Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

Submarines - allegations about some monkey business done by some attorney who represented the manufacturering German company in getting them the contract. Said attorney is also Bibi's cousin and attorney...some suspicious evidence there and the police are "examining" while not formally investigating yet. This story could reallly gain traction soon, and it seems Bibi is well aware of that.

Fire - a series of wildfires had started in the past couple of days here (and the surrounding countries) due to some peculiar climate conditions. It appears arsonists had a hand in at least some though it's too soon to draw conclusions, yet some politicians already claimed that up to 70% of the fires were perpetrated by Arabs and are a new weapon. It appears like a phenomenon of mass hysteria to me, they arrested some people with a big hoorah and then released some (they arrested one because he had toilet paper in his back pocket). The hysteria was enhanced by the fact that the fire hit the foresty city of Haifa causing tens of thousands to evacuate and burning my IKEA garden shed:(

[Hnv1]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

It's their 30-45 medium education voters who trend so volatile

Anyway, my bet is on Nissan "porno mustache" Slomiansky.

[Hnv1]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

It's their 30-45 medium education voters who trend so volatile

Anyway, my bet is on Nissan "porno mustache" Slomiansky.

What makes the young YA supporters solid-ish, while the middle-aged ones very swingy?
Because YA is the most "hip" party and because some the middle-aged ones are ZU-YA swing voters?

Young people are more ideaological, Most YA voters in recent elections weren't first/second time voters they tend to be more ideaological to the left or the right. YA has their own bloc of young people - the boring, very Zionist proud, but uncomfortable with Likud and right views on social issues, usually hailing from the new colleges as opposed to the old universities.

There's nothing hip about YA, Lapid is universally hated by hipsters and the left.

Young voters are less likely to trend. 30-45 voters who grew up in demise of the old blocs politics are more volatile, young voters are in some way Neo-political

[Hnv1]

In other news the US and our "special relationship" screw us yet again. The cabinet decided to purchase 17 more F-35 AKA piece of flying garbage and one of the biggest white elephants of military history instead of buying the new F-15 who show much better stats (and can actually fly an operational mission).

But it's "stealth"!! so all the tabloid could have headlines explaining how high tech it is, never mind it can carry a load of 2 tonnes on low signature mode and only to short ranges.

I remember back in the days of my military service how the US ed us over several times on all sort of procurement deals, the joys of being a proxy state.  

[Hnv1]

Channel 10 poll:
Likud - 24
YA - 24
JAL - 13
JH - 11
ZU - 10 (lol)
Liberman's crime family - 9
Meretz - 7
Shas -7
UTJ - 7
Kulanu - 7

Lapid could form a weird-narrow-unstable coalition with ZU JH Liberman and Kulano (61), Bennet would much rather brand himself as the leader of the right from within (and kill off Bibi) but his base would rather sit with Bibi (and Tkuma might breakaway in such scenario)

[Hnv1]

There's a bundle of bills on the table: expropriation of west banks lands, new tax on owners of several flats, securing the orthodoxy's hold on the west wall, and the closing of the new public media corporation. Each coalition party wants one but not some of the others. We have a serious prisoner dilemma here...it will be interesting to see how this unfolds. 

Tel Aviv and it's ugly neighbor to the south Bat Yam are heading for a merger, this will have interesting demographic results (I suspect old Bat Yam residents will be priced out and the south Tel Aviv hipsters will find new hubs there). Tel Aviv declared goal is to bring all municipal authorities in the area under one jurisdiction, I am all for as it will force decentralization of power from Jerusalem. 

