Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[JerryArkansas]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

It isn't bed as much as a bad version of a good model starting to get people excited for no good reason.

[JerryArkansas]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

It isn't bed as much as a bad version of a good model starting to get people excited for no good reason.

What's the difference between early voting thread?

What you did there, was projecting as well, no?

You didn't read the post. 

[JerryArkansas]

Ummm hello they have Jill Stein at 1.7% in Nevada. JILL STEIN IS NOT ON THE BALLOT! This is a sham.

Bad version of a good system.

[JerryArkansas]

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

Arch isn't bed-wetting. People here are just taking this way too seriously. These aren't actual, raw numbers from counted ballots that say Clinton or Trump. In most instances, they are far too small a percentage of the eventual turnout to amount to anything meaningful (ie Pennsylvania). That some people think this shows anyone is winning any state is dumb.

So was early voting. Right? It is exactly the same.

Wow IA, OH, and FL all look good for trump.

lol, okay. I'm leaving this thread. I decided not to follow the model for the same reasons this thread is going nuts right now.

Stop bed-wetting. It is fun, no?

It isn't bed as much as a bad version of a good model starting to get people excited for no good reason.

What's the difference between early voting thread?

What you did there, was projecting as well, no?

You didn't read the post. 

Yes, I did. Early voting thread also made people "to get people excited for no good reason."

It is exactly the same.

No it isn't.

[JerryArkansas]

I am not going to trust this, Stein isnt on the ballot in Nevada

And Trump within 6 in Clark.  It is sh**t.

[JerryArkansas]

Haha, Dems were OK with CO projection, where Hillary did much better than Obama, but now it a trash because of Nevada

CO is not a projection, it is the modeled vote of individual people matched against the voter file who have already actually voted.

This is apparently different from other states where they do not have voter file individual level data on who has voted, but only know the total # of people who have voted in particular precincts (but not necessarily which individuals have voted in those precincts).

And including Stein in Nevada is of course obviously a dumb screw up.

And there is a difference in what early vote means in different states.

So basically there are large differences in what they are reporting for different states.

But those with large EV, as Nevada? Does they not use voter file for EV there?

They are missing votes both there and in Florida. 

[JerryArkansas]

They are missing votes both there and in Florida. 

I know they are. But they are using voter file for EV in all states, right?

If it was a good model it should.  Considering how bad it is so far I doubt it.

[JerryArkansas]

They are missing votes both there and in Florida. 

I know they are. But they are using voter file for EV in all states, right?

If it was a good model it should.  Considering how bad it is so far I doubt it.

What, specifically, has been so awful about it so far? Do we know there are systematic issues in the algorithms they are running or the data they are pulling? We know some of the data is a bit off perhaps, but do you have tonights results to compare the current projections too? Because if you don't I really don't think its wise to label it as a 'good' or 'bad' model at this point.

It is missing three million votes in Florida, about one hundred thousand in Nevada.  Has people as options that aren't on the ballot, and options that are are not mention.  Any person who makes a model should know these things and have them in it.

[JerryArkansas]

They are missing votes both there and in Florida. 

I know they are. But they are using voter file for EV in all states, right?

If it was a good model it should.  Considering how bad it is so far I doubt it.

What, specifically, has been so awful about it so far? Do we know there are systematic issues in the algorithms they are running or the data they are pulling? We know some of the data is a bit off perhaps, but do you have tonights results to compare the current projections too? Because if you don't I really don't think its wise to label it as a 'good' or 'bad' model at this point.

It is missing three million votes in Florida, about one hundred thousand in Nevada.  Has people as options that aren't on the ballot, and options that are are not mention.  Any person who makes a model should know these things and have them in it.

it will update those numbers, are you an idiot?

It has been 3 hours and those early votes are still not there.

[JerryArkansas]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

You freaking mean they just allotted the damn early vote based on today's vote.  God damn they are amateur hour.