Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

LOL. Netanyahu and his arch nemesis, Yediot's publisher Arnon Moses, were recorded discussing better coverage for Netanyahu there in exchange of Israel Hayom not publishing a weekend edition and maybe shutting down. On top of the corruption case here it also shows Netanyahu's exerts control over Israel Hayom illegally.

The cover of Israel Hayom tomorrow is going to be hilarious

[Hnv1]

LOL. Netanyahu and his arch nemesis, Yediot's publisher Arnon Moses, were recorded discussing better coverage for Netanyahu there in exchange of Israel Hayom not publishing a weekend edition and maybe shutting down. On top of the corruption case here it also shows Netanyahu's exerts control over Israel Hayom illegally.

The cover of Israel Hayom tomorrow is going to be hilarious

Yeah, it's huge. But doesn't it mean that Moses came to Netanyahu with this offer (since he was the one with something to gain- less competition, while Netanyahu already has a friendly newspaper)? And if so, doesn't it mean that since the Israel Hayom law wasn't passed because of Netanyahu, he did not accept Moses' offer and thus is innocent in this case?

Might be I did not hear the content. But it means Bibi has control of the paper which is against funding laws and also means he lied in court twice

[Hnv1]

LOL. Netanyahu and his arch nemesis, Yediot's publisher Arnon Moses, were recorded discussing better coverage for Netanyahu there in exchange of Israel Hayom not publishing a weekend edition and maybe shutting down. On top of the corruption case here it also shows Netanyahu's exerts control over Israel Hayom illegally.

The cover of Israel Hayom tomorrow is going to be hilarious

Yeah, it's huge. But doesn't it mean that Moses came to Netanyahu with this offer (since he was the one with something to gain- less competition, while Netanyahu already has a friendly newspaper)? And if so, doesn't it mean that since the Israel Hayom law wasn't passed because of Netanyahu, he did not accept Moses' offer and thus is innocent in this case?

Might be I did not hear the content. But it means Bibi has control of the paper which is against funding laws and also means he lied in court twice

Yeah, did not hear it yet too. Just assuming according to each man's motives. I've a feeling that this might be the biggest thing to come out of these investigations.

Regardless, even if full on bribe did not happen there's enough substance for an attempted bribe and attempt is punishable by the common law. They both bribed each other in this scenario as it was a bargain.
And they didn't even begin investigating the submarines affair...

I think we will see a very vulgar Bibi in the coming weeks

[Hnv1]

LOL. Netanyahu and his arch nemesis, Yediot's publisher Arnon Moses, were recorded discussing better coverage for Netanyahu there in exchange of Israel Hayom not publishing a weekend edition and maybe shutting down. On top of the corruption case here it also shows Netanyahu's exerts control over Israel Hayom illegally.

The cover of Israel Hayom tomorrow is going to be hilarious

Yeah, it's huge. But doesn't it mean that Moses came to Netanyahu with this offer (since he was the one with something to gain- less competition, while Netanyahu already has a friendly newspaper)? And if so, doesn't it mean that since the Israel Hayom law wasn't passed because of Netanyahu, he did not accept Moses' offer and thus is innocent in this case?

Might be I did not hear the content. But it means Bibi has control of the paper which is against funding laws and also means he lied in court twice

Yeah, did not hear it yet too. Just assuming according to each man's motives. I've a feeling that this might be the biggest thing to come out of these investigations.

Regardless, even if full on bribe did not happen there's enough substance for an attempted bribe and attempt is punishable by the common law. They both bribed each other in this scenario as it was a bargain.
And they didn't even begin investigating the submarines affair...

I think we will see a very vulgar Bibi in the coming weeks

What scares me more than snap elections is... There was a big terror attack today. Could Bibi pull an Underwood (aka start a war/operation when things go south)? It sounds crazy, but I do hope he's not that cynical.

