ANC Leadership Election 2012

[Kitteh]

I figured I'd start a thread for this since there's none yet.

The African National Congress is having a leadership election at its conference in Manguang this year. Incumbent President Jacob Zuma is facing a strong challenge from Kgalema Motlanthe (who was a seat-filler president for a short time in 2008 and 09). From what I can tell in news stories the race is extremely competitive and most people have no idea who will win. COSATU (the Congress Of South African Trade Unions) has thrown its support behind Zuma while the ANC Youth League is opposing Zuma. Regional and linguistic differences also seem to be playing a big part (Zuma is a Zulu-speaker while Motlanthe speaks Tswana). KwaZulu-Natal seems to be mostly behind Zuma, which is important because KZN has more delegates than any other province.

Voting will be by delegates, who are allocated as such:

Provincial Delegates (91.2% of delegates):

KwaZulu-Natal - 974
Eastern Cape - 676
Limpopo - 574
Gauteng - 500
Mpumalanga  - 467
Free State- 324
North West - 234
Western Cape - 178
Northern Cape - 176

Total - 4103

The provincial numbers are allocated according to the number of ANC members in each province, which is why provinces with lower ANC support (Western Cape, Guateng) are underrepresented compared to stronger ANC provinces.

Others (8.8% of delegates):

ANC Provincial Leaderships - 180
ANC National Executive Committee - 82
ANC Youth League - 45
ANC Women's League - 45
ANC Veteran's League - 45

Total - 397

[Kitteh]

What Hashemite said is all true. I would also point out that neither Motlanthe nor Zuma have or will "carved out a fief" for their supporters. The ANC is extremely internally divided, and the nominal leader of the ANC still has to play internal politics and doesn't have total power or control over the party (as shown by the fact that they axed Mbeki while he was president and now may do the same for Zuma). There are lots of ambitious and backstabbing politicians in the ranks of the ANC who are willing to change their support whenever it seems advantageous for them, and the position of the president is more one of trying to balance out a bunch of different people and keep the party establishment happy than one of carving out a fief for supporters. Whoever is elected will still have to deal with a lot of internal opposition. Especially if Motlanthe runs for reelection as deputy president while also running for the position of president, as many people are suggesting he'll do (the ANC allows people to run for more than one office at once).

[Kitteh]

Why the *beep* would the unions throw their support behind Zuma at this point?

It's important to remember that COSATU was not involved in the Marikana strike. The Marikana miners were members of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), which is a rival to the COSATU-affiliated National Union of Mineworkers (NUM). COSATU opposed the strike and generally supported the government's response to it. COSATU and the NUM are heavily tied to the ANC and the government while the AMCU is more independent and criticizes the NUM for selling out to the government and management. There's a heavy rivalry and even occasional violence between the AMCU and the NUM. The NUM and COSATU see the AMCU as a threat to their dominance of the union movement in SA. All of this means that COSATU has a lot more to lose than to gain in the case of a major upheaval in the ANC, especially if Motlanthe decides to investigate the Zuma government's handling of the Marikana incident (which he may well do to try to improve the ANC's image).

[Kitteh]

Why the *beep* would the unions throw their support behind Zuma at this point?

It's important to remember that COSATU was not involved in the Marikana strike. The Marikana miners were members of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), which is a rival to the COSATU-affiliated National Union of Mineworkers (NUM). COSATU opposed the strike and generally supported the government's response to it. COSATU and the NUM are heavily tied to the ANC and the government while the AMCU is more independent and criticizes the NUM for selling out to the government and management. There's a heavy rivalry and even occasional violence between the AMCU and the NUM. The NUM and COSATU see the AMCU as a threat to their dominance of the union movement in SA. All of this means that COSATU has a lot more to lose than to gain in the case of a major upheaval in the ANC, especially if Motlanthe decides to investigate the Zuma government's handling of the Marikana incident (which he may well do to try to improve the ANC's image).

