Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Hnv1]

As I gather from my Russian friends they don't care much for Russian MKs who they view as politicos who never do anything real for the community. After 25 years the community also diversified a lot and I suspect the Russians living in the periphery who voted YB thus far are going to break strongly toward JH and Kachlon/Lapid. Liberman I predict is done.

Haaretz endorse Labour and than Meretz (first time they endorse Labour since the 90s I think).

It's prediction time:
Labour - 25
Likud - 20
Joint list - 13
JH - 12
Lapid - 12
Kachlon - 10
Shas - 8
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Yachad - 5
Liberman - 4

[Hnv1]

It goes beyond YB. Other parties also have fewer "Russians" than in the past. If it were the matter of intergration, given the large number of active age "Russians" in Israel you would expect more Russian MKs in the non-Russian faction, not less.

The old generation of politicos are well old and attract no votes and the new integrated generation is still very young. I suspect that in 10 years time there will be a massive surge on that matter

[Hnv1]

last minute prediction: JH will fall and likud will boost up to maybe even Labour who did the mistake of not attacking Lapid enough. Shas also falls badly

[Hnv1]

A crucial question is what will happen to YB, Yachad and Meretz.

I am still to find anybody, who is openly planning to vote for YB. I have seen some Russian-language bloggers who are voting Likud (mostly), JH (many, though many saying they might switch to Likud),  Yachad, YA, Kulanu and even Meretz (actually, probably even the Joint Kist, but I have not checked the usual suspects). But I am still to see anybody saying they would vote or advocating voting for YB. If they fail to cross the 3.25% threshold it would change the coalition calculus quite a bit. Of coruse, Yachad and Meretz are also in danger. This might be the main source for surpizes tomorrow.

Link or it didn't happen.

I know quite a few Russians who vote Meretz I'm not surprised by this at all. BTW fun fact, in the 90s they took all party platforms translated it to Russian and erased party names and Meretz platform was most popular among Russian immigrants.

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

[Hnv1]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

I don't really group them together either and can't say I know much of their voting patterns. I did a quick look on some towns and cities I know there's a big 'Kavkaz' population and it seems Likud+YB dominated very strongly last time with JH coming second and surprisingly YA third. They are generally more religious compared to the secular Russians yet I still doubt even Yishai can appeal to them

[Hnv1]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

I don't really group them together either and can't say I know much of their voting patterns. I did a quick look on some towns and cities I know there's a big 'Kavkaz' population and it seems Likud+YB dominated very strongly last time with JH coming second and surprisingly YA third. They are generally more religious compared to the secular Russians yet I still doubt even Yishai can appeal to them

Well, considering that Shas has recently had a Bukharan and a Georgian MK, why not?

Might be with earlier immigrants\very religious ones. I just can't see the appeal for more traditionalists with Yishai. But can't say I know that sector very well so we'll have and see the results to see if there was any sway  

[Hnv1]

Turnout is highest since 1999, I actually went back home without voting because of the massive cue at the ballot. From chats around my precinct there is a large swing toward Labour

[Hnv1]

This was indeed a very hard morning. Positives: Marzel and Yishai out, Bennet humiliated, Liberman nearly extinct. Negatives: Bibi won a "landslide" (well by our current terms) meaning his narrow right government is going to last all 4 years, I see the immersion of Meretz in Labour as inevitable now.

Results from my ballot box:
Labour 38.77%
Likud 15.56%
YA 13.58%
Meretz 11.85% (I think having my entire family vote in this single box makes a strong swing...)
JH 6.91% (shocking really! lots of old school national religious folks around)
Kulanu 6.42%
Liberman 2.72%

My entire precinct:
Labour 41.8%
Likud 17.3%
YA 15.3%
Meretz 8.2%
Kulanu 7.1%
JH 6.1%
Liberman 2%
all the rest 2%

[Hnv1]

Predictions for the future:
- The new threshold will lead to immersion in the blocs soon. I suspect YB and Meretz immersed in Likud and Labour before the next elections.
- not enough room in the centre. I think Lapid's time in the opposition will make YA vaporize by next time (with some of its MKs trying to get in Labour).
- Shas and UTJ are heading to internal turmoil. I believe Shas will soon be torn apart from the inside.
- Yuval Diskin is warming up on the sidelines. I think the politicos at Labour understand they need an ex-general\security figure to win an election and Diskin is by far the most likely candidate (I tend to believe Herzog will step down by his own free will).
- Sylvan Shalom will resign and leave politics soon.

[Hnv1]

Predictions for the future:
- The new threshold will lead to immersion in the blocs soon. I suspect YB and Meretz immersed in Likud and Labour before the next elections.
- not enough room in the centre. I think Lapid's time in the opposition will make YA vaporize by next time (with some of its MKs trying to get in Labour).
- Shas and UTJ are heading to internal turmoil. I believe Shas will soon be torn apart from the inside.
- Yuval Diskin is warming up on the sidelines. I think the politicos at Labour understand they need an ex-general\security figure to win an election and Diskin is by far the most likely candidate (I tend to believe Herzog will step down by his own free will).
- Sylvan Shalom will resign and leave politics soon.

