Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

He seems to be drawing 50-50 from both center-left and right. He's definitely a right winger, but is there a possibility he might form a coalition with labor because economic issues (it's the main reason he's relevant, after all)

Kachlon is not left-wing on economics. far from that. He started his way in the old Liberal party and if you keep tabs on what he say he's proposing mainly Liberal reforms to reduce product prices not so much the new deal people on the left want. He's like Lapid on economics with a bit more intelligence.
The difference is that Lapid had some left wing members in his party for balance and no commitment to Likud, Kachlon will have none.

[Hnv1]

it's the newspaper battle we should notice. Israel Hayom will surely support Bibi question is what will maariv, yediot, and haaretz do. and for that matter the economic papers (Globes, theMarker). Positive coverage is essential in Israel.
I think the new Maariv will support Liberman (fits their stance - right wing with no liking og Bibi). Yediot is a riddle ATM, their darlings Lapid and Livni don't seem to be able to lift themselves up and Herzog hadn't got enough appeal. Haaretz will again probably back Meretz whilst slandering it.

[Hnv1]

New Knesset Channel poll:
Likud: 22
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
Shas: 8
UTJ: 8
Kachlon: 7
Hadash: 5
Hatnuah: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Balad: 4

So it seems that (thus far) the happenings in Jerusalem have not affected the electoral landscape at all.

One more thing: Since Bibi tends to underperform his polls, is it a legitimate possibility that we could see Bayit Yehudi with the largest faction? If so, what happens?

The law says that after the election all party leader go to the president and recommend who they think should form the government. In this case I don't think that part for Likud and maybe Shas\UTJ with enough cash anyother party will agree to sit in a JH government (Labour in no way and I think not even  YA). Even if Likud end up second largest in this case  I think everyone else will try to form  a different coalition ranging from Liberman to Meretz.

[Hnv1]

Is there a reason Lieberman and Kachlon would not back Bennett?

Also, what is your take on the likelihood of a Bennett victory?

doubt it, JH will no doubtly surge but if it will appear as if they might get the most votes I'm sure there will be tactical voting that will put another party at the top (probably Likud or one of the centre left).

Lieberman is craving the PM position, he wants to heir Bibi as the right wing leader and crowning Bennet won't help there. Regarding Kachlon, he is right wing but I think he will prefer a more legitemate centre coalition (no economic reforms when you're getting boycotted around the world).

[Hnv1]

I've seen a couple of articles about Lieberman become Prime Minister under a centrist government (presumably YB YA Labor, Linvi and Kahlon).

http://www.timesofisrael.com/fed-up-with-netanyahu-some-look-to-liberman/

there had been talks about an alternative coalition to boot Bibi out before or after the election. I assume they will include Liberman but as he is not the head of the largest party from the bloc nor will he be I can't see him becoming PM.

[Hnv1]

So what exactly is the issue with the 2015 budget that it's so controversial a new election must be called?

(Have obviously seen today's news, but beyond general sadness there's little to be said about it).

Well there will be a huge deficit in the 2016 because of the Gaza war. everyone understand this will be the last budget before the election. Lapid tries to move most of the problems to the 2016 budget (bad) but he's also trying to do some needed reforms in this one (good).
A reform to the health system to try to reverse the negative effects of private health care is being opposed by Liberman for said reasons.
The JNF, which has a huge budget not being monitored by anyone and is used for jobs for politicos (mainly by Lberman and the Likud), was suppose to give the state around a billion NIS in return for no actual reform or nationalisation. Not the best solution but at least something. The right for obvious reasons is trying to stop this.
Lapid has a plan for no VAT in the purchase of the first flat (which is opposed by well everyone from left to right), he is determined to pass it and he says that otherwise he's leaving the coalition. Bibi opposes this on economic reasons (I have to say I agree with him), Liberman is just a dirty politian, Bennet won't help pass it unless the 'Jewish state and nation act' is passed.

Meanwhile, a third intifada is starting to roll on the horizon. I think this government will survive for a bit longer but by midsummer  we'll see an election.