Actually, a perfect example of this is in the news today:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-10-mine-workers-in-n-west-to-unify-for-mass-strike

Yet another mine workers strike without the support of the NUM. See the picture in that article? Mine workers burning NUM tshirts. That's what COSATU is afraid of.

[Kitteh]

Some controversy today in KwaZulu-Natal, surrounding former national police commissioner Bheki Cele. Cele was the head of the ANC's eThekwini (Durban) branch, the largest branch in KZN, which in turn has more branches than any other province, before he was appointed national police chief by Zuma in 2009. He was dismissed this June after he was accused of corruption following a judicial inquiry (http://mg.co.za/article/2012-06-12-stomach-in-cele-out). Cele claimed the charges against him were a conspiracy by his political opponents (http://mg.co.za/article/2012-06-13-cele-wont-go-down-without-a-fight). Within a few months rumors started that Cele was trying to whip up support for removing Zuma in Manguang (http://mg.co.za/article/2012-09-09-cele-rallies-anti-zuma-camps).
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-16-00-road-to-mangaung-cele-possible-threat-to-kzn-voting-bloc
Now, there are rumors that Cele's branch is going to select him as their delegate to Manguang. Cele supposedly has a good deal of support among ANC members in eThekwini and KZN overall, and should he be selected as a delegate he would probably be very influential in persuading other KZN delegates to drop Zuma. So when branch members found out that there were 200 unfamiliar names on the members roll for the branch, and 84 previous members excluded, including Cele himself, there were understandably allegations of a conspiracy by Zuma's supporters to rig the vote to prevent Cele from being selected as a delegate. Tensions escalated, a fight broke out at the branch meeting, and police had to be called in. Cele's spokespeople, meanwhile, deny that he is involved in any of this or that he is seeking to be nominated as a delegate.

All of this is important because KZN is both the largest province at Manguang and Zuma's home and key stronghold. The pro-Zuma camp has been trying to make it look like KZN is a unified voting bloc behind Zuma, which would make it hard for Motlanthe to win and would discourage him from even entering. But there have already been indications that KZN is not as unified behind Zuma as it was in 2007 or as Zuma's camp says it is (http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-09-00-road-to-mangaung-cracks-show-in-zumas-pillar-of-strength). Whether or not Motlanthe feels he can break off a significant chunk of Zuma's support in KZN will probably weigh heavily on whether he even decides to run or not.

[Kitteh]

Pretty big news today-the eThekwini (Durban) ANC just voted to back Zuma. It's not unexpected, but it is important. eThekwini is the single largest ANC branch in the country, with almost as many members as the entire Western or Northern Cape.

http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-17-ancs-biggest-region-backs-zuma-ramaphosa-at-mangaung

[Kitteh]

Don't know if anyone besides me is following this, but it's interesting to me so I'm going to keep posting.

The general consensus now seems to be that Zuma is gaining the advantage in the race. His support in Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal seems to be very solid while Motlanthe's support in the other provinces is more split. As an example even in Guateng, one of the most strongly anti-Zuma provinces, the ANC Women's League has backed Zuma: http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/ANCWL-Gauteng-wants-Zuma-to-stay-20121119

This isn't really surprising, given that Motlanthe's backers are not really pro-Motlanthe but anti-Zuma. The anti-Zuma side is a loose and disorganized coalition united only by their desire to see Zuma replaced by somebody.

The Nomura financial group is now predicting that Zuma will be reelected:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-22-nomura-calls-mangaung-for-zuma

Not that multinational financial groups are necessarily the best analysts of SA politics, but generally if anyone is coming out and predicting a winner right now it's Zuma. There's still a lot of doubt because so much of this is happening behind closed doors, but that's how the tea leaves appear to be reading atm.

