LibDem leadership election

[Democratic Hawk]

And meanwhile, the rats leave the sinking ship. Is it wise to seek to dethrone the most successful Liberal leader in 80 years?

I have no love for Margaret Thatcher but the Tories', ultimately, paid the price for dumping the woman who was their most electorally successful of leader of the c.20th

Time for those Labour voters who went LibDem in 2005 to come home me thinks

While I'm on the subject, are these wretched souls set to quit the party if Kennedy stays or just their front bench posts?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

And meanwhile, the rats leave the sinking ship. Is it wise to seek to dethrone the most successful Liberal leader in 80 years?

This is one of the great misnomers of this entire debate. He's not the most successful leader by any quantitative or qualitative standard.

Seats like Oxford East, NUT Central, Guildford, Orpington, Hornsey and Wood Green, Durham, Edinburgh North, and so many more should have swung Lib Dem if they were to make the move.

The party didn't exactly lose any net ground under Kennedy did it? Isn't the the party now at its strongest parliamentary strength in 80 years? Answers to both: Yes

As for Durham going Lib Dem? Not if the 'Hawk' had anything to do with it. Tuition fees and Iraq were big issues in the City but not in the District and it's the District rather than City that has defined Durham's politics. I always knew Labour would hold it but with a substantially reduced majority. The Conservative candidate, Ben Rogers, was a nice guy who really didn't deserve to see his vote squeezed

They will continue to be a relatively strong third party

Nevertheless, Peter thanks for enlightening me on the party's electoral history

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Cambell has confirmed that he'll be standing

He's probably the "safe pair of hands" candidate

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Is Hemming's definately running? He's an ugly git. How he's managed to have 26 affairs beggers belief.

Yes, it would be nice to see the Liberal Democrats reduced to 11 seats. When I fed the Mail On Sunday data Lab 38%, Con 38% and LD 16% into the electoral calculus they were reduced to 6

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

In The Mirror - my family's favoured tabloid - it reports that yesterday on Radio 4's Today programme that the Lib Dems main donor businessman Michael Brown, who funded them to the tune of £2.4 million last year, is so appalled at the treatment of Kennedy, he's 99.99% certain he won't be donating again

A principled man

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Huhne is now openly considering running

Who?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Actually, its quite naive of him. If he cannot recognise that Kennedy had to go, and that politics is often messy and vicious, then he shouldn't be bankrolling parties in the first place.

It's their loss, it doesn't worry me. I think Kennedy's been treated appallingly

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Basically, the polls have Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, but I for one think it's the Conservatives who well fair better nationally than Labour in the locals. Don't read too much into that though. The Conservatives outperformed Labour in the Euro elections before 2001 and in locals and the Euros before 2004

The Sun [24/2/06] had details of a MORI Ipsos poll of 1,958 adults conducted from February 16-20 has:

Labour 38% (no change) - among all voters 41%
Conservatives 35% (down 5) - amonmg all voters 33%
Lib Dems 20% (up 3) - among all voters 20%
Others 7% (up 2) - among all voters 6%

The Conservatives are in third place amongvoters in the 18-34 age group

On job performance, 31% are satisfied with Blair but 60% are dissatisfied. Cameron has a net satisfaction rating of 15% and Brown 11%; among Labour voters Brown has a 57% approval rating compared with 23% for Blair

http://www.mori.com/polls/2006/mpm060220.shtml

In the News of the World an ICM poll of 1025 adults conducted from February 23-25 has:

Brown leads Cameron as best man for the PM's job by 45% to 33%; is more in touch with the issues that matter most to people like you (39% to 32%); is more trustworthy (39% to 28%), is more likely to be able to manage a limited family budget (48% to 25%) and makes the best dad (35% to 33%)

Cameron is less arrogant (28% to 46%), more preferable to have a drink with (34% to 33%), less likely to try and avoid buying a round of drinks (21% to 54%) and looks more presentable (61% to 22%)

In a nutshell, Brown leads on capability and Camerin leads on likeablity

Dave