I did not watch house of cards so I don't know the reference. But the 2015 and 2013 Gaza operations had more than a political odor to them, and 2009 is also dubious in the aspects. I doubt he has the guts to get something going in the West Bank though, and Gaza is as quite as a deadman now.

[Hnv1]

Haaretz reveals the planned deal between Moses and Netanyahu: Moses will convert the powerful Yediot group to support Bibi while Bibi would have promoted a ban on free newspapers (and his 250 million $ gift from Sheldon). There is undoubtedly all elements of corruption charges in this case (including false testimony in 2 other court cases and a breach of funding laws).
I can't see him avoiding indictment here, even if his lackey Mendelblit will try to shut the case down a court writ will force him to place charges.

By reports even Netanyahu was shocked when he found out police had records of that conversation. I hope both he and Moses get jail time, I can't think of people I hate more in our political system (bar for Lapid).

[Hnv1]

The Knesset today voted 51-17 in favor of banning the far left NGO Breaking the Silence from schools, with Meretz and the Joint List opposing the proposal.

The Joint List are on strike as a protest to some houses being demolished.

The rule actually forbids organization that support the trial of Israeli's abroad to appear in schools. So, A. it will not apply to Breaking the Silence as this is not their agenda and supposing otherwise will make the state action ultra vires. B. It is a general norm created with individual specific goals, that is problematic as to the rule-of-aw doctrine. As I know our constitutional law very well, this will either be voided or restricted from actually applying.

Now for real politics. My sources in ZU are saying they like Meretz and YA are already allocating resources for a possible election by the end of the year.

[Hnv1]

MK itzik Schmoli endorses Peretz in the Labour leadership race

[Hnv1]

Haaretz reveals the planned deal between Moses and Netanyahu: Moses will convert the powerful Yediot group to support Bibi while Bibi would have promoted a ban on free newspapers (and his 250 million $ gift from Sheldon). There is undoubtedly all elements of corruption charges in this case (including false testimony in 2 other court cases and a breach of funding laws).
I can't see him avoiding indictment here, even if his lackey Mendelblit will try to shut the case down a court writ will force him to place charges.

By reports even Netanyahu was shocked when he found out police had records of that conversation. I hope both he and Moses get jail time, I can't think of people I hate more in our political system (bar for Lapid).

Is this tape actually real? or, like everything else the Israeli media spews, is it fake? If it is real, why hasn't it been released yet?

I suspect there are elements of it still under investigation and people who need to testify. So we're getting little leaks every day and they're quite shocking.

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His defence image was rehabilitated slightly with Iron Dome, anyway the identity politics idiots think he can win over voters from the right.

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Since 2009 the driving force behind them is the New Liberal Movement whose most members are now Likud members.

[Hnv1]

The coming indictment(s?) are looming above the political sphere, and most major players prepare and estimate a GE by next winter.

Maariv Poll from today:
Do you think the allegations against Bibi are sound?
57% - yes
28% - no
15% - I don't know
(same % view a snap election to save his skin as unworthy\worthy\don't know)

Who's best fitting to be PM afterwards?
21% Lapid
12% Bennet
7% - Sa'ar
6% Ya'alon
others

Who should lead Likud (general public):
Sa'ar - 18%
Ya'alon - 10%
Erdan - 10%
Kachlon - 9%
others

Who should lead Likud (Likud voters):
Erdan up front (couldn't find the percentage)
Sa'ar (likewise)
Katz - 10%
Regev - 10%
Kachlon - 7%
Steinitz - 6%

Mock elections status quo ante:
YA - 26
Likud - 23
JH - 13
JAL - 13
ZU - 9
UTJ - 8
Liberman - 7
Shas - 7
Meretz - 7
Kachlon - 7

some counterfactuals: Ashkenazi with Lapid doesn't change much, Ya'alon joining Lapid boosts him to 30, Ya'alon by himself polls 8 (but mainly from the left).

