Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Hnv1]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

Damn.  Any particular reason why the relationship between him and Gal-on was so bad?

By rumours, He thought she (meaning the party) didn't back him enough for the mayor run. And my assumption is she also feared he would try to run against her for leadership considering he's more popular with the general public

Do you think there will be a significant number of people who won't vote for a Meretz without Horowitz? And who do you think is most likely to replace him?

Yes, he was the more mainstream of the MKs and I think some voters will trend Labour due to that.
Also, considering the union of the Arab parties and Hadash some of their voters will trend to Meretz.

who would replace him? I think Uri Zaki (life partner of MK Zandberg) had a really high amount of his supporters elected to the convention and he might be selected. If not than maybe Mossi Raz or Abu Vilan with the support of the Kibbutz vote and Gilon supporters

[Hnv1]

Interior Defence Minister Aharonovic announces his departure from political life as well. Liberman's party is breaking apart it seems

[Hnv1]

So Yisrael Beitenu is running alone this time? Are they willing to only enter into a coalition with Likud, or would they consider one with Labor-Livni et al. ?

Well as I see it:
- he tried breaking centre with the help of Yediot Ahronot
- his party got involved in one of the biggest corruption cases which made him re-break right
- most of the "independent" seniors of his party got tired from taking his sh**t and he got tired from hearing them which explains the departure wave
- now he's floating no where...Maariv and Yediot are trying to promote him but it doesn't seem to be getting to people.
- Lots of the Russian and right wing voters will trend JH with a bit more trending Likud and  I think his ceiling right now is around 6-7

[Hnv1]

Holy crap.

Eitan was supposed to come in first or second. Instead he came in sixth.

On top of that, Shaffir is a Shelly ally who came in second.

I guess if Herzog doesn't become PM, Shelly will be able to re-take leadership.

Not really. She ran as if she's keeping unity and boosting Herzog Similar to Peres to Rabin in the 91 primaries.
I doubt she can gather support for retaking leadership. If Herzog fails I suspect a Diskin, Margalit, Random tri-run

[Hnv1]

Minister Yair Shamir (son of) is the laters senior to be booted of Liberman's list.
Polls are giving him around 6-7 seats right now and I can't help but enjoying his fall.

[Hnv1]

Bibi announces no unity government after the election, brilliant move by him.

[Hnv1]

Elazar Stern previously from the Movement is joining Yesh Atid.

Yair Shamir from Yisrael Beitenu won't run again saying that he can't identify with the parties leftward turn.

With Stern, Piron, and Lipman YA will be aiming hard for the religious light vote. identified as not very devout and more modern with centre-right defence views.

Makhoul indeed ran for leadership but left the race.

[Hnv1]

Ben Caspit, Maariv top columnist who is very anti-bibi and pro-Liberman hinted that with the falling results in polls for Liberman he might quit the race.

[Hnv1]

Elazar Stern previously from the Movement is joining Yesh Atid.

Yair Shamir from Yisrael Beitenu won't run again saying that he can't identify with the parties leftward turn.

With Stern, Piron, and Lipman YA will be aiming hard for the religious light vote. identified as not very devout and more modern with centre-right defence views.

Makhoul indeed ran for leadership but left the race.

Did he drop out to make it a clean choice between a united Arab party and going it alone? Know which side he came down on?

Not sure why he left, I suspact that due to the low support he was going to get. As he is a Maki man more than Hadash I'm sure he's against a wide union and more for a small one with Ta'al

[Hnv1]

So apparently the number 2 seat on the Hadash list is reserved for a woman and the number 3 seat is reserved for a Jew.

Are there any more seats reserved for Jews? I remember looking at their list last time and it looked like there was only maybe 2 other Jewish names besides Khenin and they were both in something like the 90s and 100s.

I suppose this electoral system for having a contest for each seat individually rules out the chance of surprise high up placement of Burg.

Although I'm guessing he gets a symbolic 120th spot.

The 2nd spot was reserved for a Jew but they decided to move to the third to give the second to a womanץ
I looked at the list and saw 4 Jews till the 20th spot and 20 overall

[Hnv1]

Any of those Christians and/or non-Maki members?