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The other interesting contest in this race is for Deputy President. That's Motlanthe's current job, the #2 spot in the ANC. He's being challenged this year by businessman Cyril Ramaphosa. Ramaphosa is a perfect example of everything that's wrong with the modern ANC. He was one of the heroes of the anti-apartheid struggle, the main organizer of the National Union of Miners, who grew the NUM from a minor union into a major force. He was one of the leaders of the negotiations that ended apartheid. He was elected to parliament as a member of the ANC in 1994 and in 1997 attempted to run for president but was defeated by Thabo Mbeki for the ANC leadership. After that he left politics for the private sector, at which point his career starts to go downhill. Ramaphosa became extremely wealthy investing in mining interests. He held positions in a number of mining companies, including a seat on the board of Lonmin which owned the infamous Marikana mine when the strike broke out. During the strike he was strongly against the miners, calling for action against the "criminal" strike. Unfortunately, he got what he wanted.

The Guardian has a good article on this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/25/cyril-ramaphosa-marikana-email

It's an extremely depressing story; one of the biggest sellouts in history.

Anyway, Ramaphosa is now challenging Motlanthe for deputy president with the support of the pro-Zuma faction. Some people in the party may try to hedge their bets by supporting Zuma for president and Motlanthe for vp, but there's actually a good chance that Motlanthe will lose to Zuma and Ramaphosa. Many people are speculating that Ramaphosa would then take over as president of the country from Zuma either after the 2014 election or just before it.

[Kitteh]

Zachie Achmat, one of the last few really good people remaining in the ANC, has said that he'll leave the ANC if Zuma is reelected:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-28-choose-zuma-and-ill-leave-anc-says-tac-leader-achmat

Not really shocking. Achmat has been on icy terms with the ANC leadership ever since he started a movement opposing Mbeki's crazy HIV/AIDS policy. He'll probably join one of the new leftist parties that have sprung out of the former ANC far-left in the wake of Marikana. The Trostskyist group in the ANC that he was a part of has already left the ANC to form its own party, the Democratic Socialist Movement.

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In other news, Julius Malema once again attacks his successor in the ANCYL, Ronald Lamola (who has taken over as acting leader since Malema was expelled). This story is not really very important in itself (this is about as shocking a headline as "Republicans attack Obama"), but what's interesting here is the accusation that Lamola is negotiating behind the scenes with Zuma to switch the ANCYL's support from Motlanthe to Zuma in exchange for Lamola being appointed as long-term president (his successor as interim president will be chosen at Manguang). The ANCYL has been one of the leading anti-Zuma forces in the ANC.
http://www.iol.co.za/news/special-features/juju-slams-lamola-1.1432020#.ULYQSuSkpg8

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Oh, and not exactly related, but yet another reason that even though the ANC is a pile of s--t the DA isn't a whole lot better:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-28-zille-wants-army-in-rural-areas

[Kitteh]

It was only a matter of time before this thing went to the courts. A number of anti-Zuma groups have taken the Free State province ANC to court alleging vote rigging in favor of Zuma in that province's convention in July when delegates to Manguang were selected. The ANC leadership in the Free State is strongly pro-Zuma so it was no surprise to anyone when the province voted overwhelmingly to support Zuma for reelection. Now the outcome of that vote is being contested in court which could result in the Free State delegates being disqualified which would be a major blow to Zuma:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-11-30-00-court-fight-may-swing-mangaung

And here's a more detailed article on what happened in the court from the City Press (Johnannesburg):
http://www.citypress.co.za/Politics/News/Lawlessness-in-ANC-justifies-court-action-Shivambu-20121129

Also the reporter who wrote that story (Charl Du Plessis) had some good live-tweets of the event from the court room (@CharlduPlessc on twitter).

[Kitteh]

So, sadly, Zuma's victory is looking pretty much certain at this point. Zuma already has been nominated by 58.9% of the total delegates heading to Manguang, and a lot of the others have yet to declare either way. With those kinds of numbers it's probably not even going to be close, and Motlanthe might decide to not run at all to avoid the embarrassment of an overwhelming defeat.

