Canadian federal election - 2015

[politicallefty]

The Conservatives are trying to keep the Saskatchewan "rurban" ridings in place? Ugh. I know it won't benefit them by having a more reasonable map, but it's still absurd to hack apart cities as the current map does. Their problem is that they cannot keep 13/14 ridings with a more reasonably drawn map. With cities intact, the NDP should easily win some seats in the province, which they haven't been able to do since 2000.

With that said, how do the other provinces gaining seats look?

I know Alberta is the Conservative fortress, but can the opposition make some gains? Edmonton-Strathcona seems to have been fairly solidified in the NDP camp. What would come next for them now? What about the Liberals? And can any other party potentially break into Calgary?

My other question is how thew new proposed maps ultimately deal with the balance of power. How do the proposed lines in each of Ontario, Quebec, and BC favour the parties?

[politicallefty]

Looking at the new post-distribution maps, I'm curious to know what the seat breakdown is for that map (preferably by province). Obviously, the Conservatives looked to have gained quite a few ridings in Alberta, Ontario, and BC. However, they also appear to have lost some seats, notably two seats to the NDP in Saskatchewan (now that the rurban ridings have been eliminated).

[politicallefty]

The NDP won seats in Saskatchewan in every election until 2004 and in each of the '04, '06, '08 and '11 elections while the NDP was shut out in Sask it was largely bad luck from having a couple of very near misses in each of those elections.

The NDP shut-out in Saskatchewan has to almost certainly be a result of the "rurban" ridings that existed throughout those elections. With the current map and 2011 results, the NDP would have won two seats in Saskatchewan (one in Regina and one in Saskatoon). I think it's reasonable to assume that the NDP would have had at least some representation in Saskatchewan prior to 2011 as well.

[politicallefty]

Obviously, Canadian polls are horrendously unreliable at this point. If there's one thing I know about Canadian voters, it is that they are extremely volatile until the end. In any case, I do wonder what the Conservatives would have to get to from another government. If the Tories get into the 150-160 range with the Liberals and NDP splitting the opposition, it seems like things get somewhat more complicated. Even with a plurality, I don't think there's any way the Conservatives are able to form a government with less than roughly 140-145 seats.

It would seem like one of the prerequisites to allowing a Conservative Minority would be to require Harper's resignation. (I'm pretty sure virtually all Liberal and NDP voters want Harper out of office.) On the other hand, a leadership election would likely coincide with the failure of that minority to hold confidence. I'm sure the left would love to catch the right off guard, but I can't see them setting themselves up for that position.

Lastly, I've been looking at various federal projections. And, maybe because I've been looking at so many recent projections, I almost cannot believe the Tories losing their monolithic hold on Alberta. Everything I've seen has the Conservatives losing anywhere from 5 up to 9 seats in Alberta. The last time the right lost more than two seats in Alberta was 1993, when the Liberals won four seats in Edmonton. Prior to that, you have to go back to 1968 when the Liberals won four seats in the province (one in Edmonton, one in Calgary, and two in the rest of Alberta). While a breakthrough in Edmonton is conceivable, is anyone really thinking the Conservatives might actually lose their unilateral hold in Calgary and the rest of Alberta?

[politicallefty]

Did anyone notice that the Forum poll had the Conservatives up only 39-35 over the NDP in Alberta? That would be more than historic if it happened. Obviously, that's probably quite a bit closer than it should be. I'd have to imagine at least part of the NDP result in Alberta in the fall will hinge on the popularity of the provincial government. What is the general consensus with how Notley has been performing so far and what can be expected over the next couple months?

The EKOS poll does look a lot more realistic with a 50-29 Conservative lead, but even that is quite extraordinary for the NDP by historical standards (and a historical low for the right). Just for fun, but what do these two polls look if you put them in models separately (despite that the Forum poll looks like it would break any model)?

[politicallefty]

According to my model:
Forum
Con: 22
NDP: 9
Lib: 3

The NDP all but sweeps Edmonton, but their surge isn't quite big enough to to break out from there. Instead of winning 55-60% in Edmonton and 35-40% elsewhere, they win more like 40-45% in Edmonton and 25% everywhere else.

EKOS
Con: 30
NDP: 4
Lib: 0

NDP wins the most urban bits of Edmonton, plus Lethbridge and doesn't really come close anywhere else.

What's the general order of seats for the NDP based on the models? Obviously, the first two are Edmonton Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach. Is Edmonton Centre at the top? I only ask because that is the former Liberal top target in the province. In the Forum projection, I'm assuming at least two of those Liberal seats are in Calgary, correct?

[politicallefty]

I doubt the Liberals will allow the Conservatives to continue governing. Their campaign will have been all about replacing Harper with a fresh start, and Justin will likely get defenestrated by his caucus who would be fearful of the same fate as their UK cousins. And besides, the Liberals and NDP will have both gained seats. There is no popular mandate for the only party which lost seats to govern, at least from the popular perspective.

In that case, I think it probably depends on where each party ends up in the seat count. If the Conservatives end up at 160+, it might be particularly nasty to dislodge them from power. I think the Conservatives will probably need to be held under 150 seats, regardless of where the other parties stand. Of course, this is all a big guess considering the uncharted territory we're in in terms of Canadian politics (and I don't dare underestimate the volatility of the average Canadian voter).