[Hnv1]

Looks like they're edging closer and closer to the Third Intifada. Not good at all.

If Hamas start launching rockets again, they're done; Israel will go full invasion of Gaza.

I don't think this directly leads to rocket fire from Gaza. Unlike with the kidnappings, we a) know who did it and b) know they were lone wolves. There won't be any rounding up West Bank Hamas Operatives (unless Bibi goes full on insane)

hnv1, how much do you think this hurts the left?

define the left...Meretz will probably rise a bit. Labour on the other hand...Herzog is doing everything right but is still failing. If they get some Ex-generals to their ballot and Livni and such would be willing to be under his leadership they might score a fair result (around 20).
Diskin who flirted a bit with entering the game said he's out for this one, which is a bit of blow for Herzog who has no 'defence' angle on his list ATM.
It's an interesting situation, Bibi is very much unpopular as ever yet no one seems to be able to look like a valid candidate against him.

Regarding the Intifada. The second one saw a strong surge for the right (with understandable reasons at the time), but the third one looks like it will be more similar to the first one which tilted the balance a bit to the left. With the dynamics of a rolling intifada there's not much a PM can do to stop it or not look like he can't control it (like Barak). Bibi is in serious fear of losing his Mr security image. The question is who will challenge it? Bennet or someone from the centre?

[Hnv1]

Government passed the 'Jewish Nation' act. on Wed. it goes to the knesset, by law all coalition members are obliged to vote yes. Lapid andd Livni announced they and their parties will oppose what will mean Bibi will have to fire them.

[Hnv1]

If this is Elkin's bill, then no way it passes. With Livni and Lapid voting nay, Bibi would need to a) hold all Likud MKs (not guaranteed- Livnat abstained on the cabinet vote) and b) get all the Haredi MKs (even less likely).

Bibi must be confident that the elections will go his way if he's pulling off this stunt.

Haredi MKs don't usually vote on constitutional laws from what I recall.
If YA and Livni oppose the bill will fall with the aid of the opposition.

[Hnv1]

If this is Elkin's bill, then no way it passes. With Livni and Lapid voting nay, Bibi would need to a) hold all Likud MKs (not guaranteed- Livnat abstained on the cabinet vote) and b) get all the Haredi MKs (even less likely).

Bibi must be confident that the elections will go his way if he's pulling off this stunt.

Haredi MKs don't usually vote on constitutional laws from what I recall.
If YA and Livni oppose the bill will fall with the aid of the opposition.

Shas would probably vote for it but not UTJ since UTJ is still opposed to Zionism as an ideology, I believe that's why they don't ever take positions in the cabinet (although they accept deputy positions).

Shas won't vote on a bill saying a Jewish state is nothing else then a religious Jewish state. and it doesn't matter 95% of their voters are for it

With the coming Likud elections and maybe general ones as well Bibi is really breaking to the right

[Hnv1]

Regarding the Haaretz poll it was quite unique that it used the new threshold and it concluded undecided (29 seats according to it are up for grabs).

More from it:
Who is best fitted to be PM?
Bibi 35% (42% last poll); Herzog 17% (12%); Liberman 8% (11%); Lapid 7% (4%); Bennet 6% (11%); don't know 27% (20%).

Herzog is rising a bit and I think Labour are being under polled. If he plays his cards right he might be able to actually challange Bibi.

[Hnv1]

Is most of Herzog's support coming from Meretz, or what?

The core is Meretz and Labour but I think he's getting a bit of a swing from the centre and Labour are having YA phase - they are circling 14 at the polls but come election day they will swing up like what happened to Lapid.

[Hnv1]

Bibi sacks Livni and Lapid. The Knesset will need to vote to dissolve and then an election will be held in 90-120 days

[Hnv1]

SCoJ declares the tenure of Litzman as Deputy Minister of Health with full ministerial power unconstitutional and orders a full time minister appointed in 60 days. UTJ will probably embrace this (according to some journalists) and for the first time they will have a minister in title.

