538 Model Megathread

[Seriously?]

Nate Silver predicts Trump will never win the Republican nomination!

[Seriously?]

Nate Silver may suck when it comes to primaries, but he is so far 100/100 in predicting how each state will go in a general election.

So what? Most of us that are honest on here could probably hit somewhere between 47 and 51 (states + DC) once the general election rolls around assuming the polling data is somewhat accurate and comprehensive.

Silver will weigh the polls a bit, but from a pure numbers perspective, if you follow the polling enough, you'll do pretty well.

Silver did miss in the off-year election by a seat or two in the Senate, IIRC.

[Seriously?]

For the first time in forever, Trump has passed 40% in 538's polls-plus model.

Projected as the favorite in both Ohio and Florida. That doesn't make any sense.

The model doesn't make any sense this far out.

Trump now projected as the favorite in Nevada!!! They're adjusting all polling in the wrong direction!

LOL. Same in NH.

Trump +3 nationally would do that to NV, OH, FL, NH, PA, probably IA, CO, VA etc., etc. etc. It's basic math.

Obama won by around 4.5% in 2008. Trump at +3 is a 7.5% swing. Those states would end up in the Trump camp.