Israeli General Election 2013

[Hnv1]

About 90% of Hadash voters are Are Arab. I don't think the differences between voting Hadash and Balad are very ideological, but rather are more personality based.

you obviously haven't spoken to many Balad or Hadash voters. Hadash gets roughly 10K Jewish vote across the country (though in 2009 they nicked some votes from Meretz and got 13K Jewish votes cast to them). This time Meretz and Da'am will both dig into Hadash Jewish and Arab strength.

5# in Meretz's list is Isawi Farig from the triangle region and he is aiming to bring 60K arab votes to Meretz.

I'm not sure in what way you are disagreeing with me here

Maybe with the "not very ideological" bit?

He should expand on the differences between them then, I admit that the Arab parties are those that I know the least about.

So in general Hadash voters are either urban Arabs (from the large Israeli cities) or from the large Arab towns, mostly educated to a greater degree than in the other Arab parties and way more reformist in their general outlook on Arab society. Though elements of Hadash are not that rhetorically different from Balad (especially in the TARBUT division of Hadash), the presence of the ICP remains the core ideological element that opposes Balad (Leftist joint Hebrew-Arabic cooperation to the brute pan-Arabism of Balad).

And in contrast to general belief, Hadash and the ICP in it drifted from their Leninist stance to more mainstream socialist ideas. The revolutionary zeal kind of died with the USSR. The main attraction for a lot of leftist Hebrews I talked with is MK Dov Hanin, who is highly regarded for his work in the left, unlike their leader Mohamad Barka who gets nothing but disdain for his nationalist comments at time and his support for Assad (which will cost him left votes to Da'am).

Arab inner politics are fascinating as they remind me of a Sholem Aleichem Eastern European Jewish shtetl stories; with their petty feuds and frequent reconciliations. The intense tendency for factionalism is a joint illness of both Jews and Arabs here.

I recommend read Uda Basharat - Chutzot Zatunia, it's a rather comical novel portraying an election campaign in a small Arab town to familiarize you with Arab politics

[Hnv1]

A hypothetical poll from mako in the case that Israel returned to a separate vote for PM.

Knesset:
Likud Beitenu: 23
JH-NU: 17
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 14
The Movement: 12
Shas: 11
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Am Shalem: 3

PM:
Bibi: 37%
Livni: 18%
Bennet: 12%
Shelly: 12%
Lapid: 4%
Deri: 4%
Eldad: 4%
Mofaz: 3%
Galon: 1%
other: 5%

Are the first numbers a real poll for the Knesset? Because if it is, that is one hell of a drop for LB -- 23 seats is less than Likud got last time on its own, and Bennett is now in second -- if that is a legit poll and that trend continues another week, Bennett could totally emerge leader of the biggest right-wing party.

It's a hypothetical poll in which Israel returned to directly electing its PM

[Hnv1]

Can danny or hnv (or anyone else who knows) explain the Israeli religious categories to me? Some like secular and haredi are obvious, but what do "national religious" and "traditionalist" mean?

Well I'll try:
 
National-Religious/Religious Zionism - nicknamed "knitted yarmulkes". In the early days of Zionism when the haredi majority population rejected it and the Socialist and secular Zionists were the dominate force in Zionism, came a man called Rabbi Cook (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Isaac_Kook) who integrated Zionism with religion.  He was the father of this movement and his preaching is still a major factor in its ideological tendencies.   In general (I wouldn't call myself an expert of NRs as I view them as a danger and catastrophe for our society), they believe in the imminent redemption of the Jewish people through the foundation of the State of Israel and the "revival" of the "land-work" relations of the Jewish people with their land.

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After 1967 the NRs were the forefront of Jewish settlement in the occupied territories and they experienced what one may describe as a "great messianic awakening". If by then NR party Mafdal was simply a quite member of each coalition with no particular political lean; after 1967 they drifted strongly to the right. Most settlers are NRs and an overwhelming majority of hardcore-settlers are NRs (though from more radical branches such as Rabbi Dov Lior's crew). They are generally (or were) less strict about following religious commandment than their haredi counterparts, though in recent years they had drifted in the religious-zealous direction as well.

