Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

Yawn on the trump 2 states comment, I take his words with nothing but salt.

Back to party politics. All parties like JH/Likud/Labour/Meretz are getting ready for an election.
Some new groups in Likud gained some attention like the Liberals and the new Likudniks. Both plan on getting their men in. Herzog is recruiting a bundle of bland ex-generals to have a "right" looking list. Galon wants open primaries in Meretz, while Gilon and his gilonjugend are suddenly again after they got enough people in as convention delegates.

Elections coming this fall. Stay tuned

[Hnv1]

Elections coming this fall. Stay tuned

Is this for certain? What groups are going to bring down the government? Or will Netanyahu call snap elections? Is he even likely to recontest?

Nothing is certain, but if all sides are getting ready for an election and diverting funds to prepare the reasonable thing to conclude is their estimation must be grounded. Bibi's internal political weakness is easy to spot, there's only so much he can do to please all his partners at once. I expect it to be like WW1 fast and random cause will make it all tumble

[Hnv1]

Yawn on the trump 2 states comment, I take his words with nothing but salt.

Back to party politics. All parties like JH/Likud/Labour/Meretz are getting ready for an election.
Some new groups in Likud gained some attention like the Liberals and the new Likudniks. Both plan on getting their men in. Herzog is recruiting a bundle of bland ex-generals to have a "right" looking list. Galon wants open primaries in Meretz, while Gilon and his gilonjugend are suddenly again after they got enough people in as convention delegates.

Elections coming this fall. Stay tuned

Do you think that Galon will be successful in her attempt? If not, I suspect Meretz is doomed. Galon might resign because of that, as she's putting everything on it.

Probably not, too many of delegates wouldn't want to lose their power but let's wait there's a call for a snap vote in May. If that fails in that case we might see a snap election for a new convention. If that fails I honestly don't see how the party could carry on as a whole, the internal institutions are dysfunctional due to internal strife for almost a year and a half now.

If she fails/Gilon gains the leadership I will resign as a delegate and leave the party

[Hnv1]

Yawn on the trump 2 states comment, I take his words with nothing but salt.

Back to party politics. All parties like JH/Likud/Labour/Meretz are getting ready for an election.
Some new groups in Likud gained some attention like the Liberals and the new Likudniks. Both plan on getting their men in. Herzog is recruiting a bundle of bland ex-generals to have a "right" looking list. Galon wants open primaries in Meretz, while Gilon and his gilonjugend are suddenly again after they got enough people in as convention delegates.

Elections coming this fall. Stay tuned

Do you think that Galon will be successful in her attempt? If not, I suspect Meretz is doomed. Galon might resign because of that, as she's putting everything on it.

Probably not, too many of delegates wouldn't want to lose their power but let's wait there's a call for a snap vote in May. If that fails in that case we might see a snap election for a new convention. If that fails I honestly don't see how the party could carry on as a whole, the internal institutions are dysfunctional due to internal strife for almost a year and a half now.

If she fails/Gilon gains the leadership I will resign as a delegate and leave the party

Out of interest, in that case, who would you vote for, or where would you go politically?

Hard to tell, I'll either vote JAL/Labour, there's no other viable alternative

[Hnv1]

So Ayelet Shaked appointed some right-wingers to the Supreme Court today.

More complicated than it appears, I will write post in it tomorrow(as I also appeared before two of them). The change is generally cosmetic

[Hnv1]

So Ayelet Shaked appointed some right-wingers to the Supreme Court today.

*warning a boring post on the judiciary, you may avoid this post*

well I would say it may be headlined in the media but false. Shaked played a smart negotiation but bottom line of the 4 only justice Mintz is a right winger. The two right wingers of her choice Sapir and Khan were barred by the rest of the committee (she probably used them to get in a stronger position anyway).
justice Vilner (who I had the privilege to appear before) is religious but she's a mild conservative not all that different than those on the court now. Shaked wanted Winograd of Jerusalem but had to settle for her. justice Elron (who I appeared before but can't say it was a privilege) was boosted by Kachlon, doesn't strike me as all that right at all. The last one Kara is a christian from Jaffa.

If the court moved to the right it's by an inch, and it was moving to the right anyway since 2008.

Shaked did a strategic mistake though, she created bad blood with justice Hayot who is going to be the chief justice for the next 8 years (and also one of the courts only true leftists). Payback will come in various forms. 