Labour lead by Ashkenazi:
Likud - 24
YA - 22
Labour - 15
JH - 11
JAL - 13
UTJ - 8
Liberman - 8
Meretz - 6
Kachlon - 6

Likud led by Bennet:
Likud - 29
YA - 27
JAL - 13
ZU - 9
UTJ - 8
Liberman - 7
Shas - 7
Meretz - 7
Kachlon - 7
JH - 6

Labour politics! so the elections to be Labour's General Secretary (with a promised position as 7th on the ballot, considering Labour's dismal state, made it a very appealing position) were held yesterday. The winner lacked 6 votes for the 40% so we'll have a second round next week. Results as I gathered them:
Yaya Fink 39.61% (Yechimovic's former henchman)
Eran Hermoni - 32.38% (Herzog and other establishment figures guy)
MK Michal Biran - 18.33% (former Yechimovic majordomo)
Richard Peres - 9.16% (some random guy)
Aby Benjamin - 0.something% (an outsider)

Fink and Hermoni are going to make it to the next round, I guess Fink is going to clinch it as the Biran voters will sway towards him.

 

[Hnv1]

Labour internal politics*:
Ehud Barak who in the last year started tweeting frantically against Bibi whilst claiming he has no political intentions (what no one believes), will be addressing some Labour internal forum next week (so I've heard) called 'the main stream'. Mainly old Labourites with a military fetish yet still an interesting twist.
Avi Gabbay who recently joined announced his intentions to run for leadership, he's also a very good friend of Ashkenazi, not quite sure what's happening there but Herzog could willingly give up the leadership with some dignifying bargain.
Amir Peretz, another heir presumptive, allegedly had 10K members join since he declared his intention to run for leadership.
my gut instinct tells me most leadership candidates will boot the eternal rent boy Livni as soon as they are elected....

*Outsiders probably wouldn't understand the fascination with Labour politics, it's probably a relic every leftist hold from the days Labour internal politics=Israeli national politics.

Likud news:
Kachlon is set fully prepared to bounce into Likud, his top ministers seem to be starting their primary season there already.
Sa'ar is also alert

Meretz news:
The field of candidates doesn't look to change as each candidate has his own base in the party convention. The Galon-Gilon battle is slowly but steadily killing the party from the inside, every small appointment and procedure becomes a battle in fashion of trots politics. I hope Peretz wins and Gilon could bugger off to be socialist there.

The right wingers are so cowardly, none of them has the guts to pull the trigger on annexation (and have their name on an intifada) so they want good old uncle Trump to give them a vox dei and invite them to annex territories. I think they are going to be dully disappointed, Trump might not mind to do but he's not going to instruct them to do so.   

[Hnv1]

A retreat from Bar Illan speech? Bibi stating the most he's willing to give the Palestinians is a "State minus". I do think that's more close to his honest opinion but the timing is dubious

[Hnv1]

Erel Margalit is a terrible candidate. Ultra capitalist and in favor of a grand coalition with Likud. Right-wing on the economy and right-wing on peace. Who does he appeal to? Who would vote for him?

Swing voters, old and young.

As to his odds, it's an enigma as he doesn't have a clear base but has enough money to recuperate it.

Also I don't think he's ultra capitalist, very Blairite, for increased government spending on infrastructure/health/poor areas, with reasonable wiggle room for free market initiative. His economic policy is not that different from Labour's 90s policy or other current moderate MKs. He was for a coalition last time around he was actually the most vocal opponent of it since the last GE. His view on the peace process is obscure. From what I hear a lot of voters who moved to Lapid find his politics appealing, Peretz and Shelly have no such attraction

[Hnv1]

- Police informs that there additional two criminal investigations against Bibi, one regarding the said purchase of submarines and the other on unspecified offenses for now.
The end is near, this is starting to look like the end of Olmeret on steroids/

- Ayoub Karah (Likud) has been appointed a minister without portfolio, he is by far one of the more comical characters in politics. Eli Cohen (Kulano) was appointed as Minister of Economics.