Traditionalist – is a broad umbrella term for Israelis with no official religious definition. They keep religious commands loosely, and their faith is usually oriented to their respect for Jewish tradition. You can find them attending synagogues or simply keeping kosher, it's more of a self-definition thing. I would estimate the vast majority of traditionalists are of Sephardi ancestry and vote Likud.
  

[Hnv1]

Shelly today announced she will either be PM or 'Natenyahu's most loyal opposition "

Recent poll reshet B:
Likud - 35
Labour - 18
JH+NU - 18
Shas - 8
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Livni - 6
Otzma Isr. - 6
Hadash - 4
Ra'sm - 4
Balad - 3

[Hnv1]

Do I understand correctly that support for JH-NU grows at the expense of Likud Beiteinu?

Yes, and also by first voters who don'y fully comprehend what Benet is proposing and it looks hype for them to vote for him (before him Lapid was on that wave)

[Hnv1]

Lapid has promised not to sit in a right-haredi-Lapid coalition and I think that such a coalition would be unlikely. Then again, politicians often don't keep their promises.

Lapid will not survive in opposition. He's not a legislature, nor does he has any agenda he can promote from the opposition's benches, it will only speed up his party's disintegration

[Hnv1]

Interesting things happening this weekend:
- After Shelly's declaration that Labour will either form the government or head the opposition, Livni says she'll meet with her and try forming a block against Likud.
- Lapid was anticipated to join but of course he took the cowards way out saying he want's to "moderate the next government"
- Former head of the Shabak (kinda like MI5) gives a huge interview in which he attacks Barak and Netanyahu as unworthy and motivated by narrow motives. He goes on insisting that they are not the individuals Israel can trust in this delicate times with the Iranian nuclear programme and the Palestinian peace talks.

[Hnv1]

Why has Likud been steadily dropping? They started at 40 and are now at 32... pretty soon they'll be back where they started, below 30.

Considering that at the last election Likud and YB together had 42 seats, it was 40 smthg where they started. Having 32 seats between the two is pretty damn bad.

Don't forget Lieberman already states that following the election the union is off (so Likud will stay with around 22 seats at best)

[Hnv1]

Channel 10 poll from yesterday:

Likud - 35
Labour - 17
JH - 14
Shas - 12
Lapid - 11
Livni - 7
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Ra'am - 4
Balad -4
Hadash - 3
Kadima - 2

[Hnv1]

I support Israeli construction at  E1, so naturally I support Israeli actions. As for Haaretz, they're full of nonsense, I don't pay them much attention. I imagine HNV will have a very different perspective though.

Very different indeed, I think the Netanyahu régime is doing all in its power to prevent the foundation of a Palestinian state without contemplating the future ramifications of their actions (socially, politically, morally, strategically, and so forth). Furthermore, evacuating a peaceful Palestinian settlement (on private property) whilst rewarding right-wing zealots who invade grounds and form illegal settlements is almost criminal

Interesting poll in Yediut today shows that around 18% are still uncertain who to vote for but they are leaning as follows:
55% - towards no one
13% - Likud
9%- Labour
6% - JH
5% - Livni
5% - Lapid
5%- Meretz
2% - Shas

Another interesting poll is the one on first-time voters in which Lapid's claim of being highly popular with the younger vote is false (Meretz actually doubles his poor figure):
18% - Likud
15% - Labour
14% - JH
13% - Meretz
12% - Shas
7% - Lapid
7% - Rabbi Amnon Yitzhak (god save us from the youth)
5% - green leaf
2% - Otzma LeIsrael
1% - UTJ
1% - green party
5% - undecided  

General poll turns out as follows:
Likud – 33
Labour – 18
JH – 14
Lapid – 11
Shas – 11
Livni – 8
Meretz – 6
UTJ – 5
Kadima -2
Otzma – 2
Hadash – 3
Balad – 2
Ra'am - 3

[Hnv1]

So...(before anyone asks, since KLH is a religious party, this is a right-religious majority over center-left 69-51, but it's dependent on KLH and OLI, both of which Netanyahu would be unlikely to invite into his coalition)...is turnout particularly low among Arab youth? Could some of the more unusual trends (I want to list some, but...really there's nothing not notable in that poll) be explained?