[Hnv1]

Kachlon is the first to get hit, Hayot made noises of canceling his 3rd home taxation bill today due to a flawed legislation procedure. (she sat with the two right wing justices on this which is interesting so I think he managed to piss off more than just her)

[Hnv1]

Like Cabel had any political future to begin with...

Omer bar lev is also running for Labour leadership, this is getting ridiculous

[Hnv1]

Avi Dichter saying he's going to run against Bibi in the next Likud primaries.
Ya'Alon saying he's forming a new party...political savvy is not a good description of him.
Amiram Levin (another ex general) is running to head Labour, yes another one

[Hnv1]

Avi Dichter saying he's going to run against Bibi in the next Likud primaries.
Ya'Alon saying he's forming a new party...political savvy is not a good description of him.
Amiram Levin (another ex general) is running to head Labour, yes another one

What's the current list of Labour candidates?
Peretz, Margalit, Herzog, Bar Lev, Gabay, Amiram Levin? I guess Cabel won't run after the recordings.

Add Eldad Yaniv, Yom Tov Samia, and the latest prof. Avner Ben Zaken (who is a self pretentious git and a mediocre scholar)

So more pretenders than expected seats.

Currently if I had to rank them by preference then: Margalit, Levin, Bar Lev, Gabay, Samia, Herzog, Yaniv, Ben Zaken, Peretz.

[Hnv1]

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.775331

Marijuana decriminalized. I don't really follow Israeli domestic politics but it's not really surprising to me, considering the amount of relatively open marijuana use I saw there.

Yeah, it's been moving in that direction for quite long. The majority of Israelis seem to be moderately socially liberal, so it's probably a concession to satisfy them without angering the religious parties.

Considering buying weed anywhere outside of tel aviv is usually from a bloke with a black kippah and a Shas look I doubt they care that much...
The true opponents are the we know better than you what's right brigade, usually YA\JH voters

[Hnv1]

Ya'alon's new party has the potential to hurt YA and Kulanu more than Likud.

Yeah, these "brave moderate hero!!!1111" parties almost never do any great harm to the right wing. Though, with that said, without Kulanu Netanyahu wouldn't have enough to form a right wing coalition.

Ya'alon isn't moderate at all. He's to the right of Netanyahu. How could he possibly be talking about an alliance with Yesh Atid?

Like that matters in Israel...Benny Begin and Rivlin are "moderate" though stand to the fringe of the right. political alliance here stand on other grounds than ideological

[Hnv1]

Rivlin is only "to the right of Netanyahu" if you view a one-state solution as inherently more right-wing than a two-state solution, which is pretty far-fetched. Surely someone "to the fringe of the right" would not cancel a concert because the artist had triggered people on the left by dropping a truth bomb, and surely someone "to the fringe of the right" would pardon Elor Azaria. Rivlin can hardly be considered to be right-wing at all. I also have no idea how Ya'alon could be considered to be to the right of Netanyahu. But yes, it is undoubtedly true that political alliances in Israel (much like in many other countries), and within the Likud in particular, are based more on personal strategic alliances than on ideological grounds.

The common perspective views the far right and the far left as going to a one state solution (with different approach). As political standings are situated on several dimensions it is futile to speak of more to the left or more the right as a strict and literal truth. But if i must then in the shallow way of talking they are more to the right.

[Hnv1]

Meretz convention rejected Galon's proposal for open primaries.  New leadership elections announced Avalon vs Gilon.

Derii has been making weird break the government noises, I wonder if he's just the messenger...

Ya'Alon to start a new party, Levi-Aboksis to start a new party, Feiglin's new party will hold open primaries

[Hnv1]

Meretz convention rejected Galon's proposal for open primaries.  New leadership elections announced Avalon vs Gilon.

Derii has been making weird break the government noises, I wonder if he's just the messenger...

Ya'Alon to start a new party, Levi-Aboksis to start a new party, Feiglin's new party will hold open primaries

Looks like the election is coming soon. Any chance Levi-Aboksis changes her mind and joins Ya'Alon or something? We don't need yet another party, and she'll never pass the mark anyway. She's just not that great of a politician, just very principled.
Also, Avalon? Did you mean Galon or did I miss an awful lot in my school's annual trip?

Sorry, of course Galon.
As the polls look dismal for Ya'alon he may try to recruit her. But her electoral chances are better than his as I see it.

Jewish Home to have leadership primaries soon as well. Bennet vs. 2 nobody conservative rabbis

[Hnv1]

You are off the mark, Likud has been trying to pick fights with junior partners for weeks now. This is Bibi's strategy, he does not want an indictment served.

