obvious.

Our social democrats attemped same, but people recognize fake and vote for real stuff.
If you watch EP results, SD did well in eternal red (Middle Sweden), thus they are worrying.

That does indeed tend to happen, but it remains to see if Sweden will follow the European trend. Unlike for example Denmark, the party system as a whole is definitely not gravitating towards stricter immigration policy.

@Swedish Cheese: Dang, I thought I had name-dropped all possible Moderate candidates. I forgot at least one. (And a big bunch of back-benchers, of course!)

[Tayya]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Also: Anything interesting being debated right now in the campaign ?

The Almedalen Week (when all politicians, lobbyists and activists gather on Gotland to mingle) has just ended. The most notable result of that was the government presenting a relatively massive infrastructure project, including high-speed rail on the Stockholm-Gothenburg and Stockholm-Malmö lines, for 400 billion SEK (~60 billion dollars), financed through raised taxes on commercial buildings as well as "we'll find something along the way".

It's not a horrible project, but it's a flip-flop on high-speed trains (called "science fiction" by the Minister of Finance) and somewhat undermines one of the government's talking points on financing all their proposals.

The impact of these hasn't really been visible in polling yet, but it might have been the government's very final chance. If the poll numbers still show a >10% gap in August, it's game over, absent a game changer during the election campaign.

[Tayya]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Not unless Stefan Löfvén is all of a sudden revealed to be Frank Underwood.

For the right it's really a battle of minimizing loses and keep as much ground as possible to be able to fight the fight next time, possibly be able to deny the centre-left a majority and be able to keep power in at least one or two regions, and more than a handful of super safe local councils.

I still think the government crawling up to 40-42% with Mushrooms around 46-48% is the most likely, but I'm not as certain as I used to be, since the Alliance parties campaigns have been wholeheartedly uninspiring so far. The only ones who're actually doing decently are us, Centre party, surprisingly to all. I'm not even sure the Moderates have a campaign, and considering their EP campaign, I'm not actually sure that's a bad thing...

In the end I think a lot will come down to FI, and if they manage to come in, and if the other three lefties manage to stay out of saying anything stupid.   

Well, how can you go wrong with five-time Eurovision contestant (as a song writer) Fredrik Kempe on board?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_UVM1OEwmE

I assume that the government collects over 40% in the end - anything else would be an utter embarrassment.

[Tayya]

POLL ALERT! POLL ALERT!

Welcome back from the literal summer drought, everyone! Today, TV4 and Novus has released their July poll (conducted between July 7 and August 3):

Moderates: 22.4% (+1.2%)
Liberals: 6.1% (-0.7%)
Centre: 5.8% (+0.2%)
Christian Democrats: 4.2% (-0.2%)

Government: 38.5% (+0.5%)

Social Democrats: 31.8% (-0.3%)
Left: 7.3% (+0.6%)
Greens: 9.9% (-1.4%)

Red-Green Opposition: 49.0% (-1.1%)

Sweden Democrats: 8.8% (+0.5%)
Feminist Initiative: 2.6% (-0.3%)
Others: 1.1% (+0.4%)

All changes are within the margin of error - the only thing of note is that the Moderates appear to have regained some Green voters lost after the EP elections, which makes sense after a calm and hot summer month.

News here is currently dominated by a large forest fire raging in Västmanland County. The Greens have gotten flak for announcing support for more resources to domestic rescue operations while the fire is still raging, though headlines about inadequate crisis managemant capabilities won't exactly help the government. Sweden's likely next Prime Minister Stefan Löfven also got some flak for travelling to the area when he's powerless to actually do anything, but with PM Reinfeldt staying away I wager he still comes of from the whole ordeal as the winner. and Reinfeldt is going there today. Generally, the right-wing blames the left for playing politics with the fire while trying to be subtle about playing politics with the fire.

A possible X-factor is that the firefighting is said to take up to a month, so theoretically the fire could still be raging on Election Day.

[Tayya]

A big forest fire in ... Sweden ?

So, the next big campaign issue will probably be climate change ...

PS: It's never good for a PM to stay away from a disaster area 1 month before an election.

Climate change would be a reasonable subject, especially considering this summer's weather (very hot, but also much rain and thunder with several mini-floodings in Stockholm) but it depends on if the fire stabilizes in time for the subject to come up. The major party politicians will want to discuss the economy, of course. (For the record, this is an outlier that could be perfectly explainable without climate change, but I assume the Greens will want to discuss climate if nothing else)

See the edit: he literally announced a trip while I was writing.