- Ministry of Justice published a report recommending the decriminalization of marijuana. Minister Shaked surprisingly agreed. Finally some good news I guess

[Hnv1]

- Police informs that there additional two criminal investigations against Bibi, one regarding the said purchase of submarines and the other on unspecified offenses for now.
The end is near, this is starting to look like the end of Olmeret on steroids/

- Ayoub Karah (Likud) has been appointed a minister without portfolio, he is by far one of the more comical characters in politics. Eli Cohen (Kulano) was appointed as Minister of Economics.

- Ministry of Justice published a report recommending the decriminalization of marijuana. Minister Shaked surprisingly agreed. Finally some good news I guess

Was Kahlon the Economics minister anyway, or did Bibi grant Kulanu another ministry? Perhaps in an attempt to stop them from acting against him because of the corruption charges.

He gave it to Kachlon last year after the Deri'i debacle. It's simply a move to get more hands around the government table, why is it happening now? I can only speculate and I think you're right on the money.

[Hnv1]

Well it's all but official, Israel is moving to for decriminalization (sorta) of marijuana use

[Hnv1]

Congrats on 420. I'm sure those people who are barely or not at all able to make ends meet because of decades of inadequate social and housing policies are relieved. (Sorry, this is the cynic in me talking.)

Considering most people persecuted are poor and not the rich kids, this is actually mostly to their benefit.

[Hnv1]

Got a text message from Labour party, new poll:
Margalit- 28%
Peretz- 26%
Avi Gabay (former Environmental Protection Minister who left the Netanyahu government nd joined Labour)- 17%
Herzog- 8%

The actual poll does say Amir Peretz is winning any possible head to head. Shame

As to those figures some say they are fake and it's actually 8/26/28/17 (in the order you specified). I'm not sure what to make of this

[Hnv1]

Congrats on 420. I'm sure those people who are barely or not at all able to make ends meet because of decades of inadequate social and housing policies are relieved. (Sorry, this is the cynic in me talking.)

Considering most people persecuted are poor and not the rich kids, this is actually mostly to their benefit.

Fair point. I'm not opposed to it, to be sure. How often were people still prosecuted (hopefully not persecuted... ) for it?

Several hundred cases per year. But the real revelation now is that recreational use at home is completely legitimate. Police acted quite freely in entering homes without warrants (especially in deprived areas), so all in all it's a very good policy toward working class people.

Years ago I used to smoke every now and then (though THC was never my favorite kick) and police picked me up for possession of 1g, I was a well spoken law student so it ended with me being registered in some police database for a year. A Russian friend of mine at the time who came from a poor family was also lifted on similar charge, he ended up being indicted, sentenced to 6 months of public service and had a criminal record...

[Hnv1]

Got a text message from Labour party, new poll:
Margalit- 28%
Peretz- 26%
Avi Gabay (former Environmental Protection Minister who left the Netanyahu government nd joined Labour)- 17%
Herzog- 8%

The actual poll does say Amir Peretz is winning any possible head to head. Shame

As to those figures some say they are fake and it's actually 8/26/28/17 (in the order you specified). I'm not sure what to make of this

Got a new text from Labour. Now they're presenting a new polls, or the same one, with different results:
Peretz- 32.5
Yachimovich- 17.5
Gabay- 16.7
Margalit- 11.5
Herzog- 10.4
Omer Barlev- 4.3

Weird. I guess if they don't run, Barlev supporters will mainly go to Margalit and Yachimovich supporters to Peretz. He seems almost inevitable here. Seems like voters of all parties have a painfully short memort.

Yes I saw the PDF, polling 400 Labour members is a fickle affair. I think we'll have a clearer picture in June. Yet it's quite clear it's over for Herzog, I wonder if he'll have enough dignity to poll a Gabriel and step down (after he bad mouthed Margalit, and his hate to Shelly and Peretz I can't see him stepping down for either).