Interesting developments out of this:
- Ashkenaz Haredi "anti-zionists" stance is slowly and steadily breaking with the extremist faction under Rabbi Oirbach forming a new party called Bnei Torah I expect with break away soon with lots of younger members of the community getting closer to Zionism and voting JH
- Bibi's plan of shipping Danon to the UN and appointing one of his trustees Begin\Hanegbi to a ministerial position is thwarted (unless the change they law again to allow the cabinet to expand)
- Lapid has a small victory here (his party is responsible for the appeal) sadly he's looking more like an opposition leader than Herzog
- Ehud Barak is making some noise lately, it's always important to notice what this snake is up to.

[Hnv1]

I take Israeli polls with 7 tonnes of salt

Likud leadership:
Channel 10 claims Jerusalem mayor Nir Barket is considering a run for Likud leadership and had thousands enrolled to the likud. unlikely, Bibi doesn't seem to be set on leaving anytime soon, Barket is not that popular among Likud politicos and he will most likely just try to get himself high up on the Knesset list.

Labour leadersship:
still no news, Holdai is undecided, so is Ashkenazi (whom Lapid is wooing quite aggressively). Yechimovic might try to regain leadership, Cabel announced he respects Herzog's leadership and Margalit is waiting just around the corner for his day. Long time expected runned Yuval Diskin announced he's out of the political field for several years.

Meretz and JH had their leadership contests prior to the election and no other party have any interior democratic process 

[Hnv1]

Yeah, but their tunnels are even better this time.  Meanwhile, 37,000 tons of concrete sits in a warehouse, about to expire.  Like 95% of Gaza's problems, Hamas is the root, but like 95% of Gaza's problems, useful idiots in the west will blame Israel.

No matter who is to blame a total collapse of Gaza will have serious consequences. People will have to go somewhere - either Egypt, Israel or - if blocked by their neighbours - they will try to reach Europe. So this is another refugee time bomb waiting to happen.

They'll be swarming the Israeli fence, a true leadership would have understood the necessity in Gaza's redevelopment and allowed for a port to be formed. And lets not forget Sisi's proposal to give away some Egyptian swathes of territory to tackle this problem but current Israeli leadership is busy fighting Obama at congress

[Hnv1]

Yeah, but their tunnels are even better this time.  Meanwhile, 37,000 tons of concrete sits in a warehouse, about to expire.  Like 95% of Gaza's problems, Hamas is the root, but like 95% of Gaza's problems, useful idiots in the west will blame Israel.

No matter who is to blame a total collapse of Gaza will have serious consequences. People will have to go somewhere - either Egypt, Israel or - if blocked by their neighbours - they will try to reach Europe. So this is another refugee time bomb waiting to happen.

They'll be swarming the Israeli fence, a true leadership would have understood the necessity in Gaza's redevelopment and allowed for a port to be formed. And lets not forget Sisi's proposal to give away some Egyptian swathes of territory to tackle this problem but current Israeli leadership is busy fighting Obama at congress

It is rare for a leader to offer to cede territory voluntarily. How much was he willing to give away?

The exact scope was unclear (or just hadn't been published) but that ship had sailed they have new plans for Egyptian Rafih area

[Hnv1]

To be honest, I don't think there's going to be any serious moves towards a peace settlement until the current Israeli PM leaves the political scene.

Israeli society has shifted to the right, it's not just a Netanyahu thing. I would bet a lot of money that the next Likud leader will be further to the right (with regard to the conflict) than Netanyahu.

True, more accurately religion is a bigger part for larger swathes of Israeli society. But I would note that despite this shift to the right a majority of Israelis would still support a viable 2 state solution.

regarding the forecast for the future, I don't think someone to the right of Bibi could be elected (he wouldn't be able to form a coalition), I think some centre figure with a strong emphasis on Jewish identity would win - a form of soft Bibi sadly I think this man is Lapid

[Hnv1]

Holdai (Tel Aviv mayor) is warming up on the sideline, earlier this week he sent a letter to Labour members and Herzog urging him to hold the leadership elections soon. Amir Peretz returned (Again) to Labour while rumours are he's planning to return to his old seat as head of the Histadrut. Most of the "PLP" is pro-Herzog even the former Yechimovic majordomo Michal Biran is supporting him. Unless Ashkenazi runs I can't see any of the current pretenders beating him.

