Which Gore States Would Kerry Lose?

[12th Doctor]

I would say MN is first ont he hit list.  Followd in descending order by NM, OR, IA, WI

and PA is a tossup and MI could be.

Don't forget Minnisota.

[12th Doctor]

I didn't that is what MN stands for.

I would say MN is first ont he hit list.  Followd in descending order by NM, OR, IA, WI

and PA is a tossup and MI could be.

Don't forget Minnisota.

Oh, didn't see that, sorry.

[12th Doctor]

I don't buy into to this "Kerry will lose more states than Gore" school of thought.

Kerry has some distinct advantages which Gore did not.  The whole veteran thing plays well with military, military families, and vets.  He is a Catholic.  The fastest growing group in this country are Hispanics who are, almost universally, Catholic.  He doesn't have the loss of Nader voters the way Gore did.

With that in mind here are the states I think are "in play".

FL -- Clearly.  Add 1/4 of Nader votes to Gore and Gore wins the state.  Kerry should do at least as good as Bush did here, if not better.

PA -- Always a battleground state.  Tends to go Democrat more often though.

OH -- Again, always a battleground state.  Tends to go Republican more often.  Steel tariffs could put it in play.

WV -- Typically a Dem state, went Republican in 2000.  Steel tariffs could switch it back to the Dems.

MN -- Used to be a Dem stronghold but has gradually been drifting Repub.

MO -- Always a battleground.

NM -- Gore barely won it in 2000.  Will definitely be in play again.

AZ -- Used to be a Repub stronghold but has gradually been drifting Dem.  Throw in the vet factor and I wouldn't be shocked to see a Kerry upset here.

NV -- Typically a Repub stronghold.  But in Vegas being the fastest expanding American city (and having a very "liberal" social attitude) one tends to believe this could be changing.  Especially after it got the nation's nuclear waste.

NH & VT -- Hard to predict these states.

Other states I think are minor battlegrounds but less likely to shift include CA, OR, IA, WI, AR, LA, GA, and NJ.

Gore maybe liberal, but he ran as a centrist.  Why can't you guys understand, noone as liberal as Dean or Kerry can win in America if they run as a liberal.  Also, the Republicans have out registered Democrats nearly 3-1 in some of these states over the last 3 years.  That includes PA, FL, AZ, MN and MO.  You guys don't seem to get that this is not going to be the same as the election in 2000.  You are stratigizing around that.  That's your problem.  You should be concentrating on "what can we say to convince the American people that we are better than Bush", not "what can we do to win one more state"?

[12th Doctor]

Gustaf, you're in Sweden, right?

I wouldn't say that Bush has successfully led this country through anything.  The apparent rebound in the economy is being fueled by consumer spending.  Job and wage growth was at the lowest it has been since the Jimmy Carter era.  A disproportionate number of the jobs which have been created are temporary jobs.

I know people who voted Gore in 2000 and people who voted Bush.  None of the Gore voters I know are switching.  Some of the Bush voters are.

It all boils down to the Reagan yardstick.  Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?  Right now the answer for most Americans is No.

I don't get where you come-off calling Bush an extremist.  He gave out a prescription drug benefit, he let Ted Kennedy write the education bill, he granted what amounts to amnesty for illegals not to mention tons of other left-wing things he's done.

If Kerry shifts back to being a centrist, then he will have to reject his campagn possitions and the hundreds of votes he has made in the Senate.

[12th Doctor]

Kerry could lose Michigan.  Although no matter who wins the nomination Michigan should be close.

I always thought Michigan was a stronghold for the Democrats?

It depends, Michigan is usually relibly Democrat, but it has a strong Republican base and has been known to go Republican where the Dems run someone who is too liberal.