I think Ouda is Christian by the last name and the fact he's from Haifa. About Toma I'm not sure, Jabbarin is a muslim. There was a desire to see a druze on the list again though so we might see one a bit lower down the list.

Edit: checked and Abu Ma'aruf is a Druze

Regarding the Maki members...it's a difficult question to answer. Barake for example was a maki member despite the fact his power base was outside of it and he overthrew the Maki chairman (Nafa'a). The organizational mess there is incredible.
I don't think Toma or Jabbarin are communists though

[Hnv1]

Meretz primaries will take place today. Raviv Drucker had an article out that eviscerated the anticipated list that would come out of it, saying that there were no new authoritative faces that could pull voters that way, and specifically brings up the case of Ben Reuven. http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.637639

Personally, I think he does have a point and that somehow the Meretz election structure should be revamped to accommodate outsiders. Maybe open it up to all the party members or reserve one spot in the top five to someone new? Would be interesting to know what hnv1 thinks (as well as how you'll be voting!)

The only real feedback from an actual Israeli is from the Israel fellow at my Hillel. He's center-left and voted for Yesh Atid last election, but he wants Issawi Frej to take the number 3 spot. He likes Zaki but is unsure whether his work as head of B'tselem will turn voters off.

I disagree with drucker on that open primaries are the right system, espcially for a small party. Open primaries allow an unpopular candidate among the base to add lots of people only for it and get elected. Also, in the power structure of Meretz as was see when there were open primaries (2003, 2007) its skews the results to the Kibbutz vote which is a minority among the general voters.

On attracting a "big" name I strongly disagree. Meretz never had big names dropped in (unless you consider 2009 as big) and considering the stable position in polls I don't think it should. I am also very strongly against ex-generals in politics, their net contribution is usually very low and their conduct in political life is rather lame considering the military habits. From the normative prespective I think it is unhealthy for a democracy that every general who leaves the army jumps into politics, Labour can do what they want but Meretz never saw the appeal in the military "language" and I'de like it to continue.

In case drucker forgot last time around we got 3 new names on the list so the system is fine.

My vote is going to Raz, Laski, Zandberg, Gilon, Svirsky, and others. Part for Villan and Bandel I see everyone as a decent candidate.

[Hnv1]

As I gather from his FB page the new leader Odeh says that "if the right wing calls it 'the national camp' and labour call themselves 'the zionist camp' we will couter with 'the democratic camp'"
So I guess there is a new name. I suspact a small trend of voters from them to Meretz nothing significant.

[Hnv1]

Apparently when Trachtenberg was introduced in a campaign rally today, he was met with a chorus of boos. The 2011 protest people aren't forgetting things quickly.

more accurate: Shelly's people didn't like Herzog's pledge to make him treasury sec.

[Hnv1]

Bennet getting fire from the base for adding Ohana (who supported the disengagement).

Eyal Ben Reuven in a sharp move after his candidancy in Meretz did not materialized had been granted the 24th spot in Labour by Livni.

[Hnv1]

Bennet getting fire from the base for adding Ohana (who supported the disengagement).

Eyal Ben Reuven in a sharp move after his candidancy in Meretz did not materialized had been granted the 24th spot in Labour by Livni.

Kalfa has already defected to Yishai's party.

Rather Historic event then! It's the first time for at least 50 years I think the JH (in its forms) will not have a Zvulun!

[Hnv1]

Not the one to judge, but if Ben Reuven really wants a long career in politics, I'm not sure Livni's the one he should be going in with, considering some factors such as what happened to the last two big military men that wen with Livni, and indeed the person whose spot Ben Reuven just took.

I'm sure hnv1 has stronger thoughts than me though.

I don't really mind his departure, as I stated earlier I don't like eg-generals in politics and I especially don't like them in my party. Though it is a bit disrespectful as he was granted a national convention seat about a month ago, but that's them ex-generals they've got an ego bigger than their brain.
I doubt the Livni party will hold after this election, Peretz will probably slide back to Labour at one point and if Ben Reuven wants to continue in politics he will have to do so as well.