[Hnv1]

Ehud Barak is almost dead on back to Labour. He will join a number of bland ex generals who announced their intentions the past few days.
Labour general secretary elections are overת Hermoni managed to win the second round with 50.5% over Fink's 49%. Hermoni was backed by everyone part for the Shelly camp. He will be designated number 7 on the list so he will be an MK next time around.

Fro absolute denial to going Ardogan on the media clear and increasing signs of panic are discernible in Bibi's remarks on his criminal problems. He's going down and it's going to be a dirty fall

[Hnv1]

Yechimovic will run to head the Histadrut (national workers' federation) which means she will not run to be Labour's leader even if she loses. If she wins in May she will forgo her Knesset seat. It will be an interesting match to see who secures the electric company union and the dockers union.

[Hnv1]

The Knesset just passed the settlements bill: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38888649

Shame on all those involved. The "brave" ones on the right who know it's unconstitutional and against IHL but still legislated it so they could have a double profit - legislating and shouting at the Supreme Court when they void it. Shame on Bibi who didn't want this but his criminal investigations are making him very easy to maneuver by Bennet and by his own MKs. Shame on the courts who are going to void it instead of signalling to the right wing legislature that if they want to swim in sh**t they're not going to clean them up.

Anyway I speculate that Bibi's indictments are quite near (my peers who are criminal lawyers are dead certain of it), a wounded animal is always more dangerous so I expect some escalation with Hamas\PA very very soon.

[Hnv1]

All talk, no action by the Israeli right, as always. This would be amazing theoretically, but the courts are going to declare it null and void anyway. Everything for PR, misleading voters, and blaming everything on the courts... and all that while the Knesset can simply decide to add new justices. If only the government wanted actual right-wing change instead of simply posturing while actually being chickens.

That said... why are Israeli courts so left-wing while right-wing governments have been in power since the early 2000s save for a few exceptions?

There are genuinely 2 left wing justices in the court, the court chief is actually right wing but as with most jurists the underlying ideology they all share is liberalism (more of the classic one).

[Hnv1]

There is nothing democratic about unelected activist judges overturning decisions made by elected politicians. The argument that ending Israeli courts' excessive powers would somehow end liberal democracy doesn't fly with me either, as I live in a country that is generally viewed as a liberal democracy yet courts here don't have the right to constitutional review. Politicians have the last say and that's what's really democratic.

Hnv1's answer is unconvincing to me, though I obviously believe most people with a law degree in Israel are left-leaning. Time to put a bunch of Itamar Ben-Gvirs on the court to restore the balance, I'd say. Courts overturning a law like this would increase support with the public to make the changes necessary (though Ben-Gvir remains unlikely, lol). If a more right-wing PM takes over after Netanyahu is gone and the right somehow gets a majority without the Kulanu cucks, it can be done.

Well I attended what is considered the most elite law faculty in Israel (and the one most judges attended) and we weren't majority left (though the left and the right tended to drift to the extreme), considering that was the state here it's obviously more to the right in any other law faculty in the country (bar for Tel Aviv). Actually coming to think of it Smutric and Levin both attended my faculty. Perhaps people with law degrees are more left considering the general population but that's a natural phenomena everywhere with higher formal education. Historically the court was centre-right liberal and that didn't change much, as I said of this court there are two justices who are leftists and a similar number of right wingers the rest are bland centrists. The judiciary should not mirror the political landscape, it wasn't like that in the days of the Mapai junta and it shouldn't be like that now.

Comparing Israel and the Netherlands, apples and oranges. As to the mandate of elected representatives I never cared much for it (to the disgust of my friends to the left), I said it once and I'll say it again there's nothing intrinsically valuable in democracy

[Hnv1]

As it seems Livni will take a post as a UN USG, finally a respectable outlet for her. Hatnua will probably merge in some capacity with Labour following this move.