This is how the two voted in 2015:

Tel Aviv (263,205 voters):
ZU 34.27%
Likud 18.19%
Meretz 13.03%
YA 11.57%
Kulanu 6.88%
Shas 3.90%
JH 3.36%
JAL 3.25%
Liberman 2.08% (LOL)
Yachad  1.11%
UTJ 1.01%

Bat Yam (69,206 voters):
Likud 33.36%
ZU 14.58%
Liberman 12.88%
Kulano 11.23%
YA 9.30%
Shas 6.88%
JH 5.15%
Yachad 2.42%
Meretz 1.42%
UTJ 1.03%
JAL 0.18%

As you can see, very different cities

[Hnv1]

Wouldn't it endanger the left's hold on the mayorship of Tel Aviv, though, thus turning the last big bastion of the Israeli left to the right?

Basically no, last two elections were of a Labour mayor against someone to his left (communist Hanin in 08 who got 30%, and Horowitz of Meretz in 13 who got 39%). If a merger happens Tel Aviv will just unite behind a single leftist

[Hnv1]

How is this in the interest of Bat Yam? Why don't they merge with more similar Holon instead?

Well they don't want it. But they are bankrupt and poorly ran so the government can just force it down. Bat Yam is closer to Tel Aviv and could benefit from their money. Holon isn't doing too great either, they only prospering there is Rishon and that because they had a huge land mass so they could attract lots of business to move there and pay let property tax than Tel Aviv.

[Hnv1]

How is this in the interest of Bat Yam? Why don't they merge with more similar Holon instead?

Well they don't want it. But they are bankrupt and poorly ran so the government can just force it down. Bat Yam is closer to Tel Aviv and could benefit from their money. Holon isn't doing too great either, they only prospering there is Rishon and that because they had a huge land mass so they could attract lots of business to move there and pay let property tax than Tel Aviv.

Yeah. In any case, the municipal authorities in Israel are just absolutely corrupt and horribly ran, maybe with the exception of the big ones, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, who are under more scrunity, and a few others (like Beer Sheva). Someone needs to shake this whole thing up.

Jerusalem is up there with the worst, it just gets load of money from the government so people don't notice how dysfunctional the city is (and its pretensions mayor).

Overall part for Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beer Sheva, and some of the Sharon cities they are all terribly ran\corrupt\in huge deficits.

I think an overall reform scrapping lots of municipal authorities and uniting them in larger ones with more autonomy will them all well (this must be augmented by a move to redistribute state lands between cities and smaller rural councils)

[Hnv1]

How is this in the interest of Bat Yam? Why don't they merge with more similar Holon instead?

Well they don't want it. But they are bankrupt and poorly ran so the government can just force it down. Bat Yam is closer to Tel Aviv and could benefit from their money. Holon isn't doing too great either, they only prospering there is Rishon and that because they had a huge land mass so they could attract lots of business to move there and pay let property tax than Tel Aviv.

Yeah. In any case, the municipal authorities in Israel are just absolutely corrupt and horribly ran, maybe with the exception of the big ones, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, who are under more scrunity, and a few others (like Beer Sheva). Someone needs to shake this whole thing up.

Jerusalem is up there with the worst, it just gets load of money from the government so people don't notice how dysfunctional the city is (and its pretensions mayor).

Overall part for Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beer Sheva, and some of the Sharon cities they are all terribly ran\corrupt\in huge deficits.

I think an overall reform scrapping lots of municipal authorities and uniting them in larger ones with more autonomy will them all well (this must be augmented by a move to redistribute state lands between cities and smaller rural councils)

But since this kind of reform would be almost impossible to do without broad bipartisan support and, more importantly, cooperation from municipal authorities, I think a few smaller steps to combat the corruption are needed. Namely, term limits for mayors (seriously, my city's mayor has been in office since 1976, and that's before the city became a city). Another measure could be scrapping local parties and returning to the tradition of major parties running their own candidates in municipal elections. I'm not basing it or any facts, but it seems to me like regional parties allow the mayors to have more control, appoint family members and friends etc, while major parties have interest in not being percieved as corrupt, thus adding a bit more scrunity.

You can't scrap local parties it's against freedom of association plus a lot of people don't like national party lists running on municipal level (like it or not major parties are not a good brand on the local level). Tenure cap for mayors is a step in the right direction.

