The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

Amazing!

that's terrifying news for The Donald - prior to this election Texas was noted for terrible voter turnout.

Great news!

Harris county turnout and margins are key towards making this a close statewide race. I've been predicting a +10-15 Clinton margin in Harris for awhile, and with this level of turnout so far, it's not looking good for Da Donald down in Tejas.

That CBS News poll yesterday must have got around Texas political circles FAST! Maybe lots of infrequent or non voters with Dem sympathies believe their vote matters in a three point race

[dspNY]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

Are you dense or something? It's all relative. That's like saying IA is solid D because they're ahead in raw early vote, even though they're underperforming 2012.

I was led to believe that this was an improvement from 2012.

That Florida number includes all of the in-person early voting which leans Dem. Right now the vote by mail is virtually even when you account for ballot requests in addition to ballots cast

[dspNY]

Georgia early vote demographics, 10/24

White: 61.3%
African-American: 28.9%
Hispanic: 1.0%
Other: 1.8%
Unknown: 6.9%

African-American numbers improved a little due to a Souls to the Polls push

[dspNY]

Wisconsin absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Dane and Milwaukee Counties have returned 73,233 of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin, for 29.4% of the statewide total. These two counties contributed to 26% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the two big Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have returned 30,953 ballots, 12.4% of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin. These three counties contributed to 12.3% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the three big GOP counties.

Dem big counties up 3.3%, GOP essentially flat

[dspNY]

Colorado mail ballot stats, 10/24

DEM: 48,167 (42.2%)
GOP: 36,825 (32.3%)
IND: 24,744 (24.1%)
Other: 1,676 (1.5%)

[dspNY]

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Dallas County went for Obama by 15-16 points even though he lost Texas by 11 and 16 points in his two campaigns

[dspNY]

Texas could be a sleeper state this year. As I read in a previous analysis, HRC doesn't need to flip any more Texas counties as much as she needs to make the current ones more D, and this is a tell tale sign of it.

She needs to flip Fort Bend (Sugar Land, west of Metro Houston), Tarrant (Fort Worth), Williamson (Round Rock, Georgetown), and Nueces while running up her margins in the big Texas metros (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin)

[dspNY]

Yes, first time voters regardless if they registered D or R 20 or more years ago is a strong PLUS for Trump. These people who didn't turn out for Obama are def. the ones who are interested in voting for the first time ever for Hillary. I'll say it again regardless of which party they registered with 20+ years ago, if first time voters is up, that is a good thing for Trump, just as we saw during the primaries.

That's not what the early vote polling questions out of the NC, AZ and NBC/WSJ poll are saying

In NC, PPP found that Clinton is winning the early vote 63/37
In AZ, Monmouth found that Clinton has a 10 point lead in ballots already cast
In the NBC/WSJ poll, the Obama approval rating for voters who cast a ballot early was in the mid-60s

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/25

Ballots requested:

DEM: 211,222
GOP: 168,766
IND: 105,952
Other: 1,420

Ballots cast:

DEM: 144,690
GOP: 103,595
IND: 61,880
Other: 842

Dems now ahead by 42.5K in ballot requests and 41K in votes cast. If that lead stretches back to 50K I think Iowa stays blue

[dspNY]

Yeah the doom and gloom seems to be lifting in Iowa, much as it did in Maine.

Mook and company planned their absentee ballot push a bit later this time

[dspNY]

So the conventional wisdom seemed to be that early vote was good for Trump in IA and OH, and great for Clinton everywhere else. Now it seems the reasoning on Ohio is conflicted depending on who you talk to, and the Iowa advantage is slipping away.

HRC added a Des Moines rally to her Friday Iowa visit, originally supposed to be one stop in Cedar Rapids

[dspNY]

Wisconsin early vote stats 10/25

289,253 ballots have been cast.

Heavily Democratic Dane and Milwaukee Counties have cast 84,406 votes (29.2% of the overall vote). They were 26% of the state vote in 2012.

Heavily Republican Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have cast 13.7% of the overall vote. They were 12.3% of the state vote in 2012. So Republicans have picked it up a little here. Waukesha had a big dump of votes.

The Dem counties are overperforming by 3.2% and the GOP counties are overperforming by 1.4%

[dspNY]

Finally, some Arizona VBM party ID stats:

GOP: 235,565 (38.2%)
DEM: 229,053 (37.1%)
IND: 143,834 (23.3%)
Other: 8,431 (1.4%)

The registered voter base in AZ by party ID is 35R/34I/30D. So Dems are outdoing their registration numbers by 7 points, Republicans are outdoing their registration numbers by 3 points, and independents are lagging their voter registration by 11 points. Apparently in this early voting electorate, Monmouth found a Clinton +10

[dspNY]

Finally, some Arizona VBM party ID stats:

GOP: 235,565 (38.2%)
DEM: 229,053 (37.1%)
IND: 143,834 (23.3%)
Other: 8,431 (1.4%)

The registered voter base in AZ by party ID is 35R/34I/30D. So Dems are outdoing their registration numbers by 7 points, Republicans are outdoing their registration numbers by 3 points, and independents are lagging their voter registration by 11 points. Apparently in this early voting electorate, Monmouth found a Clinton +10

Do we know what EV looked like at that point in 2012?

