My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[12th Doctor]

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

Gepardt supporters (some of them) could go to Edwards.  Especially in the south.

[12th Doctor]

Okay, I'm sure I'll be eating crow tomorrow night, but here are my predictions:

Dean 31%
Kerry 24%
Edwards 23%
Gephardt 18%

In any event, Dean will finish stronger than expected and Gephardt is in serious trouble.  I could see Edwards finishing second and Kerry third, but I think Dean will finish first and Gephardt will finish fourth.

Hm, it seems like everyone is pretty certain that Gephardt will go down, which is worse for him than any of the others, since he has the highest expectations on him.

Btw, wont second choices matter a lot? In a lot of places at least one of the four front runners are bound to fall below 15%. Where will those voters go? I think that they will not primarily go to Dean, and that it might hurt him in a number of places.

I think that Gepardt will go down and that will benefit Edwards, but not enough to beat Dean.