Motlanthe's supporters are now turning to allegations that the vote was rigged in a number of places, as I talked about in my last post. It seems like at least some of the allegations are valid, but I doubt that they're going to change anything. Regardless of whether or not they're true this seems like an acknowledgement from the Anti-Zuma camp that they can't win without some kind of intervention from the courts.

http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-01-riggings-and-rumours-aside-zuma-looks-set-for-second-term

[Kitteh]

So now that Zuma's reelection is basically certain, people are now looking downballot. Not surprisingly, Zuma supporters are planning a purge of anti-Zuma politicians in lower offices.
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-07-00-road-to-mangaung-after-the-party-heads-will-roll

Some names mentioned:
Tokyo Sexwale, Minister of Human Settlements
Fikile Mbalula, Minister of Sports
Paul Mashatile, Minister of Arts and Culture
Cassel Mathale, Limpopo Province Premier
Thandi Modise, North West Provice Premier
Parks Tau, Mayor of Johannesburg
Kgosientso Ramokgopa, Mayor of Tshwane (Pretoria)

Also, Zuma supporters want the provincial executive committees in Limpopo and North West disbanded, as well as the national executive committee of the ANC Youth League.

This list is not surprising at all. North West, Limpopo, and Guateng (where Jo'burg and Tshwane are located) are the strongest anti-Zuma provinces, and the ANCYL is notoriously against the ANC leadership.

[Kitteh]

Big news- Motlanthe is running!
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-13-motlanthe-accepts-nomination-for-anc-president

He's still almost certain to lose, but appearantly he's decided to run anyway. His supporters are saying that it's a decision made on principle, and that Motlanthe is inspired by Harry Gwala, who challenged longtime figure in the ANC establishment Walter Sisulu for the role of deputy president in 1990 and won even though everybody assumed Sisulu would win easily. None of this sounds like what I've heard of Motlanthe, who is usually said to be cautious, pragmatic, and risk-averse, but maybe the popular image of him is wrong.
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-10-00-motlanthe-to-challenge-zuma-on-principle

[Kitteh]

The Manguang Conference is just two days, and things are still heating up. Today, South Africa's Constitutional Court* ruled in the case I mentioned earlier that the Free State ANC Provincial Conference was unconstitutional because of irregularities:
http://www.bdlive.co.za/national/politics/2012/12/14/top-court-declares-free-state-anc-conference-unlawful

This should be a victory for Motlanthe. But of course things aren't so simple. There's dispute over whether the court's ruling means that the slate of delegates who were chosen at the Free State ANC provincial conference can attend Manguang or not. Obviously, Motlanthe's supporters, who brought the case, are saying that because the provincial conference was illegal the delegates selected there are also illegal and shouldn't be able to vote at the conference. Zuma supporters and the Free State ANC establishment, however, are saying that the decision applied only requires that the Free State conference be held over again, not that the delegates selected there are invalid. Since the conference is in two days but the full court ruling won't be available until the 18th, it doesn't seem like the court will be able to clarify their ruling in time. So it looks like the delegates will still be able to attend the conference:
http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Free-State-ANC-delegates-attending-conference-20121214

Zuma has enough of a margin at this point that even if the Free State delegates don't vote, he would still likely win. But this ruling delegitimizes this joke of a conference even further.

Also, the Mail & Guardian has a good graphic of each candidate's slate for the lower positions, which will be highly contested as well:


Note though that Motlanthe is standing for both President and Deputy President, which means that if he wins the Presidential nomination Mathews Phosa will be the candidate of the anti-Zuma faction for Deputy (against Cyril Ramaphosa) but if Motlanthe loses the Presidential race then the race for Deputy will be between Ramaphosa and Motlanthe.

[Kitteh]

Manguang starts tomorrow! The conference will last around a week and a whole bunch of decisions will be made during that time, so the results of Zuma vs Motlanthe and other races might not be known for a few days. I'll try to cover it as up-to-date as I can, but given the time difference I may only get to most events after the fact.