I don't think these polls are good predictors of the future, also, Green Leaf is not left wing, they are libertarian, and would be easily the most right wing economically were they to enter the knesset. Regarding peace/security issues they support a referendum before agreeing to any peace deal.

Here is their platform, it doesn't look left wing at all.

Green Leaf are an interesting set of people they metamorphose every election. Now it's ultra libertarianism once it was social democracy (and let's not forget the joint effort with the holocaust survivors party).

There 40Kish voters are usually first time voters who end up deserting them completely as they mature, GL are a bunch of buffoons (from personal acquaintance I state this)

[Hnv1]

Hey Danny, I had some hard accident last week so using my hands is a bit hard (this is why I made my lovely sister type this). Can you post a tel aviv only map divided to districts?

[Hnv1]

Can you create maps for city wards of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa?

[Hnv1]

Bits by Bits I'll bring more election stats.

Voting in Hashomer Hatzair Kibbutz. HH is the second Kibbuz movement with the Takam, and the more left wing one traditionally support Mapam, which nowadays is a part from Meretz.

Meretz - 36.25%
Labour - 29.05%
Lapid - 14.52%
Livni - 6.81%
Likud - 4.37%
Eretz Hadasha- 1.94%
Habit BaYehudi - 1.84%
Green Leaf - 1.26%
Kadima - 1.17%
Hadash - 0.70%
Am Shalem -0.55%
Others - 1.48%

Interesting trends, Meretz figure dropped a bit (compared to 2006) but general figures for centre-left parties grows stronger.   

[Hnv1]

Weren't Likud and Yisrael Beytenu supposed to vote on a formal merger a month after the election? Did that ever happen? I didn't see any coverage.

After the government is formed it will addressed.

Interesting stuff coming from the new coalition, they want to pass the entry bar in elections for 4% what would force the Arab parties to unite (or maybe even erase Hadash completely), and may cause a bit of havoc.
I woke up with 5 SMSs from people asking me if Meretz will unite with Labour

[Hnv1]

You work for Meretz?

Also, surely they would have to add an exception for minority parties...it would just be terrible PR.

I'm a convention member and long time activist

I would have been happy with MK Garman as MoIA (Interior Affairs), and MK Shelah as the head of the Knesset's Finance Committee. That would have created the needed changes in the interior arena and would have dried the settlements' money tap. But dear Lapid proved again he has more hair products than intellect.

And on a happier note, let the knives in Likud be drawn; there is nothing I love more than seeing their domestic disputes.

[Hnv1]

Cabinet announced today:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-third_government_of_Israel

Yaalon taking Defense for Likud.

Lapid taking finance. Yesh Atid also took Education, Welfare, and Health.

Bennett took Trade/Industry/Labor, Religious Affairs, and Jerusalem Affairs and his co-partyists took Housing and Pensions.

Netanyahu is holding Foreign Affairs for Liberman and YB took Immigrant Absorption, Public Security, Tourism, and Agriculture.

Also, there are rumors that Likud and YB will split into separate parliamentary groups and Netanyahu will abolish Likud primaries (although I'm unsure how he could manage that second part).

For the very first time in Israel we have a economic neo-liberal coalition against a social-democratic opposition. should be interesting.

Today the opposition held a first gathering to determine how they will battle the government when a surprise visitor showed up, booted Speaker of the Knesset Riblin.

[Hnv1]

A blank canvas onto which voters were encouraged to paint whatever they felt like.

Yesh Atid is not really a party in the sense it has no real ideology but for the promotion of its megalomaniac leader, true it has some fine people in there (Germen, Shelah) but on the overall its a manifestation of how politics lost its ideological traits and became a shallow stage for people who seek power.
I dread a day in which Lapid is PM more than I dislike the fact Netanyahu is right now, people like Lapid who cannot grasp the concept of democracy or form actual opinions on matters are the recipe for degeneration and moral and practical collapse .

From day one it was obvious Lapid was just a figure head for the selected few who put him there, like Yediut Aharonot owner, Nony Moses