Their party convention is happening next week and I smell there will be more to it than electing a new head to the JNF

[Hnv1]

Is Yachimovich looking unlikely to run herself?

Ambiguous about her intentions, but I think she's will be dumb to do so

[Hnv1]

So a small scale intifida is rolling since last week with the focal point of tension being as always around the Old Town of Jerusalem. riots spread across the west bank and even in some Israeli-Arab settlements. Government moves so far: increased use of house demolition and administrative arrests; limiting Muslim access to the temple mount; banning Israeli politicians from entering the mount complex. I'll reserve my judgement on the situation for now.

Politically: Bibi has been attracting fire from the right with members of his cabinet taking part in anti-government protests (I know absurd) demanding firm hand. Abbas speech at the UN is raising concerns among the security establishment regarding the future coordination with the PA (and its very existence); Herzog is proving yet again that he is no PM material.

All things considered I see a very "warm" summer starting next may (no one likes winter wars and conflicts in the ME)

[Hnv1]

We have a change in the Knesset, Daniel Atar was chosen as the next head of the Jewish National Fund, and will be replaced by Yael Cohen Paran.

 Yael comes originally from the Green Movement, which unsuccessfully ran on its own in 2009, in 2013 it ran with Livni's Hatnuah with a representative of the party placed at number 13 (Hatnuah ended up with just 6 seats). In 2015 Yael was the representative of The Green Movement in Livnis party, which then merged with Labour to form the Zionist Union. Yael was placed at number 25 but the Zionist Union only got 24 seats, so she was left out until now.

Yael will presumably focus on environmental issues as that has always been what she dealt with so far. She was at one point the leader of the anti road 6 movement (which thankfully lost, road 6 is great).

1. Kakal is not identical with the JNF, it's two separate legal bodies with affinity (a bit of an elaborate legal construction) so chairman of Israel-based JNF is better suited.
2. Good and bad. Good: Atar is a out of the Knesset, he's a little corrupt politico of local government from the right section of Labour. Bad: Atar will maintain the JNF's corruption and misconduct (he won Biton, a reformer)
3. Yael, despite her opposition to highway 6, will be an excellent addition to the house

Part for Livni and Hasson the rest of the lot are natural for Labour and even Meretz. Peretz left back for Labour and rumours he might try to regain leadership

[Hnv1]

Former president Isaac Navon passed away (93) this morning. he was a very popular president and he manged to force Begin's government to create a special inquiry committee to the Sabre and Shatilla events. In 84 he returned to politics and there was talks of him running against Peres (and as a popular unifying figure breaking the Likud-Labour deadlock of the 80s) but in a rare cooperation of Peres and Rabin he was hushed aside. Remained a lifelong Labour supporter and placed 120 in the last elections.

One of the few almost-best PMs in the what-if scenarios.

[Hnv1]

Looks like Liberman is still pretty popular. Staying out of government was a good strategy? What is YB polling right now?

he's as popular as security tension lasts and that's with people who won't vote for him come election day.

A poll last week on PM preferences one on one with BB had LTG Gantz the only one beating him and carry votes from the right 44% to BB 32%
BB beat the rest
Herzog 28% BB 51%
Lapid 32% BB 46% (I would actually rather have BB than that dimwit)
Ashkenazi 29% BB 41%
Diskin 30% BB 39% (my personal favorite of the bunch)

Alas, Gantz can't compete till 2018 but I fully expect Labour politicos to dethrone Herzog soon

[Hnv1]

Who's next on the list? Isn't it the Third Temple guy?

former MK Avi Wortzman, seemed fairly right win but not a nutter in his last term when he was also deputy minister of education.

I'm happy Magal is out he was a twat along with Gal and their both out now