Australian Election Results Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

When does counting resume?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

They've already resumed.

Well, ABC, which has been my primary source, doesn't seem to have updated its live results since 1.01AM

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Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Is it me or do some of these so-called 'Liberals' actually verge on being psychotically right-wing? A right nutjob seems to have just been elected in Mitchell, NSW

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not surprised with the results from the election. I had a gut feeling that the ALP led by Kruddmeister would win and they did. The Liberal Party, which will be led by Peter Costello has a lot of ground to cover if they're to win in 2010. I highly doubt they will win, so 2013 or 2016 is a realistic chance for them to win back the Lodge.

I'm afraid not. Peter Costello won't be leading the Liberal Party anywhere. He has announced:

"He will not seek not will I accept the leadership or deputy leadership of the Liberal Party"

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=305478

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

By the way, does anyone think that sometime in the future the ALP and Greens might end up in a coalition similar to the Liberal/National coalition? Not immediately, obviously, just eventually.

Possibly, should the Greens ever secure significant representation in the House. Are there any divisions in which the Greens have a realistic shot at beating Labor in first preferences?

It's logical for Green voters to cast 2nd preferences for Labor, but would Labor supporters really want to see Labor step aside to give the Green candidate a clear run against the Liberals?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, ABC, which has been my primary source, doesn't seem to have updated its live results since 1.01AM

If I am to go by the past form, ABC election-night website doesn't get updated beyond the election night. Look at tha AEC webpage.

Thanks

[Democratic Hawk]

Looks like when all the votes will be tallied the Greens will come second in Melbourne. What this means for the 2PP I cannae claim to know.

Their first second-place finish. Quite a moment for the party, I think, though obviously the ALP wins the seat easily (they have 50.8% in first-preferences).

Interestingly, ABC has the Greens leading the Libs by two votes but still has the TPP as ALP-Lib.

Should the Greens finish 2nd to Labor will the Liberal votes then have to be reallocated?. Seems a bit daft reallocating before all primary votes are counted

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

So, the seven closest seats, according to AEC now have the following margins:

Swan WA ALP advantage of 17 votes
Bowman QLD LIB advantage of 27 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 316 votes
Dickson QLD ALP advantage 344 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 445 votes
McEwen VIC LIB advantage 506 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage 608 votes

Well, it's gonna be exciting for a while yet in some districts. I must say I like the Aussie system

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Probably a daft question but is the indigenous Aboriginal vote monolithically Labor?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Ha, the UK would fit into Kalgoorlie (80,773 voters) 9.38 times . Canny bit of red on the map were it Labor

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the difference between FORMAL and INFORMAL votes?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

One thing to note, while the sitting members are getting 60/40 - 70/30 splits on the pre-poll and postal votes. The only incument seat where it's close is.... Bennelong, where the split is in favour of Howard 51/49.

I notice only Gladesville West has swung in his favor on two-party preferences. Must have kissed a few more babies down that way

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Formal votes are votes that have been correctly cast - all boxes numbered correctly - Informal votes are those that have been cast incorrectly and will not be counted.

Ah, what we call 'spoilt' ballots

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

It seems that the remaining 7 non-reporting booths in Melbourne are "Special Hospital Team" 1-7. Anyone know how those voted in 2004? Melbourne is interesting because the Greens are currently a whole two votes ahead of the Liberals for second.

Seemingly, the Liberals are now 2 votes ahead of the Greens. It's a bit of a shuggy boat this one

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

It seems that the remaining 7 non-reporting booths in Melbourne are "Special Hospital Team" 1-7. Anyone know how those voted in 2004? Melbourne is interesting because the Greens are currently a whole two votes ahead of the Liberals for second.

Here:

1: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4650.htm

Primary: ALP 14; Lib 12; Dem 1; Green 4 / TPP: ALP 16; Lib 15

2: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4651.htm

Primary: ALP 25; Lib 14; Dem 1; Green 3 / TPP: ALP 27; Lib 16

3: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4652.htm

Primary: ALP 15; Lib 10; Green 1 / TPP: ALP 15; Lib 11

4: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4653.htm

Primary: ALP 64; SA 1; Lib 60; Dem 1; Green 4 / TPP: ALP 69 / Lib 62

5: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31964.htm

Primary: ALP 49; Lib 25; Dem 2; Green 5; Ind 2; FF 2; CEC 1 / TPP: ALP 56 / Lib 30

6: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31965.htm

Primary: ALP 9; Lib 1; Green 3; FF 1 / TPP: ALP 13 / Lib 1

7: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31966.htm

Primary: ALP 24; SA 1; Lib 7; Green 1; FF 1 / TPP: ALP 26; Lib 8

Basically, on 2004, SpHT 1 to 7 not collectively encouraging, for the Greens but given the swing against the Liberals, they should do better. Doubt if it's anywhere near enough, however

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Here's the link to the 2004 Results:

http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/default.htm

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Robertson, NSW and McEwen, VIC are no longer considered close with ALP ahead by 928 (50.62%) and Liberals ahead by 862 (50.52%), respectively

Nine seats remain with a swing of 0.5%:

Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 21
Herbert, QLD: ALP ahead by 108
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 153
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 268
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 428
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590
Macarthur, NSW: LIB ahead by 598
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 730
Corangamite, VIC: ALP ahead by 767

[Democratic Hawk]

Liberals currently ahead of the Greens in Melbourne by 239 votes but with only 69.5% counted, it ain't over yet. Lots of absent ballots et al.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

When we can we expect all counting to be done and dusted? Am I right in thinking all votes must be cast prior to (pre-poll), on (absent, provisional) or received by (postal) election day?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Yeah - the AEC said Friday afternoon for the House.

I just noticed the pre-poll votes in Bennelong favoured Howard by a grand total of 9 votes (TPP). The swing remains 5.7%

Just hope the 19.3% that remains to be counted doesn't favour Howard enough to turn Bennelong his way

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Macarthur, NSW is no longer considered close with the Liberals ahead by 718 (50.51%)

Herbert, QLD: ALP ahead by 10 (50.01%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 60 (50.04%)
Swan: LIB ahead by 146 (50.11%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 207 (50.13%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590 (50.42%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 665 (50.44%)
Corangamite, VIC: ALP ahead by 738 (50.46%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 428 (50.47%)

[Democratic Hawk]

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 396 (50.23%)
Update4: McEwen is back on the "close" list - and pretty close, actually.

Yes, thus far, absent votes counted in McEwen have split pretty comfortably (61.26% on TPP) in Labor's favour

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Robertson, NSW and McEwen, VIC are no longer considered close with ALP ahead by 928 (50.62%) and Liberals ahead by 862 (50.52%), respectively

Robertson, NSW is currently but 0.01% away from being "close", so it could be joining McEwen

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

McKew declares victory in Bennelong

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/01/2106949.htm

With most absent, pre-poll and postal ballots counted, there is little chance Howard can win once they and the provisionals are all done and dusted. McKew, currently, leads Howard 51.25% to 48.75% with 92.3% of votes counted

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The Returning Officer for Herbert, QLD says that the result will not be known for at least another week. Is there no statutory cut-off date by which votes must be received and counted after the election?

Dave