How will the political landscape be in 2024?

[12th Doctor]

As I have said numerous times, you can't anticipate what things will be like 20 years down the road.  You can guess with some level of accuracy what the demographics of certain areas will be like, and thus have a decent idea of how they might be inclined, but the parties themselves change, and the issues change.  There are going to be huge issues then that we haven't even thought of now.

[12th Doctor]

Something like this:

Red and Blue = Dem. & Rep. respectively

There is more party unity for economic issues within the Democratic party (some Republican candidates have to run as labor- and working-class-friendly (sort of the opposite today, where DLC interests seem to hold sway) to have any chance of winning.  The dark Red and light blue tend to elect socially/culturally-liberal candidates, while light red and dark blue tend to elect socially/culturally-conservative candidates.  In all respects, the leftist side is able to produce though Democrats only a functional majority on economic/labor issues, while they sometimes must form coalitions with socially/culturally-liberal Republicans.  There is talk of secession in Georgia, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Louisiana.

For the most part, Democrats are able to hold socially-conservative voters while legislating and enacting comprehensively-leftist legislation because they clearly distinguish themselves and articulate differences with Republicans--from taxes to health care (it is at this time, that we start moving from the health care system John Edwards and Congress enacted in 2010 towards a single-payer health care) to trade (WTO is abolished and all U.S. trade agreements are either canceled are renegotiated such that we adhere to and demand stringent labor and human rights as well as environmental protection).  Utilities are placed in the hands of people where they belong in the form of cooperatives.  Family- and community-based Agriculture and wind energy farms are (re-)established in the Midwest and Great Plains while solar energy farms are established out West.  All U.S. private military firms are abolished and the U.S. has pressured other countries to abandon them. 

Although our presence in the Middle East declines, we have worked with leaders in the region to become less reliant on oil, and create more equitable conditions for their citizens, and subsequently violence precipitously falls.  Because these diplomatic efforts have paid off and convinced U.S. citizens, by-and-large, that we can make the world a better place and increase our own security without always using our military, the only significant operations in which they must engage are counterterrorism efforts in the Deep South and Interior West.

Finally Democrats become more of a big tent party without really having to adopt the socially-conservative factional elements in their party because they adopt an approach that tries to reconcile tradition with tolerance.  No excuse abortions are outlawed in the second half of pregnancy while contraception becomes much more accessible.  Civil marriages are replaced by civil unions and allowed for any two individuals above the age of consent, while the religious institution of marriage is restored to religious bodies themselves.  Democrats pledge not to use such issues as Republicans have without every delivering.

Is that map a joke?  Even if the country swings so far to the Left, the Republican Party will just adjust as one of the major parties has always adjusted to remain competetive.

[12th Doctor]

Based totally on trends and guessing:

Democrats: 211
Republican: 124
Tossup: 203

I think that both Missouri and Tennessee will lose an EV.

Where is the evidence that Indiana and Kentucky will gain one a each?  Certainly North Carolina and Virginia will gain before they do.

Growth is going to become unsustainable in Florida... and even more so if there is either a severe economic slow down, or any rise in sea level.

Severe water shortages are going to hamper growth in the Southwest... whether climate change makes things drier or not and there is no evidence that New Mexico will grow that fast.  Again unsustainable growth and unwillingness to find a long term solution to the water problem will be the culprits.

Maryland will pick up a vote, I think.

PA and Ohio won't bleed as badly as you predict, and nor will New York.

Washington will stay the same, or even pick up a vote, barring disaster.