Anyway, the ANC national committee has decided that the Free State ANC's Provincial Executive Committee will not be allowed to vote at the conference, unless they are going as part of another position they hold. This does not affect the delegates sent from each of the branches of the ANC within the Free State (representing local municipalities), as those are technically separate from the province-wide leadership and the court ruling yesterday only applied to the latter. This is not quite what Motlanthe would have liked, as the branch delegates that are still heavily pro-Zuma will still be voting. Because of that, this decision shouldn't have a very significant impact on the overall numbers.
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-15-free-state-anc-prohibited-from-voting-at-mangaung-conference


And of course, there's lotsa big money involved here:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-14-00-road-to-mangaung-anc-cadres-cash-in-on-bed-squeeze

http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-15-guests-fork-out-r500-000-to-share-a-table-with-zuma

[Kitteh]

The conference has started!

Zuma opened the conference with a speech that talked about everything from corruption to Marikana to factionalism in the ANC to rhino poaching. The speech went for a total of 90 minutes. Here's a Wordle map of Zuma's speech, courtesy of SABC:


Long speeches seem to be the order of the day, actually. ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe gave a 3 hour long speech to the conference, which put people to sleep:


At one point, Mantashe actually had to interrupt his speech to say:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Zuma, on the other hand, chose to liven up the speech with some good old Apartheid era chants and songs, as well as showing off his dance moves:


The two sides have adopted competing hand gestures, with the pro-Zuma faction using a Churchillian V-for-victory sign:


...and the Motlanthe supporters using the football sign for substitution, rolling fingers over each other.


All this aside, there hasn't been much actual news from the conference as of yet. The biggest story so far is that Cyril Ramaphosa has apparently decided to accept the nominations he has received for Deputy President, setting him up for a fight against Motlanthe:
http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-16-ramaphosa-throws-hat-into-the-ring


If you're interested in following things as they happen, the Mail & Guardian has a great liveblog of the event:
http://liveblog.mg.co.za/2012/12/15/mangaung-anc-national-electoral-conference/

Also Twitter coverage is very up-to-date. Search for #Manguang or #ANC2012.

[Kitteh]

Day 2 of the Mangaung conference, and a number of things have happened.


The first, and biggest, news is that Motlanthe has gone all-in: he withdrew his name from consideration for the position of Deputy President. This means he's only in the race for President, and if he loses that vote (as he almost certainly will) he won't hold any political positions at all after this election.

http://mg.co.za/article/2012-12-17-mangaung-the-gloves-are-off-as-top-six-nominations-announced

All of this seems very out of character for Motlanthe. As I've said before, most reports in the past have not made him seem like the kind of guy that would risk his political career for a suicide run on principle. The JHB city press has a good article interpreting this as Motlanthe basically giving the finger to Zuma, by saying that he will not serve at all under a Zuma administration.
http://www.citypress.co.za/politics/why-kgalema-jumped/

This also makes it even more likely that Cyril Ramaphosa will be elected Deputy President. The anti-Zuma vote will now be split between Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa, who are both running for deputy, basically meaning that if by some miracle the pro-Zuma slate doesn't get a majority, they could still win this with a plurality.


Also, some far-right Afrikaner/white nationalists were arrested for planning a bomb attack on the conference:
http://www.citypress.co.za/politics/mangaung-bomb-plot-exposed/


One of the major topics of debate yesterday and today was the "National Development Plan". The NDP is a plan drafted by the government this summer laying out the ANC government's plans for how to grow the South African economy and reduce income inequality in the next few decades. The plan was supported by most of the ANC leadership but was attacked by some of the more leftist elements of the ANC coalition, most notably COSATU, because it focused heavily on foreign private investment as a path to growth and called for things such as increased private involvement in housing and changes to labor laws that the unions disliked. The NDP and several related aspects have been debated multiple times during this conference, and the general reaction from delegates has been lukewarm- not outright rejection but not strong endorsement either. Ironically, the person responsible for drafting the NDP, Trevor Manuel, has announced that after this conference he will be retiring from politics.


Also, a great video from the M&G analyzing the conference so far:
http://mg.co.za/multimedia/2012-12-17-mg-analysis-mangaung-so-far