It will be interesting to see what he does as an MK (as he's in the 24th spot I doubt he becomes a minister), ex-generals usually fail miserably as MKs.

Odeh is of the Ahmadi sect, a very small muslim sect whose members reside in Haifa.

BTW fun fact: because Likud hadn't held interior elections for years until now, Yoel Hassson was still chairman of Young Likud branch up until 2-3 months ago! that's despite moving 3 parties by then

[Hnv1]

Like the Indian Ahmadis? Weird. Apparently there's only 2000 of them in Israel. Is he ethnically Indian?

Doubt it, Doesn't have Indian traits. I think they originally came from Syria but I'm not sure.

[Hnv1]

Bibi reserves the 11th spot to former minister and son-of Benni Begin

Dani Dayan announces he's leaving JH because of Bennets dirty tricks with the party list

Channel 10 poll had Liberman on 4 yesterday, Karma will be a darling if she makes Liberman stay out because of the threshold he raised

[Hnv1]

20 seats for arab parties will force one of the following:
- Forced coalition between Labour-Likud with the arabs, Meretz, and extreme right in constant opposition. Likely
- Force Labour to consider an historic reach for them as partners (unlikely with current Labour politics and the current moode of Israeli public this government will be highly opposed). less likely
- narrow right wing governments with growing international pressure. Likely

Either way I think the right did not really think through the whole new threshold scheme and this election will have a ripple effect that is going to alter the slumbered political formation we had since the 70s of Jewish right-left divide.

[Hnv1]

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.

So in the spirit of this 'freedom' I'm allowed to walk into any church in America and declare my right to pray there?

Tomer Perisco (Jewish religion scholar) already wrote a great essay about this, they want to pray there as a nationalistic sign of sovereignty, religious freedom has nothing to do with it.

[Hnv1]

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.

So in the spirit of this 'freedom' I'm allowed to walk into any church in America and declare my right to pray there?

Tomer Perisco (Jewish religion scholar) already wrote a great essay about this, they want to pray there as a nationalistic sign of sovereignty, religious freedom has nothing to do with it.

Well if it's a church that was built on top of a synagogue...

It should be like the Hagia Sophia.

"on top of a synagogue"...built on top of ruins soe 600 years later. There is no religious reason to pray there and whoever wants to pray has that wall of Herod's rocks. Let us not forger that the goal of those fanatics is to destroy the muslim temples and rebuild the Jewish ones there, I don't see any reason to encourage them.

[Hnv1]

Will Otzma Yehudit add votes to the list or will people be frightened by its presence?!

They are not really going for any sector that will be frightened by it. They're going for the fringe of the Haredi Sephardi society (poor and right wing), the right wing Hassidis (Habad, and etc.), and those national-religious who view Bennet as too moderate and not religious enough.

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

[Hnv1]

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

I don't know this, but I always assumed that the law was only a problem if the two sides don't agree. If both sides agree would it still be a problem?

Not sure about mutual consent I checked the laws and there's nothing about it. According to the current law (Amend. 39 2012) you need a third of the faction to have it done. They could do a legal trick by splitting 2-2 and then the other half will re-split and leave Marzel alone

[Hnv1]

Herzog is in a pretty rough spot now. Liberman said he won't sit in a centre-left government hence trying to force some sort of unity government with Likud-Labour. Kachlon may dislike (like everybody who ever worked with him) Bibi but he and his base are essentialy Likud through and through. On top of that Shas\UTJ won't sit with Lapid unless the criminal sanctions of the draft law are lifted.

A Labour led centre-left-Haredi government is unlikelier than ever. Oh, and with their attempt to attract soft-right voters they are going to support Zoabi's disqualification (which the SCoJ will undo) and thus pissing off the joint Arab party.

Not the best of week for Labour. I assume they new tactic will be drain as much votes as the can from YA and Meretz so they can come to Bibi stronger when discussing a unity government.

As always the two parties least likely to get my vote are Likud and Labour