If Lapid and Kachlon had any wits to them they would have let Herzog form a government for several months to see Bibi out, but there's no chance Isra-Trump Lapid will agree

[Hnv1]

How does picking fights prevent an indictment?

No Indictment will be served if there's an election going on, and a resounding victory pressures the prosecution not to serve it.

[Hnv1]

You are off the mark, Likud has been trying to pick fights with junior partners for weeks now. This is Bibi's strategy, he does not want an indictment served.

If Lapid and Kachlon had any wits to them they would have let Herzog form a government for several months to see Bibi out, but there's no chance Isra-Trump Lapid will agree

Yeah, I kept getting these crazy news updates whenever I  could check my phone, but this current thing seems to be the most explicit.

Meanwhile, Transportation Secretary Israel Katz (who already clashed with Bibi on the Shabbat train maintenance works) becomes the first Likud minister to speak up against Netanyahu, saying that going to elections because of the Broadcasting Corporation is mad.

He's actually quite clever, Bibi is as we speak on a plane to the PRC, the first things his staffes are going to see when off the plane would be quite alarming...

The trio of Herzog, Kachlon, Rivlin will do everything in their power to try form an alternative government, even a minority one

[Hnv1]

Both Bennet ad Lieberman oppose an early election. Bibi is in quite a pickle

[Hnv1]

Both Bennet ad Lieberman oppose an early election. Bibi is in quite a pickle

Bennet? Odd. Why would he not want an election where he's likely to gain?

He and Shaked are sitting in good positions and want to have more impact (especially with 2 more nominations for the supreme court next year), and he would rather go to an election from the opposition on some right wing platform not the media.
Liberman wants more time as MoD to consolidate is position as elder statesman.

question is what will they do if Bibi seems determined to pull the trigger, will they support a Kachlon temporary government?

[Hnv1]

Both Bennet ad Lieberman oppose an early election. Bibi is in quite a pickle

Bennet? Odd. Why would he not want an election where he's likely to gain?

He and Shaked are sitting in good positions and want to have more impact (especially with 2 more nominations for the supreme court next year), and he would rather go to an election from the opposition on some right wing platform not the media.
Liberman wants more time as MoD to consolidate is position as elder statesman.

question is what will they do if Bibi seems determined to pull the trigger, will they support a Kachlon temporary government?

I think Lapid will really be the determining factor here. I don't see Bennet and most of the Labour MKs ever sitting in the same government, while Lapid has been rescinding his anti-Haredi rhetoric. The problem is that he probably wants an election while the momentum is with him.

Also Peretz and other Labour contenders might thwart it...stupid people who can't think strategically. Peretz and Lapid with their massive bloated ego especially

[Hnv1]

So is an election definitely happening this year? Things seem to have quieted down.

I'll put my money on this autumn. Or the very least early 2018

[Hnv1]

Poll of Labour's cadre:
Gabay 22%
Peretz 21%
Margalit 10%
Bar Lev 10%
Herzog 7% (lol)
Undecided 29%

Second round
Gabay 55%
Peretz 45%

Shame on margalit but at least Peretz misses out

[Hnv1]

Sorry to be a pain, but what factions/ideologies/positions etc. do the labour candidates represent?

The differences are sometimes cosmetic rather than genuine, it's really a personality contest and not so much a battle of factions.
Peretz - Socialist (or more left wing economically) also dovish
Gabay - bland centrist for all I could detect, talking about the personal traits of leadership not positions
Bar Lev - bland ex general with some peace plans, appeals to old voters
Margalit - New Labour, as Blairite as one could get
Herzog - does he even know?

[Hnv1]

Primaries:
JH primaries looking quite calm but I suspect Bennet will take around 70-75% of the votes this time instead 90+.

Labour primaries: Margalit launched his campaign (which looks best by my books), and ol'Peretz started a smear campaign against Gabbay. Bar Lev will probably drop out later to support Gabbay. Selectorate was reduced to 48K after thousands of faux members Peretz registered were wiped out.

Politics:
Supreme Court authorized Tel Aviv's city council by-law allowing some grocery stores to open on Saturdays, Deri'i who dragged his feet on the matter is "furious" and Shas+UTJ+JH are demanding a law to reverse the ruling and "defend the Sabbath". An excellent mine to blow up the coalition. Only Lieberman voiced his support of the ruling and Kachlon definitely won't fight over this topic. In addition, unlike last time no one else could form a government as neither Herzog or Lapid could agree to give the religious parties what they want. Bibi Must be delighted.