No we do not. That being said, I remember Arizona's first returns being the mail ballots and Romney was up 14, and then they called the state pretty soon after

[dspNY]

For some basic Arizona information, go to about 3:25 on this Youtube video from 2012. You see the majority of the mail ballots counted. Romney led by a 56-42 margin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUOfdyg_hz8

[dspNY]

I feel like the general consensus is that Clinton is now slightly favored in Arizona anyway, yes?

I'm not sure. As I say, certainly these early voting numbers are quite encouraging and the polling has been decently so, but only Sabato and 538 of the 9 projectors in the NYT Upshot collection have it lean D.

I think it is a total tossup. Remember Clinton has to reverse a 9 point gap from 2012

[dspNY]

Colorado Update


Dems continue to beat the HOLY HELL out of Rethuglicans in early ballot returns

Democrats are up 23,000 ballots. At this point in 2014, Rethuglicans were up by 27,000 ballots. Turnout spiking in Pueblo and Denver counties.

15 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  117,766 (64,777)
Republicans  94,499 (91,060)
Independent 70,410 (46,404)

TOTAL 286,639 (204,480)

Total turnout up 40%

This is a shade over 11% of the overall 2012 vote

[dspNY]

Dave Wasserman (https://twitter.com/Redistrict) tweets:

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and

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Also:

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Wow!

These numbers are not a good early indicator for Republicans in Texas...

80% of the population of the Great State of Texas lives in a handful of urban Metro areas, and generally counties with high population growth, and the Travis and El Paso county numbers indicate an early surge of Latino voters in heavily populated counties.

Additionally Williamson (Round Rock) is basically an Upper-Middle-Class community North of Austin where there is a significant tech sector, exactly the type of college educated Anglos that are abandoning the top of the ticket in droves, so I suspect this is actually positive news for the Dems and as I have stated elsewhere, this county might be one of the surprise Texas county flips come November.

Even the "lowest turnout" of the Metro counties is not necessarily bad news for Dems. Montgomery County is typically a +55-60 Republican County, where I suspect higher turnout will result in significantly lower total Republican vote margins than previously, as well as places like Denton, Tarrant, and Fort Bend where increased turnout will also likely favor Democrats because of the proportion of non-voters combined with college educated Anglos will similarly cause a net reduction of total Republican total vote margins in these counties.

If Williamson County, which is a few points right of the state, ever flipped to Clinton, she would likely win Texas

[dspNY]

Florida is crushing it

 Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 3m3 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Dems also win GOP-leaning Volusia County (Daytona) on day 2, by roughly same narrow margin as day 1.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 7m7 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Day 2 of Orange County (Orlando) outpaced Day 1. Dems crush it again there, win 50-28%.

The only way that happens is with very heavy Hispanic turnout which seems to be the story which will persist through Election Day

[dspNY]

For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

And on Election Day, Clinton will find the less frequent Dem voters who haven't voted yet with her GOTV apparatus

[dspNY]

Possible Dem improvement in Ohio?

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/791235054374625280

Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties now total 20% of the statewide vote. In 2012, they made up 21.8% and Obama won by 3

[dspNY]

So far there seems to be a large disparity between female and male voters,   is this normal in early voting?   Or is Trump causing a female voter surge?

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/new-data-reveals-early-voting-trends-in-key-swing-states/


WI:
Gender: 57.3% Female // 41.7% Male

NC:
Gender: 56.1% F // 43.8% M

FL:
Gender: 56% F // 43.9% M

IA:
Gender: 56.9% F // 43.0% M

GA:
Gender: 56.7% F // 43.2% M

ME:
Gender: 56.1% F // 43.2% M

The only state not to show this trend is CO, which was almost exactly even.    

Usually the vote in any state is around a 53-47 split so to see 56-57% female is a bit unusual

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 10/26

DEM: 219,284
GOP: 174,991
IND: 111,484
Other: 1,520

Ballots cast:

DEM: 156,535
GOP: 115,699
IND: 69,222
Other: 942

Dems now 44.3K ahead in ballot requests, up about 2K from yesterday but slip about 200 in votes cast to a 40.8K lead

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

[dspNY]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself