absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[dspNY]

Good God almighty

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794755970463207424

[dspNY]

How is hispanic turnout in Colorado? If it is anything like Florida and Nevada = Gone.

Neither campaign is going back to Colorado in the final days so it looks like the state is ceded to Clinton

Edit: Trump going to Colorado tomorrow. He's wasting his time there, I think, if Nevada is any indication of what's going on

[dspNY]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

Obama won the election day vote in NV in 2012 narrowly

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2666

[dspNY]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

Deep down in your heart you know he is wasting his time in NV and CO, and I think he knows it too

[dspNY]

More Floridians will vote early in 2016 than by mail. Many in GOP circles thought the opposite would happen

[dspNY]

Republicans up 17 among whites! And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

That's a terrible number for Florida (the state they were referring to. Romney won Florida whites by 24

[dspNY]

R+7 got the Repubs Cory Gardner by a narrow margin and a gov race loss. Even party ID is a comfortable Clinton win there

[dspNY]

Duval County (FL) as we speak:

GOP: 114,461
DEM: 114,351
IND: 43,510

Dems could take the lead in Duval before the polls close at 6 PM Eastern. That would be pretty astonishing because Duval is a lean GOP county

[dspNY]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

[dspNY]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

Wowza. That's amazing.

I just had to make fun of the "African-Americans are not voting narrative." They weren't voting as much early but are making the charge late

[dspNY]

While the Nevada numbers are obviously strong, we shouldn't assume that it will necessarily lead to the same result as 2012. Independents (yes, I am talking about registered independents) may swing to Trump at a high rate in this state, especially white independents. Because of the diversity of the state, and the registration numbers, this state is pretty safe for Clinton, but don't be surprised if it's within 3-4 points on election day, not a 7-8 point blowout.

This I could see in a worst-case scenario

[dspNY]

Interesting stats out of Georgia:

White: 59.9%
African-American: 27.8%
Hispanic: 1.5%
Other: 2.2%
Unknown: 8.7%

Who are the "unknown" demographically in Georgia? The known white vote is now a tick under 60%

[dspNY]

DUUUVAL

DEM: 114,778
GOP: 114,774
IND: 43,705

They might still be counting but the polls have closed there. I think anyone still in line there has to be allowed to vote today

[dspNY]

Hillsborough County:

DEM: 165,329
GOP: 140,599
NPA: 87,155

Dems have opened up close to a 25K vote lead there and added about 2600 to their margin. Hillsborough is at 72.3% of its 2012 turnout.

Pinellas County:

GOP: 116,087
DEM: 115,244
NPA: 67,992

Dems have narrowed the GOP advantage to about 850. Pinellas is at 65.2% of its 2012 turnout.

Broward County:

Almost 36K voted in Broward today. Dems added 14.6K to their margin. Broward has hit 74.3% of its overall 2012 turnout.

Lee County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1377

Collier County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1142

[dspNY]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

That's actually really unusual. Normally the GOP split is about 52/48 male/female and the Dem split is around 58/42 female/male. That's how you get a 52/48 or 53/47 female/male electorate

[dspNY]

Orange County (FL) just came in:

22,146 voters cast ballots early.

DEM: 10,003
GOP: 5,673
NPA: 5,983

That's a great result for us. Dem advantage expands by 4000 and NPA's outvoted the GOP.

Also, NV GOP chair claiming "voter fraud" because of big Dem turnout in Vegas Friday night is the clearest indicator they are in a terrible position in Nevada and they're going to lose the state, along with Heck, Hardy and Tarkanian

[dspNY]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

[dspNY]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

Most of the state finished today. These are the counties with EV tomorrow:

Bay (GOP)
Bradford (GOP)
Broward (Dem)
Charlotte (GOP)
Duval (lean GOP)
Hillsborough (swing, tilt Dem)
Leon (Dem)
Miami-Dade (Dem)
Orange (Dem)
Osceola (Dem)
Palm Beach (Dem)
Pinellas (swing, tilt Dem)
Polk (lean GOP)
Seminole (lean GOP)
Suwannee (GOP)

Based on the counties that are voting tomorrow, Dems will expand their slim lead substantially

[dspNY]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

That's outstanding - especially because I expect Hillary to get 63-65% of the vote there.

Miami-Dade is going to swing hard against Trump so big voting out of there is good for us. 40,051 voted early and another 10,245 cast ballots by mail.

[dspNY]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The end is near for Trump.

It does not look THAT bad for Trump. Or?

It is bad for him. The electorate is more diverse than 2012

[dspNY]

Chuck Todd: Lots of very nervous Republicans in Florida due to Hispanic voter surge, on Sunday TODAY. Think Trump will come up short there

http://www.today.com/video/florida-is-a-checkmate-state-for-hillary-clinton-says-chuck-todd-802142787806

[dspNY]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

The estimate is that 50K Dixiecrats who switched registration to GOP have early voted

[dspNY]

And that leads to another big question of this election: how many dixiecrats switched? That could affect the D margin required as much as the makeup of UFA could. (Of course, it could also affect nothing at all)

Actually, one could see this in NC statistics 12' vs 16'. Probably someone did it?

The estimate is that 50K Dixiecrats who switched registration to GOP have early voted

Link?

Go to Steve Schale's twitter

[dspNY]

As of 11:00 AM, 13,149 voters in Broward County have voted. We could be headed for a massive Sunday there

[dspNY]

Broward on pace for a 40K turnout. As of 1:00 PM, 20,241 voters have cast ballots early in Broward