What makes you say this? What has he done to indicate he's planning on running for leadership besides bash Netanyahu?

Creating a platform (facebook\ynet\yediot) to address people and making himself known along with working with party activists on V15 campaign. This was a snap election and for many reasons he couldn't get in now (and he really wanted) but next time around he will surely be in. Also by knowing how Labour works and talking to their activists. Dagan also bashes BB all the time the difference is he doesn't do any field or political work at all unlike Diskin.
The Labour politicos pushed for Herzog because they didn't have any ex-general at hand with Ashkenazi deep in the mud, Diskin will be invited in soon enough.

Also from Labour activists I gather Holdai (mayor of tel aviv) also has hopes for leadership.

[Hnv1]

Also from Labour activists I gather Holdai (mayor of tel aviv) also has hopes for leadership.

Huldai's been mayor since 1998 though; he's had plenty of opportunities to seek the party leadership, or a spot in the Knesset, if he wants it, but he's never gone for it.

Anyway, I agree that Diskin wants in and that he'll probably run at the next elections, but I tend to think with his performance Herzog has earned himself a round two, and it'll be difficult for someone else to take over. But of course, I'm not Israeli and could well be mistaken.

Well it may sound unreasonable but he was pretty happy at being mayor and I don't think the playing field since 2003 (no way would a half term mayor run for PM) was all that inviting.

Earned a second round? I don't think the Labour base thinks he "deserves" a second round. They wanted Yechimovic out and he was the only viable option, he got a huge boost from the media but at the bottom line he was always a dull candidate. Labour needs an "ex-general" to win elections that's the only way for them. Plus, To be honest Herzog's performance wasn't that inspiring if by scaring people with "what will happen if Herzog will be PM?" Likud managed to grab some more seats at the final days.

We are heading towards 4 years of a narrow right wing government that by all predictions will be facing very difficult challenges on many fronts. Labour will want a security figure going into the next elections. And right now Diskin's been making the right sounds and he even looks like a half decent prospect for anti-security establishment lefty like me.

[Hnv1]

Shaping government:
UTJ want the health ministry (which is good and bad) and the funds knesset committee.
Shas will want the interior affairs ministry+unknown.
Liberman said he want security and he may settle for foreign affairs but BB will be facing a bloodbath in likud if one of those posts won't remain with Likud and I can't see Bennet letting Liberman get the senior job now.
JH will want internal security+unknown
Kulano will want treasury for Kachlon plus another one for Galant.

In Likud Steinitz sees himself as candidate for foreign affairs, and Arden and Katz also eye a senior ministry. Begin will probably get Law (which Yariv Levin is also eyeing).

I think Liberman will be the hard nut in this negotiation

[Hnv1]

In addition to Ilan Shochat (who is now being investigated for corruption) I understand former minister Perry from YA might resign as well.

Likud is offering JH the education ministry (which is the wet dream for every national-religious sectorist) yet Bennet with his ego wants a top minister position. If he keeps this up his party might behead him during this tenure.

[Hnv1]

An interesting outcome of this will be the decline of the "Russians", defined as "born in the USSR". Consider the last few Knessets and compare this with the current lists. This seems to be going beyond the collapse of YB.

In the 17th Knesset there were initially 16. Two left and two joined in the course of the Knesset, so by the end it was still 16.

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Michael Nudelman (Kadima), Zeev Elkin (Kadima), Natan Shcharansky (Likud), Avracham Michaeli (Shas),  Amnon Cohen (Shas), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Yosef Shagal (YB), Yuri Stern (YB) Esterina Tartman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Zachava Gal-On (Meretz). Shcharansky and Stern eventually left, but they were joined by Yuli Edelestein (Likud) and Leon Litinsky (Labor).

In the 18th Knesset there were initially at least 15, growing to 18 in the course of the Knesset. These were:

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Robert Tiviaev (Kadima), Orit Zuaretz (Kadima), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud) Avigdor Liberman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Anastasia Michaeli (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), Amnon Cohen (Shas). Later they were joined by Yulia Shamalov (Kadima), Nino Abesadze (Kadima) and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz).

In the 19th Knesset there were initially at least 10, growing to 12 in the course of the Knesset.

Yoel Razvozov (YA), Rina Frenkel (YA), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz), later joined by Alex Miller (YB) and Leon Litenetsky (YB).

For the 20th Knesset, even taking every party at its upper limit in recent polls, it seems it will be, at best, only 8 initially, and I have hard time seeing more than 10 eventually.

Yoel Razvozov (8th for YA), Yuli Edelstein (3rd for Likud), Zeev Elkin (8th for Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (21st for ZU), Avidgor Liberman (1st for YB), Sofa Landver (3rd for YB), Avracham Michaeli (8th on Shas list) and Zachava Gal-On (1st for Meretz). In fact, I could find only two more in the spots that make it at all likely they will enter Knesset because of later resignations. Interestingly, these are the two Roberts: Robert Tiviaev (28th for ZU) and  Robert Ilatov (7th for YB). The only new face this time is Ksenia Svetlova.