There is a bipartisan support at the national level for change but local dictators usually hold a lot of sway in Likud\Labour. This needs to come from the government by forcing their hands and refusing to pay their deficits

[Hnv1]

How are Likud and Kulanu different on Zionism and other issues?

That's not a good way to understand party lines in Israel all parties part for the orthodox and the Arabs are zionists parties (and the Haredi are de facto Zionist).

Kulano is soft Likud on almost everything, what ever position Likud takes Kulano will be an inch to the left.

Individual MKs vary quite substantively there. Azaria would sit comfortably in Labour, Polkman could fit in YA (very economic liberal), Oren is a likudnik through and through, Galant is a bland ex general, and all the rest can't be classed as similar as well. Yet as a party they're fairly consistent

[Hnv1]

Amir Peretz announced he is running for Labour leadership (for the fourth time) this June. Other possible contenders as Margarit, Shelly, and Bar Lev were so far silent

[Hnv1]

Amazing as Netanyahu received his biggest policy blow (even bigger than the Iran deal) and Labour can't even capitalize on that. I'm surprised Labour MKs aren't in full revolt already, this behavior is perplexing

[Hnv1]

Amazing as Netanyahu received his biggest policy blow (even bigger than the Iran deal) and Labour can't even capitalize on that. I'm surprised Labour MKs aren't in full revolt already, this behavior is perplexing

Herzog is a total mess as an opposition leader, gib primaries pls. Some Labour MKs are reacting well, like Shapir and Michaeli, but they can't really act on it like Herzog. Not even talking about Lapid.

I was referring to acting against Herzog, this lull is unlikely to Labour party nature.

[Hnv1]

Avi Gabai, former minister from Kulanu joins Labour. He has a pretty good public image after dueling it out with Bibi over the 'gas deal' and his last week channel 2 interview. But still too inexperienced to challenge the leadership.

In his statement he also took a shot at Kachlon and Lapid questioning the legitimacy of a chairman omnipotence partiesץ

Oren and Galant looked like they were planning for their primaries in Likud this week.  

[Hnv1]

Wasn't Ya'alon supposed to form a party by now?

A. no elections in near sight
B. no funding.
C. quite a dreary character, he would not go for such a move by himself.

[Hnv1]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

[Hnv1]

Bibi is suspected of receiving inappropriate "gift" from multi-millionaire donors. A second corruption charge (and one of greater weight if the rumours be taken at face value) is about to be revealed soon. An indictment means he has to resign.

Can you smell it? it's election time

[Hnv1]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

[Hnv1]

Will a hypothetical new Likud leader and PM ease the current tension between USA-Israel-UN or will it suffer no change?

The new U.S. president will.

Yeah of course.... Clearly i wrote the question the wrong way. Sorry, my bad. What i was asking is if a new PM will change, or not, the current policy line of two people/two states and if Likud has any wing agaisnt this policy and in favour on a one state solution.

Why would they do that? Non of them believes in 2SS but they all know it's a diplomatic asset.
Only Elkin and Levine are careless enough to do so.

[Hnv1]

According to Knessetjeremy:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree with points 2 and 3 (though 3 is hardly relevant) and don't know enough to say anything about 4. But 1 is important: a new Likud leader could theoretically simply replace Bibi is he's indicted. Why would that not happen, hnv1? None of the coalition parties seem truly eager to trigger a snap election (though that may change if Bibi has to go, obviously, but that would be a gamble!). And who do you think would be most likely to replace Bibi?

As to 1 if the indictment is coming bibi will call for election before it is served, that's the whole point to deter them from serving it (as serving it during an election cycle is implausible). He can just fire all ministers and lose a confidence vote, it is unlikely anyone else could form a government (though in some scenario that will happen only to have him kicked out of the arena) and non of the Likud big players would like to be conceived as undermining him.