So, these are the "Russians" in the 20th Knesset:

Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (ZU), Yoel Razvozov (YA), Tali Ploskov (Kulanu), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Zehava Gal-On (Meretz).

A total of 9, including Ilatov who only got his seat because Shochat decided not to take his. By place of birth it is 3 Russia (Svetlova, Razvozov, Landver), 2 Ukraine (Elkin and Edelstein - though, in the latter case, it is a bit of an accident), 2 Moldova (Liberman and Ploskov), 1 Lithuania (Gal On) and 1 Uzbekistan (Ilatov) - no Georgians this time.

Interestingly, two new MKs had to give up their Russian citizenship before beeing sworn in. One is Svetlova (onr of only two "new" MKs on this list). Another, quite unexpectedly, is Hadash's Abdullah Abu Maaruf, No. 13 on the Joint List, who went to medical school in Russia - and, I guess, got naturalized while there.

Not an expert on USSR immigration policy but I assume Maaruf married whilst studying\married a soviet citizen

[Hnv1]

Liberman announces his going for opposition (political hail Mary I reckon), thus incoming coalition will stand on the narrowest majority of 61. He may try to sway Labour in later on the road, but we're going to have quite a bumpy ride at start.

[Hnv1]

Most likely, Bibi will tell the president he has a government and than in the week toward the inauguration sign the coalition deal with JH thus getting the slim majority by then

[Hnv1]

What would happen if there was an early election? Beytenu would be out of the Knesset. Probably Meretz too. Would Jewish Home be punished further for not cooperating? Could we see a return to the 80s where Labor and Likud are getting like 80% of the vote together?

Why would Meretz do any worse than last time? If anything, their voters seemed quite happy they made it.

They'll be a small boost for Meretz as Labour won't have to let's win effect to sway voters second time around.
Anyway there won't be a second election, Labour's old guard will just make Herzog crawl at one point into a unity government and that is why I will never vote Labour.

Now Liberman is going to do what he does best, populist racism to regain right wing voters

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu was trying to peel off Orly Levy even before the election. I imagine she will eventually switch. Especially now that her brother is a Likud MK.

No she won't, not after he gave a veto on giving her the vocation knesset committee when they still negotiated. It's more likely Liberman will use her brother and other proxies to wreck havoc at the likud ranks.

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Labour has the option to really make the coalition's life a living hell if they make the opposition work together. Lapid is an idiot (but we already knew it), the SC will kick him down its stairs.

In other news, soon to be minister of justice MK Shaked wants to change the judges election process and restrict judicial constitutional review. I for one am not that opposed in contrast to the Pavlovian response by the rest of the left.

[Hnv1]

BB was forced to give some more posts in the defence cabinet (shaked, Katz, Elkin) so he'll probaly had some more members and then create an alternative smaller defence cabinet (probably reserving Begin for that).

At the ministries BB took to himself each will have a deputy who will de facto organize it. Hotobly at the foreign affairs, Litzman at health, Akoonis at the communication (although titled as a minister), and Aiub Kara at regional cooperation.
Speaking of Aiub Kara...he threatened not to support the new government unless he gets a chair. On the Thursday morning he staged a fake hospitalization with him being led by a stretcher, needless to say he was perfectly healthy several hours later when he got the post...

BTW this new government structure will allow a change with Labour stepping in at any time, JH ministries plus Foreign Affairs will go to them.

[Hnv1]

If Labour steps in JH steps out?!

Yes.

On a left wing POV the worse bit of this government is that appointment of Ben Dahan as deputy Minister of Defence with authority on the Israeli Civil Administration. That body practically runs the lives of Palestinians in the West Bank and has direct control on all land planning there. Needless to say giving control over that function to a far-right character who compared Palestinians to animals in the past will not help this gunpowder barrel waiting to explode.

[Hnv1]

How is the ZU holding up in opposition? No cracks as of yet?

Part for a little scene with Yechimovic saying she's against maintaining a joint leadership (Herzog-Livni) past the elections, Alles gut.
It will get more interesting later this year when they have a leadership race

[Hnv1]

How is the ZU holding up in opposition? No cracks as of yet?

Part for a little scene with Yechimovic saying she's against maintaining a joint leadership (Herzog-Livni) past the elections, Alles gut.
It will get more interesting later this year when they have a leadership race

Any new talk of Labor going in a new direction. I'm sure they're not dumb and realize that having a defense oriented leader is more electable...

Ron Holdai (Tel Aviv mayor, former IAF colonel) stated he is thinking of running for leadership, I think he can appeal to YA voters style a bit more. The only suitable ex-def candidates are either Diskin and maybe Ganz, so far quite on that section. We'll have to wait and see but personally I think 26-7 is Labour ceiling right now even with an ex-gen, to rise above this has more to do with Likud losing than whoever Labour fields.