Likud primaries are a shifty affair, and bibi worked hard to kill off any possible competition. Katz and Arden are popular but not leadership material. I guess Saar will have a comeback and win it (only to lose the election). But Saar has his own pandora box...

I don't Knesset Jeremy, but the likelihood of Bennet, Lieberman and Kachlon taking orders from Katz or Erden is slim as I see it

So if Saar loses the elections, what do you think will happen? Clearly, the left can't win right now.

Ragtag coalition led by Lapid including Liberman, Bennet, Kachlon, and Labour\Likud. won't last for 2 years.
But it is very hypothetical as if Bibi is out there will be changes across the spectrum with new players in and new constellations formed (Labour won't put Herzog against Saar). It is plausible we'll see the same scenario mentioned earlier only with a party led by Boogie\Ashkenazi\Kachlon in charge (though Ganz will likely head to Labour so you never know).

[Hnv1]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

Calling for a snap election will actually have a strategic wit to it. It will force Labour to go in with Herzog at the top what will actually end in single digits (and longterm massive damage)

[Hnv1]

Poll from tonight (grain of salt)
YA 27
Likud 23
JH 12
JAL 12
Lieberman 10
ZU 8 (LOL)
Shas 8
Kachlon 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6

Labor has polled this badly before but they always end up coming winning some number in the teens when the actual election happens. They usually get a bounce after their leadership election. Yesh Atid, of course, will have no such election and no such bounce.

Calling for a snap election will actually have a strategic wit to it. It will force Labour to go in with Herzog at the top what will actually end in single digits (and longterm massive damage)

What? No primaries for leadership and list before? Seems very odd. There were primaries before all the previous ones

If it's really soon I can't see them having both at the same time. Meretz did but Galon ran unopposed anyway.

[Hnv1]

Given the silence here, I have to ask, has the BBC been overhyping how significant the Elor Azaria case has been in Israel, or are our ardent defenders of Zionism here humane enuf to not defend a homicidal medic, or are both factors the case here? I think both are likely true, but I could be wrong.

Well as a lawyer there was absolutely no doubt he was guilty (I would say the mens rea was sufficient for murder but the court didn't want to go that far). Yet, it also quite true that many similar cases did not end with conviction, and that standard army behavior in the field legitimized such conduct. Hence, it will be unjust to treat him as a scapegoat.
The political right is going rabid over this (rather incoherently I think), the political left is actually rather quiet (the centre-left trying to avoid publicity damage and the harder left knows it's a drop in an ocean so why bother). But the moral discourse here is less interesting than the political one, especially how Liberman and Bennet diverged here.

The CoGS actually came out as the most reasonable speaker here. He became a new enemy of the far right and a new darling for the statist centre-left.

I personally don't find this case all that interesting bar for sociological reasons as signaling trends in society.

[Hnv1]

Nice way of deflecting the point. Clearly Parrotguy was asking whether Israel should want to be known as a nation known primarily for its justice (like the US in WW2) or as a nation known primarily for its vengeance (like the Soviets in WW2).

Has nothing to do with deflecting his point and everything with rejecting it. I don't care for your and Parrotguy's Western view on morality regarding war and peace. That's the entire point of this disagreement. I also don't think the idea that the U.S. was oh-so just whereas the Soviets were simply being vengeful should be taken seriously.

Personally, I think a pardon is more than warranted, followed by an official government-initiated ceremony on the Temple Mount to celebrate his freedom with the people.

Actually, if you'd go back and read your Tanakh, especially Isaiah and Amos, I think you'd see I'm applying a Biblical view on morality. The God I see in there is one that wants people to pursue justice and leave vengeance to him to mete out.  But maybe you won't see it. Maybe you'll prove just as deaf to the warning against hubris and pride found in Amos 6:12-14 as Amaziah and Jeroboam were.

Actually if you go read a book with thousands of pages written over a span of 300 years by different authors you'll find grounding for whatever you want to believe.

Jewish Law is